Kremlin spokesperson Peskov told local media that Russia is not considering the possibility of withdrawing from its cooperation with OPEC and hopes that the United Arab Emirates' exit from the organization does not signify the broader dissolution of the OPEC+ alliance.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, following questions about the future of the alliance after the UAE surprisingly announced its withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ mechanisms, which triggered a Middle Eastern war leading to a historic oil supply disruption, Russia stated it has no intention of leaving OPEC+.
Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov told local media that Russia is not considering the possibility of exiting its cooperative relationship with OPEC and hopes that the UAE's withdrawal does not signify the end of the broader OPEC+ coalition. Media cited Peskov as saying, 'This is a very important area of cooperation, especially crucial under the current circumstances – frankly speaking, energy markets are in turmoil.' He added that the OPEC+ mechanism helps significantly reduce volatility in energy markets and stabilize them.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are the de facto co-leaders of OPEC+. A person close to the Russian government stated that Russia has no incentive to leave the OPEC+ alliance because it sees no options for significantly increasing oil production in the short term.
As Ukraine intensifies its attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure – from refineries to maritime terminals – Russia’s ability to increase oil production remains constrained. In March this year, Russia's crude oil production was almost flat after three consecutive months of decline, at 9.167 million barrels per day (bpd) (this data excludes condensate production), which is 407,000 bpd lower than the level Russia was permitted to produce in March under its agreement with OPEC and its allies.
The Kremlin's statement echoed Kazakhstan's announcement on Wednesday. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy stated that the issue of changing Kazakhstan's form of participation in the OPEC+ alliance is not on the agenda. Multiple representatives of the OPEC coalition said on Tuesday that they neither plan to follow the UAE's exit nor believe that the UAE’s departure will trigger a broader wave of exits.
UAE's Exit from OPEC: Global Energy Market May Enter an Era of 'Decentralized Competition'
As OPEC's third-largest oil producer, the UAE unexpectedly announced on April 28 that it would withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ mechanism starting May 1, ending a 59-year membership history. The UAE stated that this decision reflects the country's long-term strategy and economic vision, as well as the evolving energy landscape, and that it will gradually increase production in the future.
UAE Energy Minister Suheil Al-Mazrouei said in an interview that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time mainly due to factors such as the current restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz and believes that this decision will have a limited impact on the global oil market.
Following the UAE's announcement of its withdrawal from OPEC, international oil prices briefly plummeted before quickly rebounding. This volatility precisely reflects market concerns about OPEC’s declining cohesion and anticipates uncertainties in the future supply landscape.
The UAE’s withdrawal this time was by no means a spur-of-the-moment decision but an inevitable result of accumulated contradictions between its long-term capacity demands and OPEC's collective decision-making mechanism. In recent years, the UAE has continuously advanced its energy capacity expansion plans, aiming to increase daily oil production to 5 million barrels by 2027, while OPEC’s production quota mechanism has consistently hindered its ability to release capacity. At numerous OPEC+ meetings, the UAE repeatedly sought to expand production quotas to match its capacity investments but frequently clashed with Saudi Arabia, which advocates production cuts to maintain prices. These conflicts have repeatedly pushed the UAE to the brink of withdrawal, and this time it has finally become a reality.
It is reported that prior to the Middle East conflict, the UAE's oil production accounted for 10% to 15% of OPEC’s total output. A former executive of Gazprom analyzed that the UAE aims to increase its production by 30%, but this cannot be achieved under the quota restrictions imposed by OPEC and OPEC+. Therefore, leaving OPEC would allow the UAE to increase production without being constrained by OPEC quotas.
Analysts have pointed out that against the backdrop of the 'chokepoint' in the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE hopes to free itself from OPEC’s quota constraints, release idle capacity, and take advantage of the fact that the Port of Fujairah is not affected by the 'chokepoint' in the Strait of Hormuz to flexibly adjust production. In fact, over the years, the UAE has been actively building pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to better address geopolitical risks.
For the UAE, this decisive move to exit will grant it full autonomy over energy production and trade, maximizing its economic growth potential. According to its official statement, after exiting, it will no longer be obligated to adhere to the organization’s production limits, enabling it to collaborate more flexibly with global partners and investors, focusing on unleashing the capacity of crude oil, petrochemical products, and natural gas, in line with its long-term economic vision. This move clears institutional barriers for capacity release after the Middle East military conflict.
In the long term, the UAE can independently formulate production policies, avoiding missed market opportunities due to OPEC’s collective decision-making, while also supporting its national oil company ADNOC in advancing a 550 billion dirham capital expenditure plan, driving the energy sector towards low-carbonization and diversification, balancing short-term gains with long-term sustainability. Additionally, free from OPEC constraints, the UAE is expected to further expand energy cooperation with non-OPEC countries, reducing reliance on a single cooperation system and enhancing its bargaining power in global energy trade.
Meanwhile, the UAE's withdrawal may significantly impact OPEC’s influence and the stable operation of the global energy market. As a core alliance of major oil-producing countries established in 1960, OPEC’s primary role is to stabilize international oil prices through collective production adjustments. The departure of the UAE as a key member directly undermines OPEC’s capacity to regulate production—especially now that Saudi Arabia is the only member state with substantial spare capacity, OPEC’s ability to smooth supply imbalances in the market has greatly diminished, potentially leading to increased volatility in international oil prices going forward.
More importantly, some analysts believe that the UAE’s withdrawal could mark “the beginning of the end for OPEC.” Energy industry analyst Saul Kavonic noted that with the UAE’s departure, OPEC will not only lose approximately 15% of its production capacity but also one of its most compliant member states. Other OPEC members may follow the UAE’s lead, signaling a fundamental reshaping of the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape and the global oil market.
If the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC triggers a chain reaction, prompting more oil-producing countries dissatisfied with production quotas to follow suit, OPEC’s collective regulatory capacity will further weaken, potentially ushering the global energy market into an era of 'decentralized competition,' with more frequent fluctuations in oil prices.
Editor/Deng