TD Cowen: Progress on the crypto bill is hindered, with disputes extending beyond stablecoin yields

On April 23, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the disagreements surrounding the CLARITY Act go far beyond issues related to stablecoin returns. Multiple practical obstacles could slow down the legislative process. First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understaffed, with only one commissioner currently in office. In this situation, it is difficult for Congress to confidently assign more cryptocurrency regulatory responsibilities to the agency, and filling the vacant positions alone could take months. Second, the issue of prediction markets is gaining attention. Whether to include them under the purview of the bill, as well as potential concerns about insider trading and conflicts of political interests—including controversies linked to Trump-related projects—could lead some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill. Meanwhile, ongoing disputes surrounding the Trump family's cryptocurrency project, World Liberty Financial, are increasing the political sensitivity of the bill, making bipartisan consensus harder to achieve. Geopolitical factors have also become a variable. Discussions about Iran potentially using cryptocurrency payments are intensifying focus on anti-money laundering provisions, which might even lead to industry-unfavorable amendments. Additionally, some lawmakers are attempting to incorporate the Credit Card Competition Act into the bill. If this effort proceeds, it could trigger new conflicts of interest, further delaying the overall legislative process.