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Futu Morning Brief | Trump states ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will be extended by three weeks, US-Iran negotiations “deadlocked”; Intel’s earnings exceed expectations, surging nearly 20% in after-hours trading; Yao Shunyu submits first report, Te

Futu News ·  Apr 24 08:22

Top News

  • Trump claims the Strait of Hormuz has been 'completely blockaded' until Iran agrees to negotiate.

Trump orders sinking of any vessel laying mines in the strait; Iran reportedly activates Tehran air defense system to intercept 'hostile targets,' later denying airstrikes.

Following reports that the Iranian parliament speaker resigned from the negotiation team, U.S. stock indices extended losses, with the Nasdaq falling over 1%. Crude oil prices surged over 5% after news from Tehran, which later clarified that the activation of air defenses was aimed at countering small drones.

According to Iranian media, Iran is developing countermeasures against potential military actions by the U.S. and its allies. A Pakistani diplomat stated that U.S.-Iran talks have 'reached a deadlock.'

The Israeli defense minister warns Iran: 'Prepared to resume hostilities, awaiting the U.S. to give the green light.'

Iran's foreign ministry states that negotiations have shifted focus from nuclear issues to achieving a complete ceasefire. Iran's leadership collectively denies internal divisions, with the supreme leader asserting that public unity has caused division among adversaries.

Iranian media reports that four Iranian oil tankers broke through the U.S. blockade in the past two days.

Iran’s judicial director states that the Iranian fleet stands ready in the Strait of Hormuz. The Central Bank of Iran confirms the first payment for passage through the strait was received in 'cash forex.'

  • Senate rejects bill limiting Trump’s war powers for the fifth time, with 51 votes against.

Democrats vow to continue pushing for weekly votes until Republicans come to their senses.

Senate Minority Leader Schumer stated, "The longer Trump delays freeing the U.S. from this war, the deeper the quagmire becomes, and the harder it will be for him to extricate himself."

  • Trump announces a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be extended for three weeks. (CCTV News)

  • The preliminary reading of the U.S. manufacturing PMI in April hit a nearly four-year high, with stockpiling driving growth but failing to mask weak demand, while inflation rebounded, leaving the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.

The preliminary composite PMI for the U.S. in April rose to 52, marking a three-month high, reflecting moderate economic growth. The manufacturing PMI reached 54, partly driven by tariff-induced precautionary stockpiling rather than real demand. The services PMI rose to 51.3 but remained low, indicating sluggish demand. Price increases for goods and services hit their highest level since July 2022, intensifying inflationary pressures.

Economist Williamson warned that against the backdrop of sluggish growth and rising inflation, the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has significantly increased.

  • Surpassing Claude, OpenAI releases its most powerful model, GPT-5.5, targeting the enterprise-level paid market.

GPT-5.5 outperformed Claude and Gemini across tests in programming, scientific research, and knowledge work, achieving higher intelligence with inference latency comparable to its predecessor. Engineers testing the model remarked, "It feels like collaborating with a higher form of intelligent being." GPT-5.5 was made available to paying users of ChatGPT and the coding tool Codex on Thursday.

  • The end of SaaS? After surveying 40 companies, Goldman Sachs exclaims: This could be a much bigger growth narrative.

Goldman Sachs believes that software companies are transitioning their business models from selling functionalities and seats to offering "units of labor or productivity." This implies they will be able to tap into the labor budget market, which is significantly larger than traditional software budgets, thereby substantially expanding the total addressable market (TAM). Meanwhile, value is being redistributed from cutting-edge large model labs to the software application layer and runtime layer. This structural shift provides positive support for the long-term valuation logic of SaaS stocks.

  • The Federal Reserve pressures Wall Street to support new capital regulations, while large banks continue seeking additional exemptions.

The U.S. banking sector's capital regulatory reform has entered a critical phase. Despite clear signals from senior Fed officials urging Wall Street to back the new rules and reduce public resistance, large banks persist in pushing for further relaxation of capital requirements.

According to informed sources, Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve, Bowman, met with chief executives of major banks, including $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$and$Goldman Sachs(GS.US)$ , in Washington in early April and urged the industry to consider the impact of the new capital proposal from a holistic perspective rather than continuing to seek additional exemptions. The relevant proposal is widely regarded as favorable to the banking industry and will generally reduce the industry's capital requirements.

