OpenAI's failure to meet its 2025 revenue and user targets has reignited market skepticism over the return on investment in AI, pressuring a group of 'OpenAI-related stocks.' SoftBank Group plunged nearly 10% in a single day, while CoreWeave, Oracle, and Advanced Micro Devices also weakened. This incident highlights the dilemma in AI capital expenditures: slowing down would be bearish, while accelerating raises concerns about returns. Coupled with intensifying competition and uncertainties surrounding IPOs, the narrative of high AI investments is now facing real-world scrutiny.
A report about OpenAI's failure to meet internal targets reignited market concerns over the return on AI investments just before earnings season, putting pressure on a group of tech stocks closely tied to the ChatGPT developer.
An earlier article from Wall Street Wisdom noted that OpenAI failed to achieve its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT and also missed the goal of reaching 1 billion weekly active users by the end of 2025.
Following the news, shares of SoftBank Group once fell by 11% during Tokyo trading hours and ultimately closed down 9.9%, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly six months. $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ In pre-market trading on U.S. equities, these stocks fell between approximately 3% to 5%. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock was down about 1% in pre-market trading.
CoreWeave subsequently issued a statement saying:
OpenAI is not our only partner; our business is supported by a diversified customer base.
Demand in the artificial intelligence sector continues to outstrip supply, and we still believe that demand exceeds supply across the entire ecosystem.
This selloff reflects deep market anxiety about the prospects of AI infrastructure spending. Investors are closely watching whether tech companies can deliver on their previously announced large-scale capital expenditure plans, and OpenAI’s missed targets have once again called the sustainability of this narrative into question.
Amanda Lyons, Director of Research at Energy Group Capital, stated, "The market needs to see this to sustain the current AI narrative. The key point is that it is a very narrow path: any signs of slowing spending will be seen as negative for the entire ecosystem, but if spending surges significantly, it may raise questions about returns and sustainability."
SoftBank bears the brunt, with its equity structure amplifying risks.
In this downturn, SoftBank was hit the hardest. SoftBank holds approximately 11% of OpenAI's equity and has separate investments in AI data centers, making it the publicly traded company most directly associated with OpenAI's success or failure in the eyes of the market. According to a previous Bloomberg report, SoftBank is seeking a $10 billion loan collateralized by its stake in OpenAI.
Hedge fund Coatue has categorized SoftBank Group, NVIDIA, Oracle, AMD, Microsoft, and CoreWeave as so-called 'OpenAI Concept Stocks,' citing that these companies all have substantive business ties with OpenAI and are seen by investors as alternative channels for indirectly betting on the developer of ChatGPT. The chain reaction triggered by this report is a concentrated manifestation of this logic.
Intensifying competition brings internal pressures to the surface.
Behind OpenAI's unmet goals, the competitive landscape is undergoing changes. Google's Gemini has eroded OpenAI’s market share, while Anthropic continues to make progress in programming and enterprise markets.
Internally, OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has expressed concerns to several executives, stating that if revenue growth does not meet expectations, the company may struggle to fulfill large-scale data center procurement contracts. Meanwhile, the board has begun more rigorous scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman’s strategy of continuously locking in computing resources.
Doubts about the IPO timeline.
These pressures have also added uncertainty to OpenAI's listing plans. According to The Wall Street Journal, Sarah Friar has warned the board and senior management that the company is not yet ready to meet the stringent disclosure requirements for going public, raising further doubts about its IPO timeline within the year.
Christophe Barraud, Head of Discretionary Management and Research at Lior Global Partners, stated, "As OpenAI gradually moves towards a potential IPO, the company currently faces叠加多重风险：内部目标落空、全球竞争加剧，以及一场可能从根本上重塑其架构的高风险诉讼。" — referring to the ongoing litigation between Elon Musk and OpenAI being heard in San Francisco.
Microsoft, as OpenAI’s largest shareholder, saw little movement in its stock during pre-market trading. However, Microsoft announced earlier this week that it would partially scale back its collaboration with OpenAI.
Editor/Jayden