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Parallel Landscape Approaches: Sodium-ion Battery Costs Expected to Match Lithium-ion This Year; Material Shortages May Affect Scale-up | Fax

cls.cn ·  May 23 15:03

① Multiple companies stated they expect to achieve large-scale mass production of sodium-ion batteries in Q4 2026, narrowing the gap with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries; ② The industry has commissioned multiple 10,000-ton-class sodium battery material production lines, which will bring sodium battery costs in line with lithium-ion batteries. Widespread adoption is expected in the second half of next year through the following year, with energy storage applications leading initial volume deployment; ③ Mature, large-scale supply chains for key upstream sodium battery materials have not yet formed, resulting in significant supply gaps, prompting intensified R&D and capacity expansion efforts.

Cailian Press, May 23 (Reporter Liu Mengran) — After several years of market cultivation, large-scale delivery of sodium-ion batteries is now on the agenda. Following CATL’s (300750.SZ) official announcement of its mass production timeline and a major order signed with HiPower Energy, Wang Yifei, Dean of the Advanced Technology Research Division at Gotion High-Tech (002074.SZ), told Cailian Press reporters at the 2026 Global Tech Conference that the company expects to achieve large-scale mass production of sodium-ion batteries by the fourth quarter of 2026.

In addition to leading companies’ mass production plans, Cailian Press reporters observed that nearly all top-tier battery manufacturers showcased their latest sodium-ion batteries and related materials at the 18th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange Conference & Exhibition (CIBF2026) held this month, stating they already possess the necessary conditions for mass production. This indicates the sodium-ion battery industry has fully moved beyond laboratory R&D and sample validation and is now entering the phase of large-scale commercialization.

According to Cailian Press interviews with multiple industry sources, some companies have already reduced sodium cell manufacturing costs from RMB 0.35–0.45/Wh in Q1 of this year to RMB 0.30/Wh. Industry insiders optimistically forecast that sodium battery costs could reach parity with lithium-ion batteries within this year. However, material shortages are expected to become a bottleneck for scaling up production, and upstream material suppliers are accelerating capacity expansion.

Wang Yifei believes that, from an industry-wide perspective, once sodium-ion batteries achieve full-scale industrialization, they will effectively moderate fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices and alleviate raw material cost pressures across the entire supply chain. Integrating sodium- and lithium-based batteries with photovoltaic energy systems to build cost-competitive new energy power infrastructure will become the most robust mainstream development model for the future new energy sector.

Progress: Leading enterprises have initiated preparations for mass production

In 2026, sodium-ion battery industrialization is accelerating across the board. Cailian Press reporters noted at the CIBF2026 exhibition that sodium-ion batteries have become a must-display flagship product for virtually all leading battery manufacturers.

The CIBF2026 exhibition covered a total area of 280,000 square meters, spanning 14 specialized thematic pavilions. Exhibits included core upstream raw materials such as cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators; midstream cell products in various specifications; and downstream applications across diverse scenarios including energy storage, new energy vehicles, two-wheelers, and specialized equipment.

Among battery manufacturers, numerous leading players—including CATL, BYD (002594.SZ), Sunwoda (300207.SZ), HiNa Battery, and PHE (300438.SZ)—all brought their latest sodium-ion battery technologies and products to the event, prominently showcasing them in prime exhibition areas.

On the materials side, leading suppliers such as Ronbay Technology (688005.SH), Jiana Energy, Zhongna Energy, and ENTECH (002812.SZ) also participated comprehensively. ENTECH launched a new generation of sodium-ion battery-specific separators, LanGu New Energy showcased high-rate, wide-temperature-range sodium battery electrolytes, and Ejin New Energy displayed a series of products including hard carbon anodes and porous carbon precursors for sodium-ion batteries.

In terms of performance parameters, sodium-ion battery products launched and exhibited by leading battery manufacturers generally have an energy density of approximately 160–180 Wh/kg, while mainstream lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries used in high-end passenger vehicles can reach around 190 Wh/kg, further narrowing the gap in energy density between the two.

