In terms of economic data, the U.S. released its April non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. Regarding financial events, several Fed officials delivered speeches, and Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU vehicles exported to the U.S., effective next week. In earnings reports, AMD, Palantir, and optical module leaders Lumentum and Coherent are set to disclose their financial results. Additionally, Japan may intervene in the foreign exchange market again at any time during the Golden Week holiday.
Overview of Key Schedules for the New Week
U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data Released
The non-farm payroll report for April, released on Friday, is expected to show robust job growth of 60,000 new positions, accelerating wage growth, a stable unemployment rate, and rising labor force participation. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, private-sector employment growth is likely to be even stronger. This not only marks the end of significant fluctuations in employment data over the first three months of the year but also signals that the job market is returning to a state better than the norm in 2025 — when average monthly private-sector job growth was only 25,000.
“So far, the U.S. economy has proven resilient to oil shocks, with certain sectors even benefiting from the conflict — for instance, trade data will show a sharp increase in U.S. energy exports in April. One reason for the resilience in economic activity is that labor market conditions appear to be stabilizing and may even be improving. Job openings remain steady overall, large companies are still hiring, although small businesses have not expanded their recruitment,” Bloomberg analysts noted.
Earnings Releases from Palantir, Lumentum, Coherent, and AMD
The US earnings season will continue next week, with 121 companies in the S&P 500 Index set to release their reports.
Market attention next week will shift to earnings reports from companies such as AMD, Palantir, Lumentum, and CoreWeave. So far this earnings season, approximately 82% of S&P 500 index component companies have exceeded profit expectations, up from 77% in the entire earnings season a year ago.
Tajinder Dhillon of LSEG Data & Analytics stated that as of Friday, overall earnings for the S&P 500 Index are expected to grow by 27.8% year-on-year. This would mark the highest profit growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Chris Senyek, Chief Investment Strategist at Wolfe, wrote in a report on Friday: 'As large-cap tech earnings remain solid, adding further momentum to the AI theme, we believe investors may continue to chase sectors perceived as tech winners, such as semiconductors and memory.'
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Group's Chief Investment Office remarked: 'Both performance and forward guidance have been strong. The technology sector is leading the way, but earnings growth is broadening, supported by resilient consumer spending and signs of cyclical recovery.'
Uncertainty in the Middle East Situation! Trump States Possibility of Resuming Airstrikes
On the evening of May 2nd Eastern Time, Trump, in an interview, mentioned the possibility of the US resuming airstrikes against Iran. In a social media post, he said he would soon review Iran's latest proposal but 'could not imagine' it being 'acceptable,' and warned that Iran 'has not paid a high enough price.'
Earlier that day, before boarding Air Force One, Trump stated he would comment later on Iran’s latest proposal. Earlier, Iranian sources indicated that Iran had submitted a 14-point plan through Pakistan in response to the nine-point proposal previously put forward by the US.
Trump: A 25% Tariff on EU Vehicles and Trucks Exported to the U.S. Will Be Imposed
According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, U.S. President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to comply with the trade agreement reached between both parties, the U.S. would impose tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the EU in the week of May 4, increasing the tariff rate to 25%. Trump said that companies setting up production in the United States would be exempt from these tariffs.
During the Golden Week, Japan May Intervene Again in the Foreign Exchange Market to Support the Yen
During the Golden Week holiday (May 3 to 5), the Japanese market will be closed, and liquidity is expected to significantly contract. Historically, this period has witnessed sharp currency fluctuations multiple times. Analysts have warned that this window could again become a target for speculators and might also trigger further intervention by authorities in the foreign exchange market. On April 30, Japan intervened in the forex market for the first time in nearly two years, spending over $90 billion to buy yen, driving the yen up by 3%, its largest gain in four years. After the intervention ended, Japanese officials hinted they were ready to re-enter the market during the Golden Week period, keeping markets on high alert for another round of intervention.
After the Interest Rate Meeting, Several Fed Officials Including Permanent FOMC Voter Williams Will Speak
At the policy meeting held on April 28-29, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as expected. Following the interest rate decision meeting, permanent voting member of the FOMC, Williams, and several other Fed officials are scheduled to make public statements.
Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the 'Fed whisperer,' stated that a critical shift has occurred in the internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Officials are no longer debating when to resume cutting rates but have begun discussing the conditions under which a rate hike would be necessary. Behind this shift is the Fed's realization that the energy shock caused by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz differs from previous supply disruptions that could dissipate on their own – months of high oil prices are sufficient to permeate broader price systems and influence inflation expectations among households and businesses, making the maintenance of the current accommodative stance increasingly unsustainable.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Related Readings[With Prizes] Earnings season continues! PLTR, AMD, LITE, RKLB take the stage one after another; a quick recap of earnings from May 4 to May 8.
