Key Schedule for the Upcoming Week
Continue to monitor the situation in Iran and the follow-up of U.S.-Iran negotiations (full-week events).
Continue to closely monitor the situation in Iran. According to CCTV News, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the U.S.-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to reach an agreement, with significant differences remaining between the two sides. The U.S. delegation will return to the United States.
Fed officials make密集statements, and the European Central Bank releases meeting minutes.
Federal Reserve:
Tuesday TBD: The Federal Reserve Board hosts 'Strengthening the U.S. Economy through Rural Investment: Jobs Forum.'
Wednesday 00:15: Goolsbee, 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the Chicago Fed, participates in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference.
Wednesday 00:45: Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers the opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board.
Wednesday 01:00: Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed, Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, Collins, President of the Boston Fed, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board's work forum.
Thursday 01:40: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance Forum.
Thursday 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.
Thursday 20:35: Williams, permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the New York Fed, delivers a speech.
Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of speeches, and the Beige Book on economic conditions will be released on Thursday, providing investors with more key insights.
Currently, the market is gradually shifting towards a more hawkish view of the Federal Reserve, but Bank of America is challenging this trend. The bank maintains its forecast of two interest rate cuts in 2026 and has informed clients that the Fed will ultimately overlook supply-driven inflation, weak wage pressures, and political dynamics, rather than choosing to keep interest rates higher for an extended period.
Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America, acknowledged that the bank’s recent forecast revisions indicate slightly weaker growth and rising inflation. However, he stated that these changes are not significant enough to alter the interest rate outlook. Bhave wrote in the report, "Considering the Fed's tendency to look through supply-driven inflation, weak signs of wage pressure, and political pressures, we still expect rate cuts this year."
The market will focus on the minutes of the European Central Bank's March 19 interest rate meeting. At that meeting, the ECB chose to 'stand pat,' but expressed vigilance about geopolitical risks, particularly the potential disruption from the Iran conflict on energy costs and the inflation trajectory. With the preliminary March CPI unexpectedly surging from 1.9% to 2.5%, coupled with official Radov publicly urging caution against uncontrolled inflation and supporting a rate hike, market sentiment has shifted significantly. For euro traders, these minutes will be a litmus test for gauging the degree of 'hawkishness' among policymakers.
Key economic data including China’s GDP, imports and exports, consumption, industry, and real estate.
Next week, China will release a flurry of economic data, including Q1 GDP, March imports and exports, industrial production, retail sales, and real estate figures. On April 16, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the performance of the national economy.
Huachuang Securities expects GDP growth to be around 5.0%. It forecasts export growth in dollar terms at approximately 4.5% year-on-year for March, with import growth at about 5%. Retail sales growth for March is expected to be around 3.3%.
The IEA and OPEC release monthly oil market reports.
Amid Iran tensions, OPEC will issue its monthly oil market report on April 13 (the exact timing remains to be confirmed but typically falls between 18:00–21:00 Beijing time). On April 14, the IEA will release its monthly oil market report.
Report: GPT-6 may be released.
Internal leaks at OpenAI continue: GPT-6, codenamed 'Potato,' is reportedly set for release on April 14, with a 40% performance increase and a context window of 2 million tokens. It is internally defined as the 'final 20%' push toward AGI. Meanwhile, GPT-Image 2 made a stunning debut, producing images that are indistinguishable from real ones. Altman has cut Sora and is betting heavily on computing power—this AI gamble now offers no retreat.
Intensive aerospace events: The Long March 10B is expected to make its maiden flight in Hainan.
Reports indicate that the Long March 10B will make its maiden flight in Wenchang on April 19, verifying a globally pioneering sea-based mesh recovery technology. In mid-to-late April, the Zhuque-3 and Xingyun-1 will respectively conduct reuse tests and their maiden flights. Overseas, SpaceX's Starship V3 and New Glenn NG-3 are scheduled for simultaneous launches. According to CICC, global space launches may exceed 300 times by 2026.
Major industry conferences: Canton Fair, Consumer Expo, World Copper Conference, IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, etc.
Next week, a series of major industry and international conferences will be held. Domestically, the Canton Fair will open on April 15; Tencent will co-host the Data Center Liquid Cooling Technology Conference on April 16; and the Sixth Consumer Expo will take place in Hainan from April 13 to 18. From April 13 to 18, the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings will convene in Washington, D.C., coinciding with the World Copper Conference in Chile, providing cutting-edge insights into refined copper and concentrate supply and demand.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers a public speech.
