①According to information obtained by the Cailian News Agency from air freight forwarders, cargo flights operated by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways have partially resumed, but market freight rates remain high, with U.S. routes surging to RMB 60 per kilogram; ②Experts have stated that the resumption of flights by Middle Eastern airlines will indeed slow the rise in freight rates due to increased capacity, but insufficient recovery of capacity combined with persistently high costs will continue to support freight rates.
Cailian News Agency, May 1 (reported by Hu Haoqiong) The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with passage through the Strait of Hormuz still obstructed. However, several airlines in the Middle East region have begun gradually resuming cargo flight operations. According to information obtained by the Cailian News Agency from air freight forwarders, cargo flights operated by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways have partially resumed, with market freight rates remaining at a high level.
“Due to various factors related to the situation in the Middle East, air freight rates are continuing to rise. Recently, freight rates for flights to Europe have reached over RMB 40 per kilogram in some cases, while the highest rates for U.S. routes have risen to around RMB 60 per kilogram, compared to about RMB 32 per kilogram in mid-March.” An air freight forwarding source told the Cailian News Agency that although Q1 is typically the off-season for air freight, the situation in the Middle East has completely disrupted shippers' delivery schedules.
Experts have stated that overall, the resumption of flights by Middle Eastern airlines and the increase in capacity will indeed slow the rise in freight rates. However, insufficient recovery of capacity combined with persistently high costs will continue to support freight rates.
Limited Resumption of Cargo Flights in the Middle East Pushes Market Freight Rates to Multi-Year Highs
At present, the resumption of cargo flights in the Middle East is mainly concentrated among airlines in the region. According to information obtained by the Cailian News Agency, Qatar Airways Cargo announced the resumption of cargo flights to Dubai World Central Airport (DWC) on April 26, with two flights per week, and the resumption of cargo flights to Sharjah (SHJ) on May 1, with three flights per week.
The bellyhold capacity of passenger aircraft will also provide supply to the air cargo market. Specifically, Qatar Airways announced that starting from June 16, 2026, until September 15, it would add multiple new routes and increase flight frequencies to and from Doha, expanding its global network to cover more than 150 destinations.
Data provided by Flight管家 shows that during the period from April 23 to April 30, outbound passenger flights from China to the Middle East had recovered to 64.1% of pre-conflict levels.
However, according to information obtained by the Cailian News Agency from Cathay Pacific Airways (stock code: 00293.HK), based on safety considerations, the airline has canceled all passenger flights to and from Dubai and Riyadh scheduled for the end of June. Cargo flights to these two destinations have also been suspended until further notice.
Regarding Air China Cargo (stock code: 001391.SZ), which launched the Chengdu-Dubai route last year, a representative from its securities department told the Cailian News Agency, posing as an investor: “Flights were suspended for a period due to the situation in the Middle East. Moving forward, we may reassess the situation as the situation stabilizes.”
Despite the partial recovery of Middle Eastern airlines' flights, freight rates in the region remain high. 'At present, customers are less able to bear the current air freight rates unless the cargo is extremely urgent or highly profitable; most are waiting for a price drop,' a freight forwarding source told Caixin.
'On one hand, the resumption of freighter and belly capacity by airlines like Qatar Airways, coupled with adjustments in global airline networks, has indeed increased supply capacity, leading to signs of a slowdown in the rise of global freight rates and gradual stabilization by mid-April. On the other hand, capacity recovery is not yet fully in place, while fuel costs have surged over 110%, driving up operating costs and providing support for freight rates,' Li Xiaojin, Director of the Institute of Aviation Economics and Development at the Civil Aviation University of China, told Caixin.
Beyond the Middle Eastern routes, other markets are still affected by factors such as high aviation fuel prices and limited fuel inventory.
Li Xiaojin further explained that, for example, freight rates on Europe-America routes, while showing some decline from their peak in the short term, are unlikely to drop significantly and quickly due to geopolitical risk premiums and cost pressures.
'Currently, flight cancellations in May originating from China are primarily concentrated on U.S. routes, with some Southeast Asian routes also being canceled. The main reasons are unresolved fuel shortages at local airports and high oil costs, which have impacted operations,' the aforementioned air freight forwarding source told Caixin, adding, 'Generally, e-commerce companies adjust prices during the May Day holiday period, so a slight decline in Europe-America route freight rates is expected starting May 4, but whether there will be a rebound afterward requires further observation.'
According to Commodity Price Network data, the price of aviation kerosene (new) was quoted at $176.64 per barrel on April 28, remaining at a historically high level. In terms of freight rates, the BAI index published by the Baltic Exchange shows that air freight prices have been rising steadily since March 2, reaching 2,772 points as of April 27, an increase of nearly 40% compared to March 2, surpassing last year's peak season freight rates and setting a new high since January 16, 2023.
Meanwhile, some air logistics enterprises continue to expand into the China-Europe air freight market. Recently, COSCO SHP SG launched its 'Chongqing-Milan Direct Air Freight Charter Fixed Price' product, operating four weekly round-trip charter flights between Chongqing and Milan, Italy, primarily serving industries such as apparel, automotive, healthcare, and chemicals.
Market Seasonality Disrupted; Difficult to Predict Trends for the Second Half of the Year
For businesses, this disrupted seasonality in the air freight market presents both opportunities and challenges.
'Originally, air logistics companies did not expect much from the market this year, so forwarders signed annual agreements with airlines at prices lower than current spot rates.' The aforementioned air freight forwarder revealed to Caixin that some routes had premiums exceeding 10 yuan per kilogram, and despite the increase in fuel surcharges, profit margins remained sufficient, resulting in strong Q1 earnings performance for companies.
However, the Q1 performance of A-share aviation logistics-related enterprises showed some differentiation.
In terms of freight forwarding and logistics companies, Sinotrans (601598.SH) achieved operating revenue of 21.55 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 681 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 615 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Specifically, the company's air freight agency volume reached 163,000 tons in Q1, compared with 154,000 tons in the same period last year.
Among airlines, China Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156.SH) reported operating revenue of 6.518 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 18.81%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 578 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%.
Air China Cargo achieved revenue of 5.22 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 472 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%.
Regarding this, Li Xiaojin analyzed that the reasons for the differentiated performance between China Eastern Airlines Logistics and Air China Cargo lie in the differences in capacity expansion timing and major market environments. China Eastern Airlines Logistics introduced one B777 full cargo aircraft in Q1, increasing its fleet size to 19 aircraft. Combined with enhanced belly-hold capacity from passenger flights, it directly drove a 36.4% year-on-year increase in air cargo business revenue, boosting overall profit growth. Meanwhile, Air China Cargo's core air cargo market share came under pressure, with comprehensive gross margin decreasing by 4.42 percentage points year-on-year.
“It is worth mentioning that Shanghai’s total foreign trade volume in Q1 2026 was approximately 1.6 times that of Beijing. With its leading national port functions, Shanghai handles a large volume of transshipment trade, demonstrating significant scale advantages. Leveraging Shanghai’s geographical superiority, China Eastern Airlines Logistics performed more outstandingly compared to Air China Cargo, which operates at an away-field disadvantage,” Li Xiaojin remarked.
However, regarding market conditions in the second half of this year, the aforementioned air freight forwarding source frankly told reporters from Cailian Press that both cargo volume and freight rates remain unknown factors and are difficult to predict. Additionally, negotiations for long-term agreements at the end of this year, including the amount of charter space and contract pricing, will become particularly challenging.