Informed sources stated that some bank executives felt from the talks that the Federal Reserve hopes the industry will focus more on 'constructive feedback' in the comment period ending mid-June, rather than engaging in intense lobbying as before, since these capital proposals are not expected to undergo significant changes.

  • PwC has agreed to pay HKD 1 billion in compensation to shareholders of Evergrande over false financial reports, while also facing a fine of HKD 300 million and a six-month suspension of operations.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission reached an agreement with PwC, under which PwC will compensate eligible independent minority shareholders of Evergrande with HKD 1 billion for its false financial statements in 2019 and 2020, marking a historic precedent. The Hong Kong Financial Reporting Council fined PwC HKD 300 million and imposed a six-month practice restriction, while fining two former partners HKD 5 million each.

  • Surpassing OpenAI, Anthropic's secondary market valuation soars to USD 1 trillion.

Anthropic's valuation in the private secondary market has exceeded USD 1 trillion, surpassing OpenAI’s valuation of USD 880 billion. Driven by surging revenue and the popularity of Claude Code, the market experienced extreme supply-demand imbalances, with sellers demanding prices as high as USD 1.15 trillion. Shares of Anthropic have become a status symbol, reflecting intense emotional dynamics in the AI sector.

U.S. stock market recap

As tensions between the US and Iran escalated again, the three major US stock indices retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from record highs; software stocks led declines, with ServiceNow plunging nearly 18% amid large order impacts from Middle East conflicts, dragging down software shares. Salesforce fell nearly 9%, leading declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Microsoft dropped nearly 4%. Tesla, which raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance, slid more than 3%. IBM, which reported slowing Q1 revenue, fell more than 8%. The semiconductor index gained nearly 2%, extending its winning streak to 17 days and setting a new record. Texas Instruments surged 19% on strong quarterly results and guidance, and Intel jumped over 20% after hours following better-than-expected Q1 revenue and Q2 guidance. Nokia’s European shares rose over 6% on higher-than-expected Q1 profits.

Iran reportedly activated its capital air defense system to intercept 'hostile' targets, causing US Treasury yields to spike to a one-week high during trading; the US Dollar Index accelerated its rise, hitting a near-two-week peak, while offshore Renminbi approached 6.84, reaching a more-than-one-week low; Bitcoin neared USD 77,000 before dropping more than 2% from its daily high.

In commodities, crude oil rallied mid-session following the above Iran-related news, refreshing its daily high with gains exceeding 5% and closing up over 3%, with Brent crude settling at a more-than-two-week high. Gold hit a fresh daily low, falling more than 1%.

Among popular technology stocks, as of yesterday’s close, Intel rose 2.31%, Tesla fell 3.56%, and Microsoft declined 3.97%.

Chinese concept stocks experienced a broad decline. By the close, XPeng Group fell 6.31%, Alibaba dropped 3.46%, and Nio declined 3.09%.

$Semiconductors (LIST2015.US)$ The sector continued its strong performance, rising for the 17th consecutive trading day to set a historical record. $Intel (INTC.US)$ The post-market surge of approximately 20% became the focal point. $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ Post-market gains exceeded 19%.

Individual stock information

  • Concerns over AI's impact on software business models resurfaced as Salesforce plummeted nearly 9%.

Analysts pointed out that although $Salesforce(CRM.US)$ it is expected to achieve one of the fastest revenue growth rates in recent years, this may not be sufficient to fully alleviate market concerns. Investors are generally worried that as AI tools continue to evolve, traditional software companies' core business models could face disruption. Risks include diminished value of subscription models, pressured profit margins, and increased competition. These issues not only affect Salesforce but also prompt the market to reassess the sustainability of growth across the entire software industry.

  • AI drives Intel’s Q2 guidance above expectations; shares surged over 20% post-market as investors bet on growing CPU demand.

