Macro News Highlights
Iran's foreign minister reiterated the conditions for negotiations, noting that the full resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains contingent on an agreement.
According to a signed article published on October 21 in the Financial Times by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran is willing to give diplomacy one more chance—on the condition that the United States demonstrates genuine intent to seek a fair and dignified resolution to the conflict. He called on the U.S. side to lift its maritime blockade and honor previous commitments regarding sanctions and asset freezes. Under a proposal submitted through mediators, Iran proposes advancing in phases: first restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the resumption of negotiations. In an interview aired on Iraqi state television, he also stated that Pakistan and Qatar are continuing to relay messages between the two sides and that full access for all vessels will remain off the table until a mutual understanding on the strait is reached. Zarif further warned that any further escalation of military action in the strait or elsewhere in the region would jeopardize neighboring countries and the global economy. As of this report, neither side has yet announced a formal agreement to end the conflict.
The Russian side has, in principle, agreed to resume trilateral talks in November, but a ceasefire arrangement remains unresolved.
According to an Associated Press report on October 21, Russian Presidential Assistant for Foreign Policy Ushakov stated that, following talks in St. Petersburg with U.S. envoy Wettig, Putin and Wettig had, in principle, agreed to resume trilateral negotiations among Russia, the United States, and Ukraine after November 10. The Russian side said the agenda would include security arrangements between Russia and Ukraine once the conflict ends. That same evening, Zelenskyy expressed support for the U.S. push to resume talks as soon as possible, hoping to bring the war to a close and pave the way for a leaders' meeting; however, he also noted that Russia has repeatedly signaled its willingness to meet only to later alter its plans. Following discussions in Oslo with Wettig, Norwegian Prime Minister Støre indicated that a new round of negotiations could take place in mid-November. The last such trilateral talks were held in February; while these latest statements point to a resumption of negotiations, no publicly announced ceasefire agreement has yet been reached.
Former New York Fed President Warns: AI Is Creating an Interest-Rate "Roller Coaster," and Policy Reversals May Follow the Bust
According to a commentary published by Bloomberg on October 21, former New York Fed President William Dudley argues that the AI investment boom is pushing up interest rates along two channels: capital spending—such as on data centers—directly boosts economic activity while crowding out financing resources; meanwhile, the wealth effect from rising tech stocks further supports household consumption. He notes that the scale and duration of this investment boom, as well as its impact on equity valuations, are difficult to forecast with precision, leaving both short-term and long-term interest rates subject to considerable uncertainty. Should capital‑spending growth peak or credit conditions tighten abruptly, the additional support for the economy could weaken rapidly, potentially shifting the trajectory of interest rates from continued tightening to a more rapid easing. Dudley also cautions that even if total AI investment remains elevated, a slowdown in its pace of expansion would reduce its contribution to next year's economic growth.
Anthropic launches Claude Duet, as AI agents begin to handle routine business tasks on an ongoing basis.
According to Anthropic's product announcement on October 21, the company has launched Claude Duet in research preview, initially opening waitlist sign-ups to U.S. Pro and Max subscribers. Built on Opus 5.5, the product can carry over users' memory, skills, and connected applications, operating continuously within an isolated virtual machine and browser—allowing tasks to persist even after the user shuts down their computer or phone. The system delivers daily task summaries and periodically checks linked accounts, handling emails, invoices, calendars, customer follow-ups, and store management, among other duties. Users can also add new tasks via text or voice within the same conversation. When performing actions such as sending messages, making payments, signing documents, or deleting content, the product first presents the action for approval. The company notes that Duet is aimed at professionals and small business owners, remains in research preview, and will refine its proactive reminder triggers based on feedback from testing.
OpenAI's cutting-edge models and Codex will be available on Google Cloud.
On Wednesday, local time, OpenAI announced a partnership with Google Cloud, under which cutting-edge models such as GPT‑6 Astra and Codex will be made available on the Google Cloud platform. This move will further expand OpenAI's multi-cloud distribution channels and accelerate the adoption of its models in the enterprise market. According to media reports on October 21, local time, over the coming weeks, OpenAI's state-of-the-art models and Codex agent workflows will be integrated into Google Cloud's Model Garden, while OpenAI models will also be progressively rolled out on Google's AI coding tool, Antigravity, and its agent‑based product, Gemini Agent. With Google Cloud now on board, OpenAI's model distribution network will span all three major cloud providers worldwide.
