What is the true extent of AI's contribution to the U.S. economy?
Zhitong Finance APP has learned that artificial intelligence (AI) is driving the U.S. economic expansion, and in recent months, this expansion has shown signs of accelerating. Economists expect that data to be released on October 29 will show that third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached its fastest pace in a year. AI is not listed as a separate item in the GDP report, but its impact spans multiple categories.
AI contributes to GDP through multiple channels, including the billions of dollars in direct investment that technology companies have poured into this technology, the ensuing boom in data-center construction, and the boost to consumer spending driven by AI‑fueled stock market gains.
So, just how much of a contribution does AI make to GDP?
This issue is controversial. Some economists argue that the impact is modest, while others estimate a substantial contribution.
Goldman Sachs's estimates are relatively conservative. Its economists note that the impact of AI is constrained by a range of factors, including AI-related imports and inflation, as well as the crowding-out effect on investment in other sectors of the economy. Goldman Sachs estimates that over the past year, AI contributed 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth. From the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, U.S. economic growth increased by 2.2%.
A July working paper released by the Federal Reserve examined business investment in software, data centers, power infrastructure, and computers and peripherals, concluding that AI‑related gains have been uneven across quarters but, over a one‑year period, account for roughly one-fifth of overall GDP growth.
The economic team at Allstate Mutual Insurance estimates that, over the past year, direct AI investment—along with spillover effects such as job creation from data-center construction and wealth generated by the AI-driven stock-market boom—contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP, accounting for roughly one-quarter of overall growth. "That's quite substantial," said Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic.
ING Groep forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow by about 2.4% in 2026, with AI's direct and indirect effects contributing roughly 0.8 percentage points—accounting for one-third of that growth.
Bloomberg Economics, meanwhile, argues that official statistics understate AI's contribution to GDP. Its estimates suggest that, had government statisticians been better able to capture the technology's impact, U.S. economic growth in 2025 would have been a stronger 3.1% rather than the reported 2.3%.
How large is the scale of U.S. investment in AI?
AI is poised to become the largest investment in U.S. history. According to Steen Nørgaard, a professor of finance and real estate at Columbia Business School, AI‑related investments in data centers, power infrastructure, semiconductors, and computing equipment are expected to total $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032—roughly 3.6% of annual U.S. GDP. This share would surpass the historical proportions allocated to canal, railroad, electrification, highway, or internet‑infrastructure projects. By comparison, the most substantial such effort—the construction of railroads from 1870 to 1890—accounted for about 2.2% of GDP.
Where does AI's quantifiable impact on GDP primarily manifest?
Spending on software, data centers, semiconductors, computers, and power infrastructure is most prominently reflected in the GDP report under the categories of equipment and intellectual property.
However, a significant portion of the spending fueling the AI boom is directed toward components manufactured outside the United States, such as chips, computers, and computer equipment. U.S. government statisticians record billions of dollars in expenditures on AI‑related goods and services, but then exclude the overseas‑produced portion from GDP calculations, since GDP measures only domestic output. Consequently, AI‑related imports depress the aggregate measure of economic growth.
How does AI impact consumer spending?
Under the so‑called "wealth effect," when wealth increases, Americans tend to spend more, even if much of that increase is merely paper wealth. Since 2024, stock markets have repeatedly hit record highs, partly driven by investors' bets on artificial intelligence. As a result, U.S. household wealth reached an all‑time high in the second quarter of this year.
Indeed, not all stock market gains can be attributed to AI, nor does everyone benefit from rising share prices. The wealthiest 10% of Americans hold roughly two-thirds of household wealth, while the bottom half owns just slightly more than 2% of the total.
However, wealthier Americans tend to hold stocks and are driving consumer spending, which is a key engine of economic growth. Some estimates suggest that roughly half of AI's contribution to economic growth stems from the wealth effect.
"We see high-income households continuing to spend robustly. They have income and also hold wealth. Meanwhile, middle- and low-income households are feeling greater financial pressure due to sluggish wage growth and rising living costs," said James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING Groep.
What impact would a decline in AI investment have on the economy?
"It's boosting the appearance of GDP growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story," said Thomas Ryan, Senior North American Economist at Capital Economics.
Other pillars of the economy include the healthcare sector, which accounted for roughly three-quarters of all new jobs over the past year. Surveys show that, as output has risen, U.S. factories have been hiring more workers in recent months. Companies across various sectors in the United States have also reported robust profits.
Even so, a slowdown in AI could still have a significant impact on the economy.
In this scenario, business investment would slow. If stock prices stop rising or decline, the wealth effect would reverse. The labor market could also be affected. For example, AI is bolstering the construction sector. Since the fall of 2024, residential builders have cut 97,500 jobs. However, the expansion of data centers has pushed nonresidential construction to record highs, enough to offset the job losses in the residential segment.
What is the long-term impact of AI on the economy?
This is a huge unknown.
In its IPO filing, AI leader Anthropic PBC stated that AI could both pose an "existential threat" to humanity and "accelerate global growth while significantly improving the quality of life for people around the world."
To date, AI's impact on productivity remains modest. However, the technology appears to be already reshaping certain labor markets; some studies indicate that it is reducing hiring of entry-level candidates in fields such as software development and customer support. A McKinsey study projects that, over the next decade, AI could compel roughly 11 million U.S. workers to seek new employment.
"Even under the best circumstances, the transition to a new AI era will be one of the most tumultuous periods in human history," Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates wrote in an article in August. He stated, "There will be some new jobs, but without the right policies, the number of new jobs will fall far short of today's levels."
Although there may be disruptive shifts in the medium term, many economists and policymakers predict that, over the long run, AI will deliver substantial benefits. In a speech in September, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated: "Looking ahead, I am optimistic that AI‑driven productivity growth can raise living standards for all Americans."
Editor/Deng