Before the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision announcement on April 28, no policy committee members are scheduled to deliver major speeches this month. Kazuo Ueda's only public appearance will be on April 13 as one of several keynote speakers at a conference, where his remarks are typically brief. How the Bank of Japan communicates its policy intentions before the April meeting is crucial. Traders currently estimate a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike.
In addition, next week, U.S. Vice President Vance and Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of speeches, including a speech by Fed Governor Bowman at the Institute of International Finance Forum, a speech by New York Fed President Williams, and participation by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee in a panel discussion ahead of the World Economic Conference.
Additionally, White House Budget Director Russell Vought will testify at a Senate Budget Committee hearing on April 16.
The semiconductor price hike wave spreads, with Puyan Shares planning to raise prices domestically.
Since April, a wave of price increases sweeping through the global semiconductor industry chain has been rapidly transmitting from cost-side to the entire supply chain. Major international IDM companies such as Infineon and Texas Instruments, as well as leading domestic manufacturers like Nexchip Integration and Puya Semiconductor, have issued frequent price adjustment notices. In the chip design sector, Puya Semiconductor announced a price hike for its general-purpose MCU-related products starting April 15; other manufacturers such as Fortiori Technology, Jiejie Microelectronics, and Novosense Microelectronics have generally adjusted prices by a range of 10% to 20%.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Monday (April 13)
Keywords: Monitor developments in Iran situation, OPEC releases monthly oil market report, speech by Bank of Japan governor
In terms of financial events, continued close attention should be paid to developments in the Iran situation. According to CCTV News, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran held in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement, with significant differences persisting. Both delegations returned home.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a public speech.
In terms of economic data, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report on April 13 (the specific release time is yet to be determined, but it is usually published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time).
In terms of new stocks, $SIGENERGY (06656.HK)$ Subscription period ends.
In terms of performance, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ will announce its results before the US stock market opens.
Tuesday (April 14)
Keywords: GPT-6 may be released, IEA publishes monthly oil market report, earnings reports from companies including Citi and JPMorgan
In terms of financial events, internal leaks from OpenAI have been emerging consecutively: the GPT-6, codenamed "Potato," is rumored to be released on April 14 with a 40% increase in performance, supporting a context length of 2 million tokens, and internally defined as the "final 20%" push towards AGI.
In terms of economic data, the IEA releases its monthly oil market report.
In terms of new stocks, $GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ Subscription period ends.
In terms of performance, $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ 、$Citigroup (C.US)$、 $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ will announce its results before the US stock market opens.
Wednesday, April 15th
Keywords: Spreading wave of semiconductor price hikes, earnings reports from ASML Holding, Morgan Stanley, and other companies
In terms of financial events, since April, a wave of price increases sweeping through the global semiconductor industry chain has been rapidly spreading from the cost side to the entire supply chain. From international IDM giants like Infineon and Texas Instruments to domestic leading firms such as Nexchip Integration and Puya Semiconductor, numerous price adjustment notices have been issued.
In terms of economic data, the change in U.S. EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending April 10th.
In terms of new stocks, $SIGENERGY (06656.HK)$ Dark plate listing.
In terms of performance, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ is scheduled to release earnings before the US stock market opens, while Hong Kong-listed stocks $CATL (03750.HK)$ announced their financial reports.
Thursday (April 16)
Keywords: China's March retail sales data, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, release of the Beige Book on the US economic situation, Taiwan Semiconductor, PepsiCo, and other companies' earnings reports
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve officials will deliver a series of speeches and release the Beige Book on the economic situation on Thursday, providing investors with further critical insights.
Currently, the market is gradually shifting towards a more hawkish view of the Federal Reserve. However, Bank of America has countered this trend. BofA maintains its forecast of two interest rate cuts in 2026 and informed clients that the Fed will ultimately overlook supply-driven inflation, weak wage pressures, and political dynamics, opting not to keep rates higher for an extended period.
Regarding economic data, China's March retail sales and year-on-year GDP growth for Q1
In terms of new stock offerings, $GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ Grey market listing, $SIGENERGY (06656.HK)$ listed.
In terms of performance, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $PepsiCo (PEP.US)$ 、$Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $Alcoa (AA.US)$ 、 $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ Will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
Friday (April 17)
Keywords: China's March retail sales data, remarks by New York Fed President Williams, Taiwan Semiconductor, PepsiCo and other companies' earnings reports
In terms of new stock offerings, $GPIXEL (03277.HK)$ 、 $MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK)$ listed.
In terms of performance, $LM Ericsson Telephone (ERIC.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $CHINA TOWER (00788.HK)$ Will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/Lee