Before stepping into an April filled with suspense, let us first review the turbulent U.S. stock market in March.
Throughout March, the U.S. stock market did not continue its previous unilateral upward trend but instead exhibited a pattern of 'weak fluctuations under high volatility.' The ongoing escalation of Middle Eastern energy risks led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, with Brent crude and U.S. oil briefly reaching $119 per barrel. The surge in oil prices directly heightened market concerns about a rebound in inflation.
U.S. stock indicesFrom a technical perspectivecame under significant pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite falling into consolidation, while$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$the S&P 500 broke below the key support level of its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. As of the close on March 26, the S&P 500 had declined 5.38% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq fell approximately 8%. Over 80% of the components in the technology, discretionary consumption, and communication services sectors were once in a downward trend, and the VIX (Volatility Index) $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ also saw a noticeable increase.
The U.S. stock market is set to face a series of new significant tests and catalysts in April. Changes in macroeconomic data driven by developments in the Middle East will keep markets on edge, with the Federal Reserve's actions at the end of the month remaining the focal point. Strong attention should be paid to whether the Fed’s interest rate expectations for this year will change due to shifts in macro data.
In addition, regarding the timing of U.S. President Trump's visit to China, White House spokespersons and Trump himself announced that the visit would be postponed to May 14-15, instead of late March or early April as previously planned. China’s Foreign Ministry stated that both sides are maintaining communication on the matter of President Trump’s visit to China.
To help fellow investors better grasp the main market trends and investment opportunities, Niuniu has carefully compiled a list of must-know U.S. stock financial events for April. It is recommended to bookmark this article before reading!
1. Intensive Macro Data Bombardment: Employment and Inflation Figures Capture Market Attention
At the start of the month, employment data will set the tone for the market. On April 1, the U.S. ADP employment numbers and ISM Manufacturing PMI for March will be released consecutively; then, on April 3 (Friday) at 20:30, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate for March will be announced, which are crucial for assessing the current state of the U.S. labor market.
On the inflation front, several key indicators will be released in succession. On April 9, the US February PCE price index and the final Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate will be announced; this data was delayed due to the prior shutdown of the Federal Government. Subsequently, the highly crucial US March CPI data will be released at 20:30 on April 10, followed by the release of the US March PPI data on April 14. These inflation metrics will directly influence market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policies.
Amid renewed entanglement between Middle Eastern tensions and inflation expectations, two Federal Reserve governors spoke out on Thursday, March 26, Eastern Time. Governor Cook stated that the balance of risks has shifted, with “inflation risks now being higher” compared to employment risks. She opined that inflation risks “may persist longer than expected.”
Milan estimated that under the current operational framework, if demand for bank reserves could be reduced, the Federal Reserve's asset size could potentially decrease by $1 trillion to $2 trillion. He emphasized that the process of balance sheet reduction must be “extremely gradual” to allow financial markets time to adapt, and must be coordinated with interest rate policy to avoid market disruptions.
2. A new earnings season begins for US stocks, with Wall Street giants leading the way.
The bugle call for the earnings season has sounded again! From April 13 to 14, a new earnings season for US stocks officially begins. $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ and $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ Financial giants such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will be among the first to announce their results. As a “barometer” of the macroeconomy, the performance of these major banks and their forward-looking guidance will set the tone for the entire earnings season.
Analysts have continued to raise earnings forecasts against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Bloomberg Intelligence data shows that analysts expect S&P 500 component companies to report an 11.9% year-over-year increase in Q1 profits, up from the 10.9% forecast before the Iran conflict erupted.
Data compiled by strategist Wendy Soong also shows that earnings and revenue forecasts for the next three quarters have been raised by 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively, partly due to the diminishing impact of tariff shocks.
3. Tech giants gather again for Google Cloud Next 2026.
In the technology sector, from April 22 to 24, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ The Google Cloud Next 2026 conference will be held with great fanfare. Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI wave, attention will focus on Google's latest technological breakthroughs and strategic layout in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
The core theme of the conference is entering the 'Agent' era, with a focus on showcasing how to build, deploy, and manage AI agents capable of reasoning and independently completing tasks. It will delve into the deep integration of the Gemini model with the Google Cloud ecosystem (such as Google Workspace, Vertex AI), highlighting practical cases of its impact on enhancing enterprise productivity.
In addition, the market expects Google to present deployment data for its seventh-generation TPU and its self-developed ARM-based CPU, Axion.
4. The Federal Reserve drama takes center stage, focusing on the Fed FOMC interest rate decision.
The Federal Reserve’s movements remain the top priority this month. At 2:00 AM on April 9, the Fed will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.
The real 'climax' will arrive at the end of the month. At 2:00 AM on April 30, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections; followed by a press conference on monetary policy at 2:30 AM led by Federal Reserve Chair Powell. On the same evening at 8:30 PM, the US March PCE price index will also be released. This intensive schedule over one or two days is expected to trigger significant volatility in the US stock market and even global markets.
5. Special Reminder: Market Holidays
April 3 (Friday) is Good Friday, and the US stock market will be closed for the day. Fellow investors are advised to arrange their trading funds in advance.
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Editor/Rocky