According to reports, U.S. Vice President Vance will depart for Pakistan at 9:00 AM EST on the 21st to engage in a new round of ceasefire negotiations with Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader approved the dispatch of a negotiation delegation late on the 20th, after the White House had spent the entire day awaiting a signal from Tehran. Trump's envoy and son-in-law are also expected to participate in the talks. By the time Vance arrives in Pakistan, the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran will be nearing expiration.
The upcoming expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has made whether negotiations can continue a focal point for the market.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency citing Axios on April 20, U.S. Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, at 9:00 AM EST on April 21 (9:00 PM Beijing time on April 21) to engage in a new round of ceasefire talks with Iran. Three U.S. sources also revealed that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner will join the trip to participate in the negotiations.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiation delegation late on April 20. Informed sources stated that the White House spent the entire day on April 20 waiting for Tehran to signal its willingness to send a negotiation team to Islamabad. The three mediating countries—Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey—subsequently urged Iran to participate in the talks. “The Iranian negotiation team was awaiting approval from the Supreme Leader, which was granted late on April 20.”
According to the latest media reports, informed sources indicated that Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Pakistan on Tuesday to engage in a second round of peace talks with the United States.
Vance's trip comes after the breakdown of the first round of negotiations about a week ago. According to media reports, Vance engaged in a marathon 21-hour negotiation session in Pakistan over the weekend but ultimately failed to reach an agreement, leaving after declaring that the U.S. had presented its “final and best offer.”
Iran’s Hesitation
As of the previous day, Tehran had not publicly confirmed whether it would send representatives to the talks in Islamabad. Esmaeil Baqaei, a representative of Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated on Monday, April 20, that there were no plans for a second round of negotiations in the Pakistani capital. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier noted that Tehran harbors deep and historical distrust toward the U.S. government; he also emphasized that the Iranian people will not yield to pressure.
Iran’s hesitation is not coincidental. According to media citing informed sources, Iranian negotiators delayed under apparent pressure from the Revolutionary Guard, which insisted on a hardline stance of “no lifting of U.S. sanctions, no negotiations.”
Negotiators finally received the green light from the Supreme Leader and confirmed their attendance late on April 20.
Meanwhile, Islamabad has entered a state of heightened security. At present, Pakistani authorities have declared a security lockdown in the capital and will deploy an additional 10,000 security personnel, signaling that the negotiations are highly likely to proceed as scheduled.
Countdown to Ceasefire: Trump Threatens Escalation
The timeframe for this negotiation is extremely narrow. Reports indicate that when Vance arrived in Pakistan, the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was nearing expiration.
Trump issued a stern warning on social media on the 20th: 'We have offered a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they accept it. Because if they don’t, the US will destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran. Don’t expect me to be nice anymore!'
However, reports suggest that Trump has quietly extended the negotiation period by one day—the ceasefire was originally set to expire on Tuesday, but he stated on Monday that the deadline would be Wednesday evening. The report also noted, 'While reaching a comprehensive agreement within such a tight timeframe is highly challenging, Trump may agree to extend the ceasefire if there are signs of progress.'
Core Disputes: Uranium Enrichment and Strait Blockade
The central conflicts at the negotiating table remain unresolved. According to reports, on the issue of uranium enrichment, the US demands that Iran halt its enrichment activities for 20 years, while Iran is only willing to accept a five-year pause, creating a significant gap between the two sides.
The situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz is equally thorny. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through this strait. Iran has blockaded the waterway, prompting the US to retaliate by blockading Iranian ports. Last Saturday, Iran attacked two Indian vessels attempting to pass through, an act which Trump characterized as a 'serious violation of the ceasefire agreement.'
For Iran, the economic incentives for reaching an agreement are equally compelling. A deal could potentially unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets held by the US or at least lead to a partial lifting of sanctions.
Vance’s Political Gamble
This negotiation represents a high-stakes gamble for Vance personally.
Both allies and adversaries of the United States believe that if he fails to make any progress this time, it will be another significant setback for the political figure intending to succeed Trump under global scrutiny.
Analysts pointed out that this war is 'increasingly losing its appeal to American voters while continuing to weigh on the global economy and highly complex energy supply chains.'
Vance had previously privately told Trump that initiating this war might be seen as a betrayal by loyal voters, but he still defended it in public.
Editor/Lee