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Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations on the 21st are 'highly unlikely' to result in an extension of the ceasefire if no agreement is reached. Iran has not confirmed its attendance, but reports indicate that Iranian representatives plan to travel to Islamabad for talks with the US.
Iranian media reported that Iran has not changed its decision not to participate in the negotiations. The ongoing US maritime blockade of Iran remains a key obstacle to negotiations. Iranian officials believe that the negotiation-related information reported by US media may be a deception and are preparing for the possibility of renewed military confrontation. However, US media reports suggest that Iranian representatives are formulating plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with the US, and if Vance goes, the Iranian parliamentary speaker is also prepared to attend.
The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that a comprehensive assessment will determine the next course of action. Iran's Supreme Leader reiterated the three fundamental positions, including war reparations. The Iranian parliamentary speaker emphasized that negotiations under the shadow of threats are unacceptable. Reports indicate that Vance will postpone negotiations with Iran until Tuesday, contradicting Trump’s earlier statements.
Trump stated that the US maritime blockade on Iran will not be lifted until an agreement is reached, arguing that Israel 'never convinced' him to go to war with Iran. According to senior Iranian officials, Pakistan is actively mediating efforts to persuade the US to lift the maritime blockade on Iran and ensure Iran's participation in the negotiations.
Trump expressed willingness to meet with senior Iranian leaders if significant progress is made. He also announced that US Vice President Vance and the US delegation will arrive in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, 'within hours.'
British media: At least 26 ships involved in Iran shipping broke through the US military blockade.
According to British media reports, since the US military imposed a blockade on Iranian ports on the 13th, more than 11 oil tankers carrying Iranian cargo have successfully breached the blockade. Since the US expanded its blockade of Iranian shipping last week, over 10 vessels have managed to navigate through the restricted area.
A dramatic shift occurred in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend! On Saturday, more than 20 vessels passed through, while on Sunday, zero vessels transited due to escalating US-Iran tensions. A stunning reversal unfolded in the Strait of Hormuz: over 20 vessels crossed on Saturday, marking the highest level in nearly seven weeks, including Saudi crude oil and Iranian petroleum products. However, on Sunday, traffic plummeted amid rising conflict. The US military forcibly seized the Iranian cargo ship 'TOUSKA,' prompting Iran to announce retaliatory measures to restrict shipping once again. Data indicates that within the past 36 hours, 35 vessels reversed course while exiting the strait.
Iran pledged to ensure unimpeded passage for Russian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, during a phone call between the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran, the Iranian side confirmed its commitment to ensuring unrestricted passage for Russian ships and cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian side emphasized the need to continue diplomatic efforts to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control and avoid renewed armed confrontation.
Kuwait announced that its crude oil and refined product exports are facing 'force majeure' as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a chain reaction. Due to the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has officially invoked force majeure clauses to suspend some crude oil and refined product shipments. Current oil and gas production in Kuwait has dropped to its lowest level since the early 1990s, and insiders suggest that even if the conflict ends, full capacity restoration will take time.
Excerpts from Wash's confirmation hearing speech revealed a commitment to strict independence in monetary policy, stating that the Federal Reserve's independence primarily depends on itself.
The disclosed opening remarks showed that Warsh stated the necessity of ensuring the strict independence of monetary policy implementation. He believed that comments from politicians on interest rates were not a real threat to the Federal Reserve, as its independence was upheld by discipline and rigorous practices. He warned against the expansion of the Fed's functional boundaries, urging it to 'stay within its role.' 'Inflation is a choice,' and price stability is the Fed's 'talisman,' for which it must take full responsibility 'without excuses or evasion.'
Warsh’s Tuesday hearing: Can a shift from 'hawkish' to 'dovish' convince Congress? Independence and inflation expectations became the focal points. The core issue of this hearing, held Tuesday evening Beijing time, centered on the conflict between 'commitment to rate cuts' and 'defending the Federal Reserve's independence.' His shift from hawkish to dovish stances triggered politicization concerns, compounded by a Department of Justice investigation and Republican opposition, casting uncertainty over his confirmation prospects. If he fails to clearly support independence, it could drive up long-term interest rates and undermine global central bank credibility.
Goldman Sachs Trader: US Stocks Are Poised for a Pullback This Week
The head of Goldman Sachs' U.S. trading division warned that the total leverage ratio of the U.S. stock market has reached 310%, placing it at the 98th percentile over a five-year period, while the net leverage ratio is only at the 21st percentile, indicating structural imbalances that may carry risks of deleveraging. Momentum from CTA buying is waning, and technical tailwinds are receding. Over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, causing oil prices to surge nearly 8% in a single day, with U.S. stock futures markets reacting negatively—indicating that a correction may be imminent. Going forward, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on emerging markets and fertilizers.
