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Futu Morning Brief | With 60 days of war powers authorization nearing expiration, Trump claims to be in 'phone negotiations' with Iran; countdown begins for a new Federal Reserve chair as Warsh clears a key Senate hurdle and Powell announces he will remai

Futu News ·  Apr 30 08:09

Top News

  • Powell's 'farewell meeting' reveals the largest divergence in 34 years, the Federal Reserve remains on hold again, but four voting members dissent from the resolution statement.

The Federal Reserve, as expected by the market, paused rate cuts for the third consecutive meeting, with the number of dissenters increasing from one to four. Among them, Governor Milan insisted on a 25-basis-point rate cut this year, while three regional Fed presidents supported no rate cut but opposed retaining an easing bias in the statement. The statement reiterated readiness to adjust the monetary policy stance appropriately when necessary. It noted that the situation in the Middle East has exacerbated significant uncertainties in the economic outlook and highlighted that higher inflation partly stems from recent global energy price increases. 'The New York Fed Wire': There is serious division within the Fed over whether to signal the possibility of further rate cuts in the future.

During the subsequent press conference, Powell stated that he would remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends on May 15 and will not leave the board until investigations against him are fully concluded. He also pledged not to obstruct the new chair’s policymaking, vowing never to act as a 'shadow chair.' During his tenure as a governor, he will maintain a low profile and support the new chair. He believes that the current interest rate is close to neutral or slightly high, and there is no rush to change rates or guidance until inflation becomes clearer.

  • Wash’s nomination as Fed Chair cleared the U.S. Senate and is expected to be confirmed in May.

According to Bloomberg, the Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines on Wednesday to approve Wash's nomination. This vote removed a major obstacle for a full Senate vote. If ultimately confirmed, Wash will take over the Fed before the end of Powell's term on May 15. Wash has pledged to reduce the Fed's balance sheet and establish a new framework for managing inflation, though details remain scarce. Nick Timiraos of the Fed Wire pointed out that Wash’s nomination received no Democratic support, marking the first time in history that such a vote occurred strictly along party lines.

  • Trump: ‘Phone negotiations’ ongoing with Iran; complete abandonment of nuclear weapons is a precondition for any agreement.

On Wednesday local time, Trump stated in the Oval Office of the White House that the U.S. and Iran were negotiating via telephone, emphasizing that Iran must clearly commit to completely abandoning nuclear weapons. Earlier that day, he told reporters that dialogue between the U.S. and Iran had been ongoing, but he had no intention of sending another U.S. delegation to Pakistan, which currently acts as a 'mediator.' He noted that 'communication via telephone' was convenient. According to Trump, some progress has been made in the negotiations, but the question remains whether Iran’s concessions will meet U.S. demands.

This Friday marks the official 60th day of the Iran war. As this milestone approaches, attitudes among congressional Republicans have shown a clear shift. An increasing number of Republican lawmakers are no longer willing to let the legislative branch passively yield or stand aside in foreign military actions, and have begun seriously discussing whether Congress must formally authorize the war against Iran.

  • Inflationary pressures hit record highs! Nationwide gasoline prices surged 40% over two months to $4.17 per gallon, reaching a four-year high.

The conflict in the Middle East has led to disruptions in the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, causing a continued surge in U.S. gasoline prices. On April 28, the national average price reached $4.17 per gallon, marking a four-year high and representing an increase of approximately 40% from $2.98 on February 26 before the outbreak of the conflict. Despite Trump's optimistic prediction of a significant drop in oil prices, his escalation of threats and statements regarding prolonged blockades have exacerbated market concerns. The spike in oil prices is impacting consumer spending and adding pressure to the outlook for U.S. inflation.

  • UBS Group significantly raises lithium price forecasts: This cycle is completely different from the past.

UBS Group significantly raised its lithium price forecast, targeting battery-grade lithium carbonate at $42,000 (approximately 280,000 RMB) per ton by 2027, a 47% increase from previous estimates. The 2026 target price was revised upward by 17%. This cycle in lithium differs markedly from previous ones, driven by explosive growth in energy storage, accelerated EV adoption, and China’s truck electrification, creating demand growth far outpacing supply responsiveness.

  • Anthropic could reach a valuation of $900 billion, potentially surpassing OpenAI to become the leader in AI.

Sources reveal that Anthropic is considering a new funding round, with a potential valuation exceeding $900 billion, positioning it to surpass OpenAI as the world's most valuable AI startup. Google and Amazon have committed $10 billion and $5 billion respectively, with the possibility of additional investments, although their participation in this potential round remains unclear.

U.S. stock market recap

  • Storage and optical communication concepts performed strongly, with the Nasdaq index posting a slight gain while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the fifth consecutive day.