U.S. stock market行情
Chips, memory, and optics stocks rallied across the board, with the Nasdaq surging more than 1% to lead the three major indices.
On Wednesday, October 21, boosted by SpaceX's strong performance, capital flowed back into the tech sector, driving all three major U.S. stock indexes higher. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.69% to 52,856.09 points; the S&P 500 gained 0.58% to 7,757.17 points; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.05% to 26,702.86 points.
$Star Technology Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Most stocks rose, with NVIDIA up 2.54%, Apple up 1.32%, Google C down 1.62%, Microsoft up 0.2%, Amazon down 0.1%, and SpaceX up 7.79%.
$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$Up 1.97%, with 29 component stocks rising and 1 falling; only Lam Research declined by 1%. AMD gained 3.36%, ASML Holding rose 2.81%, ARM advanced 2.5%, Texas Instruments increased 2.47%, Taiwan Semiconductor climbed 1.6%, Intel edged up 1.39%, Qualcomm added 1.28%, and Broadcom rose 1.03%.
$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$Stocks rose across the board, with Western Digital up 3.89%, Seagate Technology up 3.22%, SK Hynix up 2.48%, Micron Technology up 1.96%, and SanDisk up 0.94%.
$Optical Communications (LIST23979.US)$On the other hand, CRDO rose 6.28%, Lumentum gained 3.43%, Coherent increased by 2.47%, Corning climbed 2.01%, and Marvell Technology advanced 1.81%.
$Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks (LIST20010.US)$Gains led the pack, with Strategy up 7.54%, Robinhood up 3.79%, and Coinbase up 3.65%; SpaceX drove…$Space Concept (LIST2556.US)$Strong performance, with Firefly Aerospace up 8.25% and Rocket Lab up 5.44%.
$Popular Chinese Stocks (LIST2517.US)$Most stocks declined, with TAL Education Group down 8.89%, Hesai down 5.72%, XPeng Motors down 5.55%, Pony AI down 4.55%, KE Holdings down 3.93%, Alibaba down 3.87%, JD.com down 3.62%, and Li Auto down 3.6%.
Individual Stock Information
Tesla's free cash flow has turned positive, and its full-year capital expenditure is expected to decline to $20 billion.
According to$Tesla (TSLA.US)$On October 21, following the market close, the company reported third-quarter revenue of $28.046 billion, essentially flat year over year; adjusted earnings per share were $0.48, and net profit attributable to common shareholders totaled $787 million, down 43% from the same period last year. Excluding regulatory credits, the automotive segment's gross margin rose to 18.1%, up from 16.3% in the second quarter; however, rising R&D and other expenses caused operating income to decline 56% year over year, to $718 million. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $6.263 billion, capital expenditures stood at $4.732 billion, and free cash flow reached $1.531 billion, turning positive compared with the second quarter. During the earnings call, CFO Tanya Maksimova lowered the full-year capital expenditure forecast from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion, with funding primarily sourced from operating cash flow. Meanwhile, Musk noted that the proposed merger with SpaceX remains uncertain and will require review by a special committee.
Meta's revenue grew 26% and it raised its capital expenditure forecast, planning to establish Class C shares without voting rights.
According to$Meta Platforms(META.US)$On October 21, after the market closed, the company reported third-quarter revenue of $64.601 billion, up 26% year over year; ad impressions increased by 10%, average ad prices rose by 14%, and daily active users reached 364 million. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to range from $73.0 billion to $76.0 billion, and narrowed its full-year capital expenditure guidance from $130.0 billion to $145.0 billion to $135.0 billion to $145.0 billion. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $34.91 billion, while free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion. The financial report included a $9.89 billion settlement related to multi-state lawsuits concerning adolescent mental health, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $3.83; excluding this charge, earnings per share were $7.40. Additionally, the Board approved the creation of non-voting Class C shares, which are slated to take effect in January next year, with a one-time stock dividend distributing one Class C share for each outstanding Class A or Class B share.
