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Futu Morning Brief | Negotiation Path Emerges! Iran Proposes a 'Three-Phase Solution'; DeepSeek Reduces Input Cache Pricing, Goldman Sachs Predicts Further Strengthening of Cost Competitiveness; ZTE Q1 Net Profit Drops 46% Year-on-Year, Montage Technology

Futu News ·  Apr 27 08:06

Top News

  • Iran has proposed a three-phase negotiation plan to resolve the issues.

Iranian sources have stated that Iran has conveyed a three-phase negotiation plan to the United States through intermediaries. The first phase of the negotiations will focus on completely ending the war and obtaining guarantees to prevent renewed hostilities against Iran and Lebanon. If an agreement is reached in the first phase, the parties will move to the second phase, which will be dedicated to studying how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. The third phase pertains to discussions on nuclear issues, but Iran will not participate in nuclear talks until agreements are reached in the first two phases.

On Saturday local time, Trump called off the envoy's trip to Pakistan for talks with Iran, stating that “if they want to talk, just make a phone call,” and claimed that Iran “has no cards.” According to foreign media reports on the 26th, during an interview with Fox News, U.S. President Trump said he believes the Iran war will end soon and the U.S. will emerge victorious. If Iran wants to negotiate, it can call the U.S., adding that “I hope Iran is smart enough.”

  • JPMorgan: While the Middle East issue remains unresolved, a path to negotiations is visible, and the macro focus has shifted from risk premiums to residual 'stagflation' risks.

Rajiv Batra from JPMorgan's Global Market Strategy team wrote in a Friday report: “The situation in the Middle East remains unresolved (if prolonged, it could pose nonlinear risks to commodity supplies), but the path toward a negotiated resolution is clearer… The macro focus has shifted from risk premium to residual 'stagflation.'” Under this framework, stock market divergence will intensify: beyond commodity stocks, capital is more inclined toward sectors less sensitive to economic conditions but capable of delivering sustained growth in structural areas, particularly AI and investments related to “security/resilience”; conversely, energy-sensitive and purely cyclical sectors will see reduced weighting. The strategy’s key takeaway is straightforward: increase exposure to Asia’s tech supply chain and Taiwan, while reducing exposure to markets like India, which are more constrained by the lingering effects of stagflation.

  • DeepSeek Input Cache Price Reduction

According to the official DeepSeek website, effective immediately, the price for input cache hits across all DeepSeek model series has been reduced to one-tenth of the initial price. The deepseek-v4-pro model is available at a limited-time discount of 25% off, with the promotional period ending at 23:59 Beijing Time on May 5, 2026. Following this price reduction combined with the limited-time offer, the cost for input (cache hit) for the DeepSeek-V4-Pro model has been lowered to 0.025 yuan per million tokens.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believes that DeepSeek V4, through architectural innovations such as mixed attention mechanisms, significantly compresses the cost of long-context inference, with its core significance lying in supporting the implementation of complex intelligent applications at a lower cost. V4 explicitly bets on Huawei Ascend 950, with expectations that API pricing will notably decline after mass production begins in the second half of 2026. Competition among domestic AI models is intensifying, with programming capabilities and multimodality becoming critical differentiators. Goldman Sachs maintains its top pick rating for cloud computing and data centers.

  • U.S. Department of Justice halts investigation into the Federal Reserve, potentially paving the way for Wash’s nomination to be approved by the Senate.

Jennina Piros, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, stated on the 24th that given the Federal Reserve’s anticipated internal investigation into the cost overruns of its building renovation project, she has instructed the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia to conclude its investigation into the Fed’s building renovation. According to media analysis, the DOJ’s decision to end the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chair Powell clears the path for Kevin Wash, Trump’s nominee for the next Fed chair, to gain Senate approval. Piros posted on social media that the Fed’s Inspector General was asked to review the billions of dollars in construction cost overruns borne by taxpayers. She expressed confidence that the findings would help “resolve the issue” and added that she would not hesitate to reopen the criminal investigation if circumstances required.

  • The U.S. Space Force disclosed details of the 'Golden Dome' contract: SpaceX, Anduril, and 10 other companies awarded $3.2 billion in orders.