On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling for the fifth consecutive day. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.57%, the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.04%.

$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$ Most stocks declined, with NVIDIA falling 1.79%, Google C down 0.05%, Apple dropping 0.2%, Microsoft declining 1.12%, Amazon rising 1.29%, Broadcom increasing 1.41%, Meta Platforms falling 0.33%, and Tesla decreasing 0.86%.

$Popular Chinese Concept Stocks (LIST2517.US)$ Stocks were mixed, with TAL Education Group up 0.74%, Nio gaining 0.47%, and PDD Holdings rising 0.39%; Pony AI fell 6.46%, Baidu dropped 3.78%, and Tencent Music declined 1.85%.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US) The index rose 2.35%, with 27 of its 30 components closing higher. NXP Semiconductors surged 25.55%, Intel climbed 12.1% to a new high, and Astera Labs advanced 7.39%. Teradyne fell 19.41%.

$Storage Concept Stocks (LIST23925.US)$ The sector strengthened significantly, with Silicon Motion Technology jumping 45.8%, Seagate Technology rising 11.1%, SanDisk increasing 6.17%, Western Digital climbing 5.57%, Micron Technology gaining 2.81%, and Rambus advancing 0.8%.

$Optical Communication(LIST23979.US)$ Most stocks rose, with Applied Optoelectronics surging 11.34%, Nokia climbing 10.27%, and Lumentum Holdings increasing 8.46%.

Individual stock information

  • Google's parent company reported a 22% revenue growth in Q1, surpassing expectations, driven by AI-powered growth across multiple business segments, with cloud revenue surging 63%.

Google-A (GOOGL.US) Shares rose more than 7% after hours as Q1 revenue increased 22% year-over-year to $109.9 billion (vs. expectations of $107.1 billion), and net profit soared 81% year-over-year to $62.6 billion, including a non-liquid equity gain of $36.9 billion. The CEO stated, "AI is lighting up every corner of our business," with search volumes hitting record highs, Google Cloud’s order backlog nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter to over $460 billion, and Gemini's paid monthly active users growing 40% month-over-month.

  • Amazon's cloud business bolstered Q1 revenue growth, with AWS achieving its highest revenue growth in nearly two years and capital expenditure surpassing expectations.

$Amazon(AMZN.US)$ Shares rose more than 3% after hours as Q1 revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Operating margin hit a new high of over 13%, and net profit increased 77%, driven by a pre-tax gain of $16.8 billion from its investment in Anthropic, which accounted for more than half of net profits. AWS revenue rose 28% year-over-year, and capital expenditures on real estate and equipment over the past 12 months increased 160% year-over-year.Free cash flowA decline of 95% highlights the pressure from AI investments; Q2 revenue guidance significantly exceeded expectations, with a midpoint increase of over 17% year-over-year, benefiting from Prime Day in the quarter, while profit guidance midpoint was slightly below expectations; the earnings call noted that this year’s Prime Day was moved up by one month to June.

  • Meta's Q1 revenue grew 33%, slightly exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to a maximum of $145 billion.

$Meta Platforms(META.US)$ Shares fell nearly 7% after hours. Q1 revenue reached $56.3 billion (analysts expected $55.51 billion) and net profit was $26.8 billion, increasing by 33% and 61% year-over-year respectively, both surpassing expectations. Due to rising hardware component prices, the company raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to between $125 billion and $145 billion.

  • Microsoft's revenue last quarter exceeded expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing by 40%, while capital expenditure unexpectedly slowed.

Microsoft (MSFT.US) Shares initially fell over 3% in after-hours trading before turning positive, currently down 0.66%. Microsoft's third fiscal quarter revenue increased 18% year-over-year, with EPS up 23%, exceeding analyst expectations by over 5%; annualized AI revenue surpassed $37 billion, growing 123% year-over-year, and commercial RPO doubled year-over-year; intelligent cloud revenue rose 30%, with Azure revenue growth slightly above expectations, but intelligent cloud profit margins declined 1.8 percentage points year-over-year; capital expenditure growth slowed to 49% year-over-year from 66% in the previous quarter, down nearly 15% sequentially from record highs; Windows and Xbox were weak, leading to a 1% decline in personal computing revenue, though search advertising revenue grew 12%.

  • Qualcomm's mobile chip shipments fell 13% in Q2, but the CEO 'sees the bottom,' with data centers emerging as the new lifeline.

Qualcomm (QCOM.US) Shares rose nearly 14% following the release of its Q2 2026 financial report, with revenue reaching $10.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3%, and earnings per share at $2.65, both surpassing expectations. Automobile and IoT businesses performed strongly, but smartphone chip revenue declined 13% year-over-year. The Q3 outlook fell short of market expectations due to memory shortages. The CEO stated that the smartphone market would bottom out and recover in Q3. Shares initially fell in after-hours trading before rebounding over 10%.

