The two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has been implemented, marking the realization of Step Nine of the 'conflict playbook' tracked by independent macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter, which involves the conclusion of an agreement and the establishment of a narrative framework. Every major confrontation within Trump's framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of 'maximum pressure for concessions,' and this step occurred 10 days later than the firm's initial forecast. More crucially, Step Ten: violent market repricing following the official announcement of the agreement may arrive within weeks.
The achievement of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is proceeding precisely according to a repeatedly verified script.
The Kobeissi Letter, an independent US macro research firm, recently stated that with Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire agreement among the US, Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of the "conflict script" it has been tracking has officially arrived—namely, the reaching of the agreement and the construction of the narrative framework. This development occurred about 10 days later than the firm's previous expectations.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that according to Trump’s transaction playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately concludes with the narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions."
The potential market impact of this development should not be overlooked. The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the tenth step—violent market repricing following the formal announcement of the agreement—will occur in the coming weeks. At that time, investors who have maintained defensive positions will face pressure to quickly unwind their positions, potentially leading to a sharp rise in stock markets, while oil prices may plummet as expectations of reopened shipping channels solidify.
Ceasefire and Tariff Suspension: The Same Logic
According to CCTV News, based on information from Iran in the early hours of August 8 local time, Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has invited delegations from Iran and the US to Islamabad, Pakistan, for negotiations. Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar also stated that the Iran-US ceasefire would take effect at 3:30 AM Iran time on August 8 (8:00 AM Beijing time). Trump stated that this ceasefire window would be used to "finalize and facilitate" the signing of a lasting peace agreement among the parties.
The Kobeissi Letter compared this two-week US-Iran ceasefire with the "90-day tariff suspension" announced by Trump in April 2025, considering them highly similar in nature.
On April 9, 2025, amid significant turbulence in the bond market, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs on most trading partners. In the following weeks, the US-China trade agreement was reached, and the market did not retest previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter noted that the timing of this ceasefire announcement almost exactly coincides with the one-year anniversary of the aforementioned tariff suspension.
The institution believes this pattern is no coincidence. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a highly consistent negotiation logic regarding the tariff war, Venezuela, Greenland negotiations, and the Iran issue: verbal pressure, maximum pressure for concessions, and ultimately concluding with a "deal."
Step Nine: The Construction of the Agreement Narrative
According to the ten-step 'conflict playbook' outlined by The Kobeissi Letter, the core of step nine involves reaching an agreement and constructing a narrative framework.
The institution noted that every major confrontation within Trump's framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of 'maximum pressure in exchange for concessions.' This pattern has been confirmed across trade agreements with the EU, India, corporate negotiations in sectors such as Intel and rare earths, and multiple conflicts resolved by Trump by 2025.
Regarding the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter suggested that if the Iranian government does not collapse, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire arrangement linked to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment plan conditioned on compliance benchmarks. The institution emphasized, 'The importance of specific structures pales in comparison to timing and the narrative framework.'
Step Ten: Await the repricing of violence.
The Kobeissi Letter warned investors that market repricing following the announcement of an agreement is often sudden rather than gradual.
This is because current market participants are generally in defensive positions — high energy exposure, compressed equity risk, and elevated volatility due to latent uncertainties. Once uncertainty dissipates abruptly, these positions will be unwound rapidly, causing concentrated market shocks.
Citing historical cases from April, August, and October 2025, as well as January 2026, the institution pointed out that each time tariffs were suspended or framework agreements were announced, stock markets experienced sharp rallies, while oil prices plummeted amid expectations of reopened shipping channels. The Kobeissi Letter concluded, 'Pattern recognition holds extremely high profit potential in this market.'
Editor/KOKO