At the aforementioned exhibition, a representative from Sunwoda stated that under a 1C charge-discharge rate, the company’s sodium-ion battery products achieve a cycle life exceeding 20,000 cycles. In the automotive sector, these products are primarily targeted at new energy vehicles operating in extremely cold regions, delivering over 80% usable capacity at –40°C and achieving an energy density of 180 Wh/kg.

An executive from HiNa Battery Technology informed Caixin Global that, with continuous technological iteration, the company’s next-generation cathode material has significantly improved in energy density, reducing the gap with LFP batteries to within 10%.

Gotion High-Tech recently unveiled a sodium-ion battery product featuring an anode-free cell design, which substantially boosts energy density. The energy storage version offers a single-cell capacity of 180 Ah, while the power version achieves an energy density of 162 Wh/kg.

CATL reported that its second-generation sodium-ion battery has achieved an energy density of 175 Wh/kg—approaching that of LFP batteries—with a cycle life exceeding 10,000 cycles and retaining 90% of its cell energy capacity even at –40°C in extreme cold conditions.

Beyond performance metrics, leading companies have also overcome key industry challenges hindering mass production. CATL previously announced it had successfully resolved four major technical hurdles related to sodium-ion battery mass manufacturing and expects to begin volume production in the fourth quarter. Gotion High-Tech declared it has addressed critical safety issues such as sodium dendrite formation and thermal runaway by optimizing electrolyte formulations to establish a robust safety protection system, enabling its sodium-ion batteries to pass stringent safety tests.

Gotion High-Tech told Caixin Global that its sodium-ion battery products are now ready for mass production, and the company has already initiated preparatory work, with volume production and delivery expected in the fourth quarter of this year.

Cost: Industry insiders optimistically anticipate parity with lithium-ion batteries within this year.

Since 2026, as lithium prices have continued to rise, the cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries has become increasingly evident. On May 22, SMM quoted the spot average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at RMB 177,500 per ton and industrial-grade lithium carbonate at RMB 174,500 per ton. According to industry estimates, sodium-ion batteries become economically viable when lithium carbonate prices exceed RMB 120,000 per ton.

Public data shows that in Q1 2026, the cell cost of sodium-ion batteries had already fallen to RMB 0.35–0.40 per Wh, narrowing the price gap with LFP batteries to less than RMB 0.10 per Wh. Institutional research reports forecast that by 2030, sodium-ion cell costs will decline further to RMB 0.25 per Wh.

Caixin reporters have learned that leading enterprises have already achieved a cell cost level of RMB 0.35/Wh, with some sodium-ion battery production lines further reducing costs to approximately RMB 0.30/Wh. This is mostly attributed to optimized designs involving polyanionic cathodes, hard carbon anodes, and aluminum foil current collectors, though it has not yet become the industry norm. Currently, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells cost around RMB 0.30–0.35/Wh.

“After the second half of this year, multiple industrial-scale sodium-ion battery production lines—each with annual capacities of tens of thousands of tons—will come online, enabling sodium-ion batteries to reach cost parity with lithium-ion batteries. Widespread adoption is expected between the second half of next year and the year after,” Wang Yifei told Caixin.

However, more optimistic voices in the industry believe that sodium-ion and lithium-ion batteries could achieve cost parity within this year. Gan Lin, Deputy General Manager of Zhongna Energy, told Caixin that when lithium carbonate prices stabilize above RMB 150,000 per ton, sodium-ion batteries will reach price parity with lithium-ion batteries. He added that the current price has already passed the tipping point, and parity will be achieved by 2026.

A representative from a sodium-ion battery company told Caixin that polyanionic sodium-ion batteries hold significant advantages over LFP and lead-acid batteries across four key dimensions: manufacturing cost, low-temperature performance, safety, and rate capability.

With mature technology, the manufacturing cost of polyanionic sodium-ion phosphate batteries can be reduced to RMB 0.20–0.30/Wh. Their core advantage lies in the abundant reserves of sodium resources and further cost savings from current collector materials, resulting in stronger price stability. In comparison, LFP battery manufacturing costs range from RMB 0.25–0.35/Wh and are highly sensitive to fluctuations in upstream lithium carbonate prices, making their cost structure less stable than that of sodium-ion batteries.