Monday (May 4)
Keywords: Monthly factory orders; Palantir; Tianxing Healthcare grey market
In terms of economic data, the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders for March will be released.
22:00 U.S. March factory orders month-over-month rate
Earnings reports: $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks, $STAR SPORTS MED (01609.HK)$ will begin grey market trading at 16:15.
In terms of market closures, the Hong Kong stock market will operate normally while the A-share market will be closed. The southbound and northbound trading will be suspended.
Tuesday (May 5)
Keywords: HSBC Holdings; Advanced Micro Devices; Lumentum; U.S. PMI; Tianxing Medical; Cofoe Medical
In terms of economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision as of May 5, the U.S. March trade balance, the final reading of S&P Global's U.S. April services PMI, the U.S. April ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the U.S. March JOLTs job openings, and the annualized total new home sales for March will be released.
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision as of May 5
20:30 U.S. March trade balance
21:45 U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final for April
22:00 U.S. April ISM non-manufacturing PMI, U.S. March JOLTs job openings, annualized total new home sales for March
In terms of major events, at 0:50, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a speech.
Earnings reports: $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports at noon. $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ 、 $PayPal (PYPL.US)$ released its earnings report before the US stock market opened, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ 、 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ 、 $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ 、 $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ 、 $Tempus AI (TEM.US)$ 、 $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ 、 $Pan American Silver (PAAS.US)$ will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks, $STAR SPORTS MED (01609.HK)$ will officially go public, $COFOE MEDICAL (01187.HK)$ began its grey market trading.
In terms of market closures, the Hong Kong stock market will operate normally while the A-share market will be closed. The southbound and northbound trading will be suspended.
Wednesday (May 6)
Keywords: crude oil; China PMI; ADP; Novo-Nordisk A/S; Applovin; Coherent; Coherent Medical
In terms of economic data, the following will be released: API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 in the United States, China's April RatingDog Services PMI, U.S. ADP employment numbers for April, and EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 in the United States.
4:30 AM - U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1
9:45 AM - China's April RatingDog Services PMI
8:15 PM - U.S. ADP employment numbers for April
10:30 PM - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1
Regarding major events, at 9:30 PM, Musallem, the 2028 FOMC voter and President of the St. Louis Fed, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
Earnings reports: $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$ 、 $Disney (DIS.US)$ 、 $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ released its earnings report before the US stock market opened, $Coherent (COHR.US)$ 、 $Applovin (APP.US)$ 、 $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ 、 $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ 、 $Albemarle (ALB.US)$ will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks, $COFOE MEDICAL (01187.HK)$ Officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Thursday (May 7)
Keywords: unemployment benefits; Rocket Lab; Coinbase; Applied Optoelectronics; CoreWeave
In terms of economic data, the following will be released: U.S. Challenger enterprise layoffs for April, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, monthly construction spending for March, EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 1, and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation for April.
19:30 U.S. Challenger enterprise layoffs for April
20:30 Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 2
22:00 Monthly construction spending rate in the U.S. for March
22:30 EIA natural gas inventory in the U.S. for the week ending May 1 (in billion cubic feet)
23:00 New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation for April
In terms of major events, at 1:00, Goolsbee, a voting member of the 2027 FOMC and president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, will participate in a panel discussion at a conference.
Earnings reports: $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ 、 $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ 、 $Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $IREN Ltd (IREN.US)$ 、 $MP Materials (MP.US)$ 、 $Red Cat Holdings (RCAT.US)$ 、 $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ will release earnings reports after the US stock market closes.
Friday (May 8)
Keywords: Non-farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; Ledong Robotics
In terms of economic data, the U.S. April non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, initial reading of the one-year inflation expectation for May, and the initial reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be released with significant impact.
20:30 U.S. April seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population (in tens of thousands), U.S. April unemployment rate
22:00 U.S. May initial reading of one-year inflation expectation, U.S. May initial reading of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, U.S. March wholesale sales month-over-month rate
In terms of major events, at 2:05, Hamak, the 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, will deliver a speech; at 3:30, Williams, permanent voter of the FOMC and President of the New York Federal Reserve, will deliver a speech.
In terms of new stocks, $LDROBOT (01236.HK)$ began its grey market trading.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/Lambor