By exerting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has created uncertainty and risk premiums in Gulf energy supplies with the aim of driving global capital back into the U.S. market. At the same time, the U.S. is signaling to the world its intention to replace the Gulf region as a safer global energy supplier by leveraging its abundant domestic oil and gas resources.
As the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to escalate, a deeper market logic is emerging—this game revolving around the Strait of Hormuz may have been, from the outset, more than just a regional conflict but rather a meticulously designed restructuring of the global energy landscape.
The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22, with negotiations still ongoing. Brian McCarthy, managing partner at investment research firm Macrolens, stated that the probability of reaching an agreement within the next 10 days is as high as 90%. Meanwhile, oil futures have retreated to the low $80 per barrel range, and the stock market rebounded sharply last week, with the Nasdaq index even outperforming gold in terms of gains. The market is signaling through price movements: the war is nearing its end.
However, beneath the surface of the ceasefire negotiations, on April 18, Marketwatch columnist Kenneth Rapoza published a commentary article stating that the true impact of this round of conflict extends far beyond the geopolitical level. By exerting pressure and control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, the United States is attempting to redirect the flow of global capital and resources back to its own territory while sending a clear message to its allies: the United States has abundant oil and gas resources and is a safer alternative energy source than the Gulf region.
Energy Restructuring: America’s Strategic Logic
The article pointed out that several analysts believe there is a clear strategic chain of logic behind this conflict: by pressuring the Gulf energy corridor, uncertainty premiums on Asia's energy supply are being pushed higher, driving capital flows from gold into the US dollar and ultimately back into American financial markets.
Albert Marko stated outright:
"The intent here is to tighten oil supplies to Asia, drive capital from gold into the US dollar, and then filter it back into the US market to sustain the financial bubble and reinforce a narrative favorable to the United States."
The article noted that simultaneously, the United States’ domestic energy reserves are being promoted globally as an alternative solution. In January, the US Geological Survey released an assessment report confirming that the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico holds technically recoverable reserves of 28.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil.
$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$New oil and gas discoveries were announced this year in the Gulf of Mexico and by Petrobras in Brazil, drawing market attention to the hydrocarbon resource potential of the Americas.
However, the article noted that this strategy is not without flaws. Analysts pointed out that Europe, Japan, and South Korea could circumvent sanctions and turn to Russia for energy purchases, while Europe could also accelerate the adoption of alternative energy sources such as solar power.
Moreover, even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage, uncertainty remains regarding whether petrochemical and fertilizer trade routes can fully return to pre-conflict levels.
Analysts believe that the United States has imposed a 'Hormuz Passage Risk Premium' on the market through this conflict, and this premium effect may persist over the long term.
Hormuz: Market Signals Between Open and Closed
The article noted that the passage status of the Strait of Hormuz continues to fluctuate. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier stated that the strait had resumed passage, but Iran subsequently announced on Saturday that it would close the strait until the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ships and ports.
Despite the volatile situation, market sentiment has noticeably stabilized. According to Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, 'Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased continuously over the past week,' and he believes the earlier pessimistic predictions of a prolonged shutdown will prove to be overstated.
Oil price movements confirm this assessment. Crude oil futures contracts for late summer to autumn delivery have dropped to a range of $70 to $80 per barrel, reflecting the market's pricing expectations for a peaceful outlook. Political and economic advisor Albert Marko pointed out that oil prices stabilizing around $80 are 'overall bullish,' benefiting risk assets.
As expectations of a de-escalation rise, growth stocks are seen as the primary beneficiaries in a scenario of stabilized energy costs. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices has also led to valuation adjustments for some energy stocks, which analysts believe may provide investors with an entry opportunity.
Brian McCarthy, managing partner at investment research firm Macrolens, raised the probability of reaching an agreement from 85% in his previous client report to 90%, and he believes Trump’s earlier proposed 'Golden Bridge' solution — under which Iran would abandon isolation in exchange for economic normalization — remains the most likely negotiation outcome.
However, it is worth noting that if the agreement fails, oil prices will return to above $100 per barrel, and Iran will face more severe economic pressure; if an agreement is reached, the global energy market will enter a new period of stability, and the role of the United States will shift from being a 'conflict party' to an 'energy supplier.' This transformation may well be the most significant long-term variable for investors to watch in this round of geopolitical maneuvering.
Editor/Lee