Lam Research's quarterly revenue grew 54% year over year, and its guidance for next quarter remains raised.
According to$Lam Research (LRCX.US)$Following market close on October 21, the company reported fiscal‑quarter revenue of $8.219 billion as of September 27, up roughly 22% from the previous quarter and about 54% year over year. Adjusted gross margin was 52.4%, operating margin stood at 40.2%, and adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.20. Equipment systems revenue totaled $5.733 billion, while customer support and other revenues reached $2.487 billion—both exceeding the same period last year. For the next fiscal quarter ending December 27, the company forecasts revenue of $8.6 billion, plus or minus $400 million, with adjusted EPS of $2.33, plus or minus $0.15, and a midpoint guidance for gross margin of 52.5%. CEO Tim Archer stated that AI‑driven chip demand and rising device complexity are expanding opportunities in manufacturing equipment, and the company's prior investments in technology and capacity are helping it capitalize on this industry expansion.
Texas Instruments reported a 28% increase in revenue, driven by improved demand from both the data center and industrial sectors.
According to$Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$On October 21, following market close, the company reported third-quarter revenue of $6.055 billion, up 28% year over year and 11% quarter over quarter; net profit reached $2.425 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of $2.62. During the earnings call, the company noted that revenue grew across all end markets and regions, with industrial revenue surging more than 40% year over year, automotive up roughly 10%, and data center revenue climbing about 95% year over year and 20% quarter over quarter. Analog‑chip and embedded‑processing revenues increased 32% and 21%, respectively, year over year. The quarterly gross margin hit 64%, up 280 basis points from the prior quarter. For the fourth quarter, the company forecasts revenue of $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion and EPS of $2.45 to $2.79. Operating cash flow for the quarter was approximately $3.4 billion, capital expenditures totaled $463 million, and free cash flow over the past 12 months stood at about $8.4 billion, including roughly $1.6 billion in incentives under the CHIPS Act.
IBM raises its full-year free cash flow outlook, with software and infrastructure revenues growing.
According to$IBM Corp(IBM.US)$On October 21, following market close, the company reported third-quarter revenue of approximately $17.1 billion, up 5% year over year and 6% on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.95, up 11% year over year. Software revenue totaled $7.8 billion, an 8% increase, with Red Hat growing 11% and the data business expanding 19%, while the automation segment declined 3%. Infrastructure revenue reached $3.7 billion, up 4%, driven by a 31% surge in distributed infrastructure, though IBM Z mainframe revenue fell 20%. Consulting revenue was roughly $5.3 billion, essentially flat year over year. Free cash flow for the quarter stood at $3.0 billion, $700 million higher than the same period last year. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance of 4% to 5% constant-currency revenue growth, raised its full-year free cash flow target to exceed $1 billion, and announced a quarterly dividend of $1.69 per share, payable on December 10.
Berkshire's stock hit a intraday record high as investors gradually emerged from the shadow of "Buffett's departure."
$Berkshire Hathaway-B(BRK.B.US)$During the session, the stock rose as much as 0.65% to $543.34, hitting a new all-time high since May 2 last year, but then quickly reversed course in the final five minutes, closing down 0.15% at $538.99. In less than a year in office, Abel has implemented a series of measures, gradually leaving his mark on the company. Following a reshuffle of the management team, the 64-year-old Abel began tapping into the substantial cash reserves accumulated by his predecessor. He resumed share buybacks and executed two consecutive transactions, each worth several billion dollars. However, it's worth noting that Berkshire still holds a sizable cash pile. According to Meyer Shields, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, higher short-term interest rates in the U.S. are helping to bolster Berkshire's stock price.
The "Xinyun" business model has come under scrutiny, with industry executives emphasizing that the selling price of computing power continues to rise.