The CIO of a hedge fund predicted: After this round of gains in the U.S. stock market peaks, interest rates will return to zero, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may expand significantly once again!
As the Nasdaq continues to rise to new highs, some institutional capital is betting on a "generational blow-off top". Eric Peters predicts that the S&P 500 could surge another 35%–40% over the next 3–6 months, driven by AI infrastructure, energy exports, and foreign capital inflows. He is also pre-emptively positioning in gold and U.S. Treasuries, betting on interest rates returning to zero or even negative levels. However, he warns that Baby Boomer sell-offs and AI-driven job displacement could trigger a severe bear market after the peak, as risks are quietly accumulating behind the current euphoria.
IDC: Global smartphone shipments projected to plummet by 13% in 2026, with Q1 already showing a 4.1% decline.
IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 13% year-over-year in 2026, decreasing by approximately 160 million units to around 1.1 billion units, with the market facing significant contraction pressures. Q1 data has already confirmed this trend, showing a 4.1% year-over-year drop in shipments, with low-end models being hit the hardest. Samsung and Apple have shown relative resilience due to their high-end product lines, but overall demand prospects for the entire supply chain remain conservative.
Li Qiang emphasized strengthening energy technology innovation, accelerating the construction of a new energy system, and promoting green and low-carbon transformation in energy production and consumption patterns.
It is essential to fully tap the potential of renewable energy supply, adhere to a unified national strategy, and expedite the development of clean energy bases such as wind and solar power in the northwest, hydropower in the southwest, and offshore wind power in the east. Vigorous efforts should be made to develop distributed photovoltaics and decentralized wind power while adapting to local conditions to harness biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy, promoting integrated and coordinated development of new energy sources.
U.S. stock market recap
Uncertainty looms over US-Iran negotiations, and prospects for an extended ceasefire appear bleak. Major US stock indices retreated, with the Nasdaq ending its 13-day winning streak, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling from record highs.
The semiconductor index extended its gains for 14 consecutive days, marking the longest rally in over a decade. Following reports of negotiations with Google to co-develop AI chips, Marvell Technology surged nearly 6%, while Broadcom fell nearly 2%. Heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weighed on airline and cruise stocks, though fertilizer stocks rebounded. Norwegian Cruise Line dropped nearly 3.5%, American Airlines fell more than 4%, and Dow Inc gained over 3%. Aevex, a drone manufacturer, closed over 20% higher on its second day of trading.
The retreat in US Treasury prices moderated during the session, with yields briefly turning lower. The dollar index failed to sustain its rebound, turning negative during the session and failing to move further away from a one-and-a-half-month low. Offshore renminbi broke above 6.82 at one point, rallying over 100 pips from its intraday low. Bitcoin regained levels above $76,000 during the session, surging nearly 4% from its intraday low.
In commodities, oil prices staged a strong rebound after a sharp plunge the previous day. During the session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose nearly 9%, and Brent crude climbed nearly 8%, closing up nearly 6%, marking the largest gain in over two weeks. Gold and silver retreated, with futures gold falling nearly 3% and silver futures dropping nearly 4%, before paring more than half of their losses.
Among popular tech stocks, NVIDIA rose 0.19%, Tesla fell 2.03%, Apple gained 1.04%, Intel declined 4.09%, and Meta dropped 2.56% at yesterday's close.
Among the popular Chinese stocks, Taiwan Semiconductor fell by 1.15%, Alibaba declined by 0.60%, PDD Holdings dropped by 0.56%, Legend Biotech surged by 18.42%, and United Microelectronics rose by 8.40% at the close.
The hydrogen energy sector experienced an overall increase, with FuelCell Energy rising by 19.31%, Plug Power surging by 15.83%, and Ballard Power Systems climbing by 7.09% at market close.
Individual stock information
Apple leadership transition: Cook to step down as CEO in September, succeeded by hardware chief John Ternus.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The company announced its most significant leadership transition in over a decade, with Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering John Ternus set to take over as CEO on September 1st, while Cook transitions to the role of Executive Chairman. In a memo to employees, Cook emphasized that this is the 'right time' for a role change and stated his commitment to closely collaborating with Ternus throughout the summer to ensure a smooth transition.
BlackBerry shares soared over 13% after expanding its edge AI collaboration with NVIDIA.
