①Tesla's stock price closed higher this week, ending eight consecutive weeks of declines, driven by optimism in the chip sector; ②Tesla's global vehicle deliveries for the first quarter were below expectations, but analysts expect its revenue and adjusted earnings per share to grow year-over-year, with an anticipated increase in automotive sales gross margin; ③Morgan Stanley also predicts that the earnings call will provide updates on the Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi projects.
American electric vehicle manufacturer $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ saw its stock price close higher this week, ending a streak of eight consecutive weeks of declines. The company is scheduled to release its earnings report on April 22, and analysts currently hold a relatively optimistic view on the company’s stock price outlook.
Later on Thursday, reports indicated that Tesla is hiring chip engineers in Taiwan, which could signal the company’s attempt to poach talent from Taiwan Semiconductor. Additionally, on Wednesday, Musk announced that Tesla had completed the AI5 chip tape-out, a critical milestone before mass production.
The optimistic sentiment surrounding chips was a key factor boosting Tesla’s stock price this week. Tesla is increasingly involved in the chip industry, not only producing automotive-grade chips for its own use but also collaborating with SpaceX on the Terafab mega-chip project, which aims to produce advanced chips equivalent to one terawatt of computing power annually for use in robotics and space data centers, among other areas.
This trend toward 'chipification' may also divert market attention away from Tesla’s weak core business. At the beginning of this month, Tesla reported its global delivery volume for the first quarter at 358,023 vehicles, falling short of the expected 364,645 units, leading the market to view Tesla's electric vehicle performance in the first quarter as unusually lackluster.
Performance Outlook
Analysts forecast that Tesla’s first-quarter revenue will reach $21.92 billion, representing a 13% year-over-year increase, while adjusted earnings per share are projected at $0.36, reflecting a 33% year-over-year growth. These impressive year-over-year figures are mainly due to the fact that the first quarter of last year was Tesla’s weakest quarter in many years.
Analysts also note that the upcoming quarterly automotive sales revenue is expected to grow by 10.1%, with the automotive sales gross margin projected to reach 16%, up from 15% in the same period last year. Year-over-year growth in deliveries and the anticipated improvement in profit margins are expected to support the company’s forthcoming results.
Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2026, Tesla deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hours of energy storage systems, with revenue from its energy generation and storage business projected to reach $3.39 billion, marking a 24% year-over-year increase. Over the past three years, Tesla’s energy storage business deployment has grown at an annual rate of 168%, and with the introduction of Megapack 3 and Megablock, this growth momentum is expected to further accelerate.
In addition, analysts expect Tesla to provide updates on the progress of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi projects during this earnings call, which could significantly boost Tesla’s performance.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla’s FSD mileage will soon exceed 10 billion miles, an important milestone for the company. Considering all the data collected, this could bring more breakthroughs to Tesla’s business.
However, analysts are also concerned that Tesla's excessively high capital expenditure this year may place pressure on the company’s short-term financial condition. This year, Tesla plans to spend $20 billion, significantly higher than last year’s $8.5 billion. Moreover, its investments in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics are unlikely to see commercial implementation in the short term, thus creating uncertainty.
Editor/Rice