① U.S. President Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire period between the United States and Iran, but did not set a final deadline; ② Barclays warned the market against excessive optimism, as no real peace agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran. The disruption of oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the market has yet to fully recognize the actual impact of the ongoing supply disruptions.
Cailian Press News on April 23 (Editor Liu Rui) On Tuesday afternoon Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire period with Iran on social media. On Wednesday Eastern Time, White House Press Secretary Leavitt further stated that Trump had not set a final deadline regarding the extension of the ceasefire period with Iran.
Although this news temporarily eased market concerns over the rekindling of conflict in the Middle East, Barclays warned that the market should not be overly optimistic about this development, as the U.S. and Iran are still far from reaching a genuine peace agreement, and the extension of the ceasefire has not led to any substantial recovery in oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Barclays emphasized that the ongoing disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz continues to harm global energy markets, and stock and futures market movements have not fully reflected this shock. The pricing for the scale of supply disruptions remains significantly underestimated.
Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth noted in her report that the disruption of oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has now lasted more than 50 days, with over 600 million barrels of oil transportation blocked and more than 10 million barrels of daily oil supply interrupted.
Barclays pointed out that the current blockade of Iranian ports by the U.S. has tightened physical energy market supplies even further, and “almost no vessels are allowed to pass through on the Iranian side.”
Barclays added that an estimated 20,000 seafarers remain stranded on ships in the Persian Gulf, where these vessels continue to face security threats. According to authoritative reports, the UK Maritime Trade Operations office issued a notice on its website on the 22nd, stating that a container ship was attacked approximately 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman. The captain reported that an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps patrol boat approached and fired at the vessel, causing significant damage.
Barclays analysts believe that the market has yet to fully grasp the real impact of the ongoing supply disruptions.
The bank believes that the current prices of U.S. oil stocks indicate that the market seems to have priced long-term oil prices at $60 to $65 per barrel, an expectation that is clearly too optimistic. They recommend investors “take advantage of recent weakness to build positions” and anticipate that oil prices will rise in the coming months.
Editor/Rocky