  • Apple plans to introduce Siri Camera Mode and enhance visual artificial intelligence capabilities in iOS 27.

$Apple(AAPL.US)$ The company plans to integrate artificial intelligence more deeply into the iPhone camera app in its upcoming iOS 27 operating system. It will incorporate visual intelligence functionality directly into the camera app itself and add a Siri mode alongside standard photo and video options. With the new mode, users can point the camera at an object and ask questions about it or the scene using services like ChatGPT.

  • Ford Motor’s total revenue for the first quarter reached $43.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.4%.

Ford Motor's total revenue in the first quarter was $43.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, compared to $0.14 in the same period last year, with an estimate of $0.19. The adjusted EBIT was $3.5 billion, compared to $1 billion in the same period last year, with an estimate of $1.26 billion.

Top 20 by trading value

Hong Kong Market Outlook

  • Southbound capital reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks by over HK$3.9 billion, net buying nearly HK$500 million worth of China Construction Bank shares, increasing holdings in Changfei Fiber Optic Cable by over HK$200 million, and net selling Tencent shares worth over HK$700 million.

On Wednesday, April 29, southbound capital net sold HK$3.952 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks.

$China Construction Bank (00939.HK)$CNOOC Limited (00883.HK)Changfei Fiber Optic Cables (Stock Code: 06869.HK)Net inflows amounted to HK$494 million, HK$331 million, and HK$227 million respectively.

$Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828.HK)$$Tracker Fund (02800.HK)$Tencent (00700.HK)Net selling reached HKD 22.74 billion, HKD 9.28 billion, and HKD 7.33 billion, respectively.

  • PetroChina's Q1 net profit increased by 2% year-over-year to RMB 48.3 billion, setting a new quarterly record.

In the first quarter,$PetroChina(00857.HK)$ Net profit attributable to shareholders amounted to RMB 48.33 billion, increasing by 1.9% year-over-year, marking the best quarterly performance in history. Strong downstream segments such as natural gas sales (profit up 39.7%) and refining (profit up 57.7%) effectively offset a 12.5% decline in upstream profits caused by oil price divergence. Renewable energy businesses like wind and solar power generation surged by 38.5%, demonstrating rapid expansion.

  • Driven by rising volume and prices, Ganfeng Lithium's Q1 revenue increased 144% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.84 billion yuan reversing previous losses.

$Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK)$ Q1 revenue reached RMB 9.196 billion, representing a 143.81% year-over-year increase; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.837 billion compared to a loss of RMB 356 million in the same period last year, achieving a turnaround from losses to profitability. A combination of higher volumes and prices drove the core business recovery, improving gross margins while research and development investment increased by 89%. Investment gains and financial asset appreciation collectively contributed approximately RMB 534 million, providing additional support to profits. Operating cash flow turned positive to RMB 787 million.

  • Amid a supply shortage of memory chips, GigaDevice’s Q1 revenue surged 119% year-on-year, with net profit skyrocketing by 523%.

GigaDevice (03986.HK) Q1 revenue was RMB 4.188 billion, a 119% year-over-year increase; net profit reached RMB 1.461 billion, surging by 523% year-over-year. The main drivers were rising volume and prices in memory chips and robust demand across multiple sectors for microcontrollers. Gross margin improved significantly, expense ratios decreased comprehensively, and non-GAAP net profit grew by 530%, reflecting solid core business performance. The H-share listing boosted cash reserves, reducing the debt-to-asset ratio to 8.13% while operating cash flow increased by 431%.

  • Changfei Fiber Optic Cables reported Q1 revenue growth of 27.7% and net profit of RMB 495 million, up 226.4% year-over-year.

In the first quarter,Changfei Fiber Optic Cables (Stock Code: 06869.HK) Revenue reached RMB 3.695 billion, growing by 27.70% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 495 million, increasing by 226.40%; non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 461 million, surging by 966.44% year-over-year.

Today's Focus

Keywords: Apple, SanDisk, Eli Lilly and Co release earnings reports.

In terms of performance, Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US) Companies release earnings reports before the market opens, $Apple(AAPL.US)$$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$$Western Digital (WDC.US)$ Companies release earnings reports after the market closes.

Futubull AI Morning Reading:

Ten-bagger stocks are 'waited out,' not 'chased after.'

— Peter Lynch

WebPLooking to pick stocks or diagnose stock performance? Want to know the opportunities and risks in your portfolio? For all investment-related questions,just ask Futubull AI!

Editor/KOKO

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