In terms of news, $BlackBerry (BB.US)$ BlackBerry expanded its collaboration with NVIDIA to advance safety-critical edge artificial intelligence (AI) applications in fields such as robotics, medical devices, and industrial systems. This partnership combines BlackBerry's high-performance, safety-certified QNX real-time operating system (RTOS) with NVIDIA’s advanced AI computing hardware platform. The integration aims to develop secure and reliable AI solutions that meet stringent safety standards and address the growing demand for edge AI technologies.
Additionally, reports indicate that BlackBerry aims to achieve double-digit revenue growth by fiscal year 2027, driven by its QNX real-time operating system as the software expands into AI and robotics markets beyond its automotive roots. The company has stated that approximately 20% of QNX revenues originate outside the automotive sector. CEO John Giamatteo anticipates further growth as robots and AI-driven machines increasingly require real-time, safety-certified software.
Nektar Therapeutics shares surged over 18% following positive outcomes from trials of its alopecia areata treatment drug.
In news updates on April 20th, $Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR.US)$ Nektar Therapeutics announced the 52-week topline results from the 16-week extension phase of its REZOLVE-AA Phase 2b study on rezpegaldesleukin, an alopecia areata treatment. The data showed that in the 18 µg/kg and 24 µg/kg dose groups, 29% and 31% of patients, respectively, achieved new SALT scores ≤20 between weeks 36 and 52. Additionally, 94% of patients completed the extended treatment period with clinically meaningful hair regrowth.
Following the release of the extended treatment results of the alopecia areata study, Oppenheimer reiterated its 'Outperform' rating and $140.00 price target for Nektar Therapeutics stock, stating that the comprehensive SALT ≤20 response rate in the 24 µg/kg dose group at week 52 was approximately 28%, which aligns with its best-case expectations.
Google's Next-Generation TPU to Be Released: A Key Move in the AI Inference Era Against NVIDIA
The company plans to announce its next-generation custom AI chip, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), at the Google Cloud Next conference held this week in Las Vegas. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Amin Vahdat, who oversees AI computing infrastructure and chip R&D, declined to comment on plans for an inference chip that accelerates AI output but indicated that more information would likely be shared in the 'relatively near future.'
This signal emerges against the backdrop of a structural shift in global AI computing competition—from a focus on model training to one dominated by large-scale inference. As the adoption of AI applications and AI agents (AI Agents) surges, the benchmark for measuring computing power is transitioning from 'peak performance' to 'cost per token, latency, and energy efficiency.' This is precisely where the AI ASIC route, represented by TPUs, holds the greatest advantage.
Amazon Invests Additional $5 Billion in Anthropic, Secures $100 Billion Cloud Computing Order
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Amazon announced a milestone agreement with artificial intelligence company Anthropic, immediately adding $5 billion in investment, with plans to invest up to an additional $200 billion upon reaching commercial milestones. Amazon had previously invested $8 billion in Anthropic, the creator of the Claude large language model. In exchange, Anthropic committed to purchasing over $100 billion worth of computing resources from AWS over the next decade and deploying Amazon’s proprietary Trainium AI chips on a large scale.
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Hong Kong Market Outlook
On April 20 (Monday), southbound capital recorded a net sell of HKD 3.909 billion in Hong Kong stocks today.
$CCB (00939.HK)$、$POP MART (09992.HK)$、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$They were respectively purchased with a net inflow of HKD 573 million, HKD 409 million, and HKD 355 million.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$、$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$They were respectively sold with a net outflow of HKD 3.478 billion, HKD 1.111 billion, and HKD 77.63 million.
China Mobile Reports Slight Q1 Revenue Growth Amid Declining Net Profit; Cloud Computing and Computing Power Leasing Become New Growth Drivers
China Mobile's revenue in the first quarter reached RMB 266.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with a relatively moderate growth rate. Revenue from its core telecommunications business declined by 1.1% year-on-year. Net profit narrowed by 4.2% year-on-year to RMB 29.3 billion, reflecting continued pressure on profitability. The main driver of overall revenue growth came from "other business income," which surged 12.7% year-on-year to RMB 46.6 billion, underscoring that emerging businesses such as computing power and intelligent services are becoming significant contributors to revenue.
Today's Focus
Keywords: Kevin Warsh nomination hearing, Shenghong Technology official listing, UnitedHealth and Zijin Mining to release financial reports
In terms of financial events, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing at 22:30 on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair.
In terms of economic data, the U.S. monthly retail sales growth rate for March will be announced at 20:30.
In terms of new stocks, $VGT (02476.HK)$ will officially go public.
In terms of earnings, U.S. stocks $3M (MMM.US)$ 、 $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ 、 $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ will release earnings before the market opens on the 21st, while Hong Kong stocks $CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$ 、 $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ 、 $FUYAO GLASS (03606.HK)$ will release earnings on the 21st.
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