The U.S. Space Force announced that it has awarded contracts worth up to $3.2 billion to 12 companies for developing space-based missile defense interception systems, advancing President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” program. By the end of 2025 to early 2026, the Space Systems Command under the Space Force has awarded 20 contracts to 12 companies, including SpaceX, Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)$Lockheed Martin(LMT.US)$ and Anduril Industries, with a total value of up to $3.2 billion. The project aims to develop a space-based missile defense interception system by 2028 and demonstrate its integrated operational capabilities within the overall “Golden Dome” architecture.

  • This Thursday! Tech giants release earnings reports on the same day, as booming AI faces a “moment of validation.”

The Big Four tech giants — Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon — are set to release their earnings reports in the early hours of April 30 Beijing time. Their combined capital expenditure is approaching $600 billion, with continued inflows into AI infrastructure. However, market patience is waning: this earnings season, investors are no longer seeking promises of 'continued spending,' but rather concrete evidence of accelerated cloud revenue, secured orders, and controlled profit margins. Those who can deliver on all fronts will solidify their positions.

U.S. stock market recap

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, with NVIDIA surpassing $5 trillion in market capitalization.

Last Friday Eastern Time, the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.63%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.80%.

$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$ The majority rose, with NVIDIA climbing 4.32%, bringing its market cap back above $5 trillion. Amazon rose 3.49%, Microsoft added 2.13%, Meta gained 2.41%, Google increased by 1.63%, while Apple slipped 0.87%.

The Livermore China Concept Stocks Leaders Index closed up 2.62%. $Popular Chinese Stocks Listed in the U.S. (LIST24021.US)$ Gains were broad-based, with Baidu rising over 5%, XPeng Group and GDS Holdings climbing more than 4%, and Miniso and Alibaba gaining over 3%.

Individual stock information

  • For the first time since last October, NVIDIA surged to a new high.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ On Friday, it soared over 4%, setting a new all-time closing record, with its market value firmly above the $5 trillion mark, bringing its year-to-date gain to 12%. Analysts believe key variables this week will be the earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. Their AI capital expenditure trends are expected to directly impact the mid-term performance of NVIDIA and the semiconductor sector.

  • Google is reportedly planning to invest up to $40 billion to deepen its partnership with Anthropic.

The latest information shows that Google-A (GOOGL.US) Google will invest $10 billion in Anthropic, with the potential for an additional $30 billion later, further strengthening the relationship between the two companies. Reports indicate that Anthropic stated Google is committing $10 billion in cash at a valuation of $350 billion, consistent with its valuation during its February funding round this year. Anthropic also mentioned that if future performance targets are met, Google will invest an additional $30 billion and support Anthropic in significantly expanding its computing power. Following the breakthrough success of its AI programming agent Claude Code, Anthropic is accelerating its fundraising efforts. This tool can substantially improve software development efficiency.

  • Semiconductors are the most overbought in history. 'Big Short' Burry warns: driven by technical factors—it’s time to exit.

"The Big Short" Michael Burry announced a short position in the semiconductor sector, stating that the current rally lacks fundamental support. In a Substack post last Friday, Burry wrote: If he held long positions in semiconductor stocks, he would choose to sell now. He also noted that the continued rise of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is "more driven by technical factors" rather than sustainable fundamental logic. Burry's comments on Friday coincided with the index's 18 consecutive trading days of gains, marking the longest streak in history. From a technical perspective, the overbought condition of the semiconductor index has also reached its highest level ever.

  • Gurman: Apple's new CEO, John Ternus, to take office on September 1st, with the foldable iPhone as his debut.

Technology reporter Mark Gurman recently wrote that,$Apple(AAPL.US)$Successor CEO John Ternus will officially assume office on September 1 and subsequently unveil Apple’s first foldable iPhone. This arrangement aims to establish Ternus as the spokesperson for this product line. The device focuses on durability and micro-fold technology and is expected to be priced above $2,000. In addition to smartphones, Tim Cook has left behind approximately 10 new product development pipelines, including AI smart home devices, AR glasses, and touchscreen Macs, to help Apple enter an unprecedented phase of product expansion during his tenure.

  • Eli Lilly and Co's oral weight-loss drug had a weaker-than-expected start, lagging behind Novo-Nordisk A/S.

Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US) The new weight-loss tablet Foundayo has underperformed in its market debut. The latest prescription data show that the product has gotten off to a relatively slow start, highlighting the challenges it faces in catching up with competitor Novo Nordisk. According to IQVIA data cited by RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh, Foundayo secured a total of 3,707 prescriptions in its second week on the market. By comparison,$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Prescription data for Eli Lilly and Co's new weight-loss tablet, Foundayo, showed a slower-than-expected start, highlighting the challenges it faces in catching up with competitor Novo-Nordisk A/S. According to IQVIA data cited by RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh, Foundayo garnered 3,707 prescriptions in its second week on the market. By comparison, Novo-Nordisk A/S's oral version of Wegovy achieved 18,410 prescriptions in its second week. Earlier this month, Eli Lilly and Co's once-daily pill was approved in the U.S. through an expedited review pathway designed to accelerate the availability of promising drugs. This approval also increased pressure on Novo-Nordisk A/S, which views its competitive weight-loss pill launched in January as a key pillar for business recovery.

  • Nuclear energy stocks continue to surge as Amazon-backed X-Energy soared 27% on its IPO debut.

Nuclear power service provider$X-Energy(XE.US)$X-Energy, a nuclear energy service provider, surged 27% on its Nasdaq debut on Friday, closing at $29.20 per share with a market capitalization of $11.5 billion. Benefiting from the explosive growth in AI-driven electricity demand, its IPO was priced higher than expected, raising over $1 billion. Amazon, as a major shareholder and customer, has committed to a 5-gigawatt order. Despite projected losses in 2025 and commercialization still years away, early investors such as Ken Griffin and Ares have already seen several-fold paper profits.

Top 20 by trading value

Hong Kong Market Outlook

  • Southbound capital added nearly HKD 3.5 billion in Hong Kong stocks, purchasing over HKD 700 million worth of China National Offshore Oil Corporation shares while selling more than HKD 1.4 billion worth of Tracker Fund shares.

On Friday, April 24, southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 3.46 billion in Hong Kong stocks today.

CNOOC Limited (00883.HK)$China Mobile(00941.HK)$Changfei Fiber Optic Cables (Stock Code: 06869.HK)The respective net purchases amounted to HKD 712 million, HKD 546 million, and HKD 263 million.

$Tracker Fund (02800.HK)$$Geely Auto (00175.HK)$SMIC (00981.HK)The respective net sales reached HKD 1.432 billion, HKD 856 million, and HKD 471 million.

  • Goldwind: Q1 net profit increased by 60% year-on-year due to an increase in the scale of wind turbine and component sales.

Goldwind Technology (02208.HK) The company announced that it achieved operating revenue of RMB 15.485 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.48%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 907 million, a year-on-year increase of 59.65%. The change in performance was mainly due to an increase in the scale of the company's wind turbine and component sales, higher gross profit, increased investment income, and losses from changes in fair value.

  • ZTE Corporation: Q1 Net Profit Down 46.58% Year-on-Year

$ZTE Corporation (00763.HK)$ The company announced that it achieved operating revenue of RMB 34.988 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.13%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 46.58%. The change in performance was mainly due to foreign exchange losses resulting from currency fluctuations (compared to gains in the same period last year), reduced net interest income, a decline in other income related to daily operations, losses from the fair value reassessment of derivative contracts at the end of the period (compared to gains in the same period last year), as well as increased provisions for accounts receivable impairment and inventory write-downs.

  • Chifeng Gold: Q1 net profit increased by 104% year-on-year due to a significant year-on-year increase in gold prices.

$Chifeng Gold (06693.HK)$ The company announced that it achieved operating revenue of RMB 3.554 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.65%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 988 million, a year-on-year increase of 104.43%. The change in performance was mainly attributed to the continuous optimization of production organization and operational management, as well as substantial benefits from a significant year-on-year increase in gold prices.

Today's Focus

Keywords: Wuxi Apptec, Domino's Pizza earnings report,曦智科技-P, 迈威生物-B dark trading

In terms of new stocks, Xizhi Technology-P (01879.HK)Maiwei Bio-B (02493.HK) Grey market.

Earnings-wise,Wuxi Apptec (603259.SH)Montage Technology (06809.HK)$Haitian (03288.HK)$$Haier Smart Home (06690.HK)$ $COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (01138.HK)$Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK)$Cambridge Technology (06166.HK)$Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US) will release its earnings report.

Futubull AI Morning Reading:

Speculation is not entirely wrong, but never mistake speculation for investment.

——Benjamin Graham

WebPLooking to pick stocks or diagnose stock performance? Want to know the opportunities and risks in your portfolio? For all investment-related questions,just ask Futubull AI!

Editor/KOKO

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