① SK Hynix is scheduled to release its earnings report on Wednesday, with Samsung Electronics following closely on Thursday; ② As demand for AI chips surges and memory chip prices rise, the combined operating profit of these two memory‑chip giants is expected to reach KRW 184.4 trillion (approximately USD 139.1 billion) in the third quarter; ③ Analysts believe that HBM4 supply, long-term contracts, and shareholder returns are key to the recovery of both companies' stock prices.
This week, South Korea's "storage duopoly" will release its third-quarter 2026 earnings:$SK Hynix (000660.KR)$The earnings report is scheduled to be released on Wednesday,$Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$It will release its earnings report on Thursday, following closely behind.
With surging demand for AI chips and rising memory‑chip prices, these two memory‑chip giants are poised to deliver one of their strongest-ever earnings reports, with combined operating profit for the third quarter expected to reach 184.4 trillion won (approximately $139.1 billion).
Samsung Electronics announced preliminary results on October 8, reporting that its third-quarter revenue rose 127% year over year to KRW 195 trillion. Operating profit reached KRW 107.4 trillion (approximately USD 80.17 billion), nearly eight times the KRW 12.17 trillion recorded in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, analysts surveyed by market-tracking firm FnGuide forecast that SK Hynix's third-quarter revenue will reach KRW 98.2 trillion, with operating profit at KRW 77 trillion.
By contrast, Samsung (KRW 43.6 trillion) and SK Hynix (KRW 47.2 trillion) together reported operating profits of KRW 90.8 trillion in 2025.
Notably, if the forecast holds true, Samsung will become the first South Korean company to post quarterly operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won.
Key Focus Areas: HBM4 Supply, Long-Term Agreements, and Shareholder Returns
However, despite strong earnings expectations, the stock performance of the two storage-chip giants has remained weak recently, with no signs of recovery. Investors viewed the stellar financial results as "within expectations," so the market reaction was muted. As of the close on October 23, Samsung and SK Hynix had seen their share prices fall by 36% and 52%, respectively, from their levels at the end of June.
Analysts believe the key to the upcoming earnings reports will be whether the two companies can provide clear evidence of how long the semiconductor memory industry's boom will last and how much of the additional profits will be returned to shareholders, thereby boosting market expectations.
A senior executive in the semiconductor industry noted, "Compared with June, when stock prices were at a peak, the supply‑demand dynamics in the memory sector have indeed improved." However, he added, "Market expectations have risen so sharply that strong earnings alone are no longer sufficient to drive further gains in share prices."
Analysts believe that HBM4 supply, long-term agreements, and shareholder returns are key to the share-price recovery of both companies.
The market is currently closely monitoring the supply situation for HBM4 (the sixth-generation HBM) and the progress of mass-production preparations for HBM4E (the seventh-generation HBM).
Market research firm TrendForce forecasts that, driven by supply constraints and rising sales of high-priced HBM4, the average selling price of HBM will increase by 121% next year compared to this year. According to reports, Samsung and SK Hynix have already sold out their production for next year, so the two companies must rely on pricing negotiations and order trends for next-generation products to determine whether memory demand will exceed market expectations.
Long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are also critical for assessing the sustainability of the current storage‑chip boom. Locking in multiyear purchase volumes with customers helps mitigate the uncertainty caused by short-term market fluctuations. During its second-quarter earnings call, Samsung disclosed that it had signed LTAs with five data‑center customers, while SK Hynix finalized multiyear contracts with more than a dozen clients.
This earnings report will focus on the number of new long-term contracts secured and their share of total production capacity. This will help assess whether the two companies can sustain stable profitability following the anticipated increase in supply by 2028.
Shareholder returns represent the most direct benefit for investors. The market will also closely watch how these two chipmakers leverage their shareholder‑return policies to bolster their stock prices.
This year, Samsung Electronics announced a shareholder return plan totaling KRW 90 to 110 trillion and will finalize a third-quarter cash dividend of approximately KRW 30 trillion by the end of this month. The remaining forms and scale of returns will be determined in January next year. However, market attention is focused on whether this earnings report will outline plans for additional dividends or share buybacks.
Following SK Hynix's announcement in August of a 40 trillion‑won share buyback program, the company is expected to unveil additional shareholder‑return measures. Meanwhile, SK Hynix has halted its evaluation of a public listing for Solidigm, further boosting market expectations for enhanced returns to shareholders. Korea Investment & Securities estimates that the total amount allocated for such additional returns will reach at least 30 trillion won.
Kim Dong-won, head of KB Securities, stated, "Despite a sharp pullback in stock prices, earnings forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix have been revised upward," he added. "The key catalysts for a revaluation of these stocks are expected to be the sustainability of earnings growth and whether shareholder returns can be further enhanced."
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Editor/KOKO