$NEBIUS(NBIS.US)$A senior executive recently stated that the AI‑powered cloud company has seen a surge in computing power that has exceeded expectations. As investors increasingly focus on the "neocloud" business model, this remark sends a relatively optimistic signal. Recently, investors have grown more cautious, partly because the "neocloud" giants…$CoreWeave(CRWV.US)$The five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread has risen to levels typically regarded as indicative of financial stress. In response, Nebius Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky stated that Nebius and CoreWeave are in different situations, as "we have not taken on debt of their scale." He also noted that if Nebius brings its 2027 computing capacity online, the company will be able to sell it all. As companies compete for computing power, a "similar situation" may arise in 2028, suggesting that the long-term demand outlook remains optimistic.
A high-risk PHP vulnerability was leaked, prompting hackers to launch an attack; Cloudflare rose more than 8% during trading.
Information about a critical PHP vulnerability was leaked early on the 20th, local time. The flaw has been lurking for more than a decade, leaving a large number of websites worldwide at risk of attack, and governments in several countries have urgently shut down their sites to mitigate the threat. An official patch was released on the 21st. Cybersecurity stocks surged in response.$Cloudflare(NET.US)$The stock surged more than 8% during trading. According to media reports on Wednesday local time, a PHP vulnerability that had remained dormant for over a decade was independently discovered in August this year by cybersecurity firms Calif and Wiz, each leveraging AI. The parties then collaborated under non-disclosure agreements to patch the flaw for nearly two months. However, just one day before the patch was scheduled to be released—on the 20th, local time—the vulnerability details were leaked online, forcing the PHP security team to confirm the disclosure and announce the release date. Taking advantage of the situation, hackers launched an attack hours before the patch went live.
Top 20 in Trading Volume
Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook
Southbound capital reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by over HK$4.4 billion, while Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable received net purchases exceeding HK$200 million; Tencent was subject to net sales of over HK$1.7 billion.
On Wednesday, October 21, southbound capital net sold HK$4.435 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks.
$YOFC Fiber Optic Cable (06869.HK)$、$China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK)$、$GenScript Biotech - One Thousand (01548.HK)$They recorded net purchases of HK$253 million, HK$173 million, and HK$23.68 million, respectively;
$Tencent (00700.HK)$、$China Mobile (00941.HK)$、$Alibaba-W(09988.HK)$They were net sold off to the tune of HK$1.706 billion, HK$1.034 billion, and HK$878 million, respectively.
Pop Mart has fallen for five consecutive days! Duan Yongping: I'll buy some more.
$Pop Mart (09992.HK)$As the stock price continues to adjust, well-known investor Duan Yongping has spoken out once again. On October 21, in response to a netizen's question about whether he would continue buying Pop Mart shares, Duan Yongping said on social media: "I should buy some more, but I won't exceed 10% of the company's shares—otherwise the company might have an issue." He also added that he had already expressed his views clearly: "Those who missed out for a few years will just have to accept it." From a timing perspective, the market is now awaiting Pop Mart's third-quarter operating results. The company's announcements on its third-quarter performance for 2024 and 2025 were released on October 22 and October 21 of this year, respectively.
Today's Focus
Keywords: Bank of Korea decision; U.S. Treasury auction; BE and Western Digital earnings
On the economic data front, the Eurozone released the preliminary reading for its October consumer confidence index.
In financial news, the Bank of Korea announced its interest-rate decision. At 00:00, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; at 17:30, ECB Governing Council member Kocher spoke; and at 22:00, ECB Governing Council member Panetta addressed the audience.
In the market, the U.S. Treasury will conduct a 20-year Treasury auction. Auction demand will influence U.S. Treasury yields and could spill over into tech growth stocks and gold. The Financial Street Forum concluded on the same day, and NVIDIA's GTC conference in Berlin is also entering its final day.
In terms of performance,$Nokia (NOK.US)$The results will be announced at noon Beijing time.$Spotify Technology(SPOT.US)$ 、 $American Airlines (AAL.US)$The company will release its earnings before the U.S. stock market opens, while the U.S.-listed companies that report after hours include:$Bloom Energy(BE.US)$ 、 $Western Digital (WDC.US)$ 、 $Newmont (NEM.US)$. As for the Hong Kong stock market,China Telecom (00728.HK)The company announced its key operating metrics for the first three quarters, with particular attention to growth in cloud services, computing power, and government‑and‑enterprise business.
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