The ongoing escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has turned the submarine cables traversing the Strait of Hormuz into a potential risk point. This strait carries multiple global internet backbone cables and serves as a critical digital channel for the financial, e-commerce, and AI infrastructure of Gulf countries. Analysts have pointed out that the risk of accidental damage during wartime is increasing, with repairs facing obstacles such as insurance and territorial waters permits. Satellite systems are unlikely to serve as substitutes. The digital economy strategies of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which heavily rely on submarine cables, are now facing serious challenges.
Amid the shadow of Middle Eastern conflict, a rarely noticed risk thread is emerging—undersea fiber optic cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
According to media reports, Iran publicly warned last week that undersea cables in the strait represent a fragile node for the regional digital economy, prompting heightened market concern over the security of critical infrastructure. To date, Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and the UAE have been affected by the war, but undersea cables have not yet suffered direct attacks.
Analysts point out that even excluding deliberate sabotage, the risk of accidental damage during wartime due to activities such as ship anchors dragging cannot be underestimated. Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin stated: 'Under active military operations, the likelihood of accidental damage increases, and the longer the conflict persists, the higher this risk becomes.' Should these cables be damaged, internet connectivity, financial transactions, and e-commerce operations in Gulf countries would face direct impacts, while existing satellite systems are still unable to provide effective alternative capacity.
Not just an oil chokepoint, but a global digital lifeline
Multiple undersea fiber optic cables run through the seabed of the Strait of Hormuz, forming a crucial digital corridor connecting India, Southeast Asia, and Europe via Gulf nations and Egypt. According to data from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), undersea cables carry approximately 99% of global internet traffic—these cables traversing the strait are a key component of this global network.
Major cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz include: the Asia-Africa-Europe-1 (AAE-1) system, which connects Southeast Asia and Europe with landing points in the UAE, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia; the FALCON network, linking India, Sri Lanka, Gulf countries, Sudan, and Egypt; and the Gulf Bridge International cable system, covering all Gulf states. Additionally, a new undersea cable system led by Qatar’s telecommunications operator Ooredoo is currently under construction.
At present, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing billions of dollars into developing artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to drive economic diversification. Both countries have established national AI companies targeting regional markets, heavily reliant on undersea cable networks for data transmission.
Wartime conditions amplify the risk of accidental damage
Experts note that the threats to undersea cables extend far beyond deliberate attacks. According to data from the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC), between 2014 and 2025, despite significant growth in the total length of undersea cables, annual fault incidents remained stable at around 150 to 200 cases, with 70% to 80% caused by human-related accidental activities such as fishing and ship anchors, while deliberate sabotage remains only one of the risks.
The wartime environment significantly amplifies the probability of accidental damage. Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin cited a 2024 case where a merchant ship attacked by Iran’s Houthi forces drifted in the Red Sea, its anchor dragging and severing an undersea cable—a precedent with direct relevance under the current conflict backdrop.
Alan Mauldin, Research Director at TeleGeography, a telecommunications research institute, stated that the industry typically mitigates risks by burying cables, installing armor protection, and optimizing routing. However, natural factors such as underwater currents, earthquakes, submarine volcanoes, and typhoons still pose significant threats.
Both repair and alternative solutions face numerous obstacles.
Even if the cable is damaged, repair work in conflict zones encounters multiple barriers. Alan Mauldin, Research Director at TeleGeography, noted that while physical repair itself is not complex, shipowners of repair vessels and their insurers may hesitate due to combat risks or the presence of naval mines.
Approval for entering relevant territorial waters constitutes another major bottleneck. Mauldin pointed out that obtaining permission to access areas where cables are damaged often takes a long time, making it one of the primary obstacles in repair operations. After the conflict ends, the industry must re-survey the seabed to identify safe cable-laying locations and avoid hazards such as sunken ships or other obstructions from the war.
If an undersea cable is damaged, terrestrial links can provide a certain level of backup connectivity. However, experts unanimously agree that satellite systems cannot serve as a viable alternative. Mauldin emphasized that switching to satellites is not feasible because they rely on terrestrial networks and are better suited for mobile scenarios like aircraft and ships. Masha Kotkin, a geopolitical and energy analyst, further added that low-Earth-orbit networks, represented by Starlink, "are a boutique solution that currently cannot scale to accommodate millions of users."
Kotkin provided a straightforward description of the potential losses: "Cable damage means reduced or interrupted internet speeds, disrupted e-commerce, delayed financial transactions, and the resulting chain of economic losses."
Editor/Deng