$Intel (INTC.US)$ The first-quarter earnings report and second-quarter guidance both exceeded expectations significantly. First-quarter revenue grew by 7% year-over-year to $13.6 billion, surpassing the forecast of $12.4 billion. The second-quarter revenue guidance ranges from $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, with a midpoint of $14.3 billion, compared to expectations of $13 billion. Data center group revenue reached $5.1 billion in the first quarter, surging 22% above forecasts. The CEO highlighted substantial customer demand and emphasized a focus on expanding production capacity.

  • Nokia’s impressive turnaround: AI cloud business booms, Q1 operating profit soars 54%, stock price hits a 16-year high.

Nokia (NOK.US)Comparable operating profit surged to €2.81 billion in the first quarter, primarily driven by explosive demand for AI and cloud services. Related orders exceeded €10 billion in a single quarter, with sales increasing by 49%. The company has also raised its full-year and medium-term growth forecasts, expecting the AI and cloud markets to grow at an average annual rate of 27%, further accelerating the expansion of network infrastructure business. Driven by the wave of investment in AI data centers, Nokia is transitioning from a traditional telecom equipment provider to a key network infrastructure provider.

  • Warner Bros Discovery shareholders approve merger deal with Paramount Global, still facing antitrust reviews in the U.S. and EU.

$Warner Bros Discovery(WBD.US)$Shareholders approved on Thursday in conjunction with$Paramount Skydance(PSKY.US)$the merger transaction, despite widespread opposition within the Hollywood industry and ongoing antitrust reviews in multiple jurisdictions, including the United States and the European Union.

In February this year, Paramount agreed to acquire Warner Bros Discovery for $110 billion, outbidding competitors after months of bidding. Upon completion of the transaction, Warner Bros Discovery shareholders will receive cash consideration of $31 per share.Netflix (NFLX.US)Upon completion of the transaction, Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will receive cash consideration of US$31 per share.

The agreement also includes a 'deferred compensation clause,' under which shareholders will receive an additional $0.25 per share for each subsequent quarter if the deal is not completed by September 30, until the transaction is finalized.

A Paramount spokesperson expressed the company’s anticipation of completing the transaction in the coming months, aiming to create a 'next-generation media and entertainment company that better serves the creative community and consumers.'

Notably, shareholders also rejected the compensation package for David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery.

  • Following a sharp decline in its stock price due to weak performance, Netflix announced a $25 billion buyback plan to reassure investors.

Following a disappointing financial outlook that led to a sharp decline in the stock price,Netflix (NFLX.US)Plans to increase its stock repurchase program by $25 billion following a disappointing financial outlook that led to a significant drop in its share price.

In a regulatory filing submitted on Thursday, Netflix stated that its board of directors had approved the repurchase plan. The newly added repurchase amount will be added to the repurchase authorization approved in December 2024, which currently has $6.8 billion remaining available. This new repurchase program does not have an expiration date. In March this year, Netflix spent approximately $1.3 billion to repurchase 13.5 million shares of its own stock.

Top 20 by trading value

Hong Kong Market Outlook

On Thursday, April 23, southbound capital net purchased HKD 8.598 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks today.

$Tracker Fund (02800.HK)$Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033.HK)$Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828.HK)$Net purchases amounted to HKD 3.662 billion, HKD 850 million, and HKD 823 million, respectively.

$Geely Auto (00175.HK)$$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$SMIC (00981.HK)Net sales reached HKD 651 million, HKD 596 million, and HKD 503 million, respectively.

  • Yao Shunyu delivers his first report! Tencent HunYuan 3 Preview large model released

Tencent HunYuan released and open-sourced the Hy3 preview model, featuring a total of 295 billion parameters with 21 billion activated, emphasizing high cost-effectiveness and practicality. The model focuses on enhancing Agent and Coding capabilities, demonstrating strong performance in evaluations such as SWE-Bench and Terminal-Bench for code and search agents, and showing competitiveness in tasks like ClawEval.

Today's Focus

Keywords: Procter & Gamble, Luoyang Molybdenum, Goldwind Technologies earnings reports

In terms of economic data, the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April in the U.S. will be released at 22:00.

In terms of earnings, U.S. stocks $Procter & Gamble(PG.US)$ will release their earnings before the market opens on the 24th, and Hong Kong stocks Goldwind Technology (02208.HK)$Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK)$CITIC Securities (06030.HK)$Chifeng Gold (06693.HK)$ will also release its earnings.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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