It is understood that raw materials account for approximately 30%–40% of sodium-ion battery costs, with the remainder comprising manufacturing, depreciation, yield rates, and other factors. Industry consensus holds that 'economies of scale plus domestic material sourcing' are key to driving sodium-ion battery costs below RMB 0.30/Wh.

Application Scenarios: Energy Storage Stations May Soon See Diversified Growth

In terms of application scenarios, there is broad industry consensus that energy storage will be the first sector to experience large-scale adoption.

Qian Zhenhua, President of Envision Energy’s Energy Storage Cell Business, told Caixin that sodium-ion batteries will first achieve large-scale deployment in AIDCs (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) and in extreme temperature environments (both high and low). The core strengths of sodium-ion batteries lie in their high-rate capability and high safety profile—they support 6C discharge rates, making them ideal for AIDC energy storage applications following GPU upgrades. As production capacity ramps up and the supply chain matures, sodium-ion batteries are expected to carve out a differentiated growth path in the energy storage market, complementing lithium-ion batteries in a synergistic manner. Currently, energy storage applications in AIDCs fall into three main categories: off-site (outside the campus), medium-voltage side (35kV), and board-level (chip power supply).

In the energy storage sector, in April this year, CATL announced a strategic cooperation agreement with Haibosi Innovation (SHA: 688411) for sodium-ion batteries, securing a three-year order totaling 60 GWh.

According to Caixin reporters’ review of available data, multiple sodium-ion battery energy storage demonstration projects have already been completed in China. Among them, the second-phase expansion of the Funing Sodium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Station in Nanning, Guangxi—the country’s first 100 MWh-class sodium-ion battery energy storage facility—was officially commissioned in October last year. In January this year, the first phase of the Honghu 100 MW/200 MWh sodium-ion energy storage demonstration project, constructed by PowerChina, passed its final acceptance inspection.

Beyond the energy storage sector, industry insiders widely expect that once sodium batteries achieve scale in energy storage applications, they will likely see diversified adoption across multiple domains. 'The future will feature a coexistence of lithium and sodium batteries—anything lithium-ion batteries can do, sodium-ion batteries can also accomplish,' they said.

Leading companies are also largely pursuing multi-pronged strategies. In late April, Gao Huan, Chief Technology Officer of CATL, publicly stated that the company’s sodium-ion batteries have already passed the validation phase, achieving a range of 300 kilometers in range-extended electric vehicles and 500 kilometers in battery electric vehicles. CATL plans to deploy sodium-ion batteries first in its passenger vehicle battery-swapping systems by the end of this year or in the first half of next year.

Wang Yifei also told Caixin reporters that beyond energy storage, Gotion High-Tech’s sodium-ion batteries will gradually expand into diverse sectors such as new energy vehicles and specialized equipment, aiming to build an all-scenario sodium-ion battery application ecosystem. Future products will cover multiple use cases including energy storage, low-altitude aviation, and light-duty power applications.

A representative from HiNa Battery Technology noted that the industry broadly anticipates 2026 as the window for large-scale commercial deployment of sodium-ion batteries, and the company has already completed pilot deployments across several niche segments.

Upstream: Insufficient supply may constrain sodium battery scale-up

As uncertainties surrounding overseas lithium supply continue to rise and the dual-track industrial landscape of lithium and sodium batteries becomes further entrenched, concentrated demand for sodium-ion batteries from downstream sectors—including energy storage, consumer mobility, and data centers—has increasingly exposed capacity bottlenecks in upstream raw materials.

An executive at a materials company disclosed to Caixin reporters that a leading state-owned enterprise has already signaled demand for 12 GWh of sodium-ion battery energy storage capacity and has engaged with multiple suppliers, but many missed out on orders due to insufficient production capacity.

Wang Yifei believes that current capacity expansion in the sodium-ion battery industry is progressing slowly, with mature production lines capable of 10,000-ton annual output remaining scarce. Most materials producers can only sustain capacities at the 1,000-ton level, keeping sodium-ion battery costs persistently higher than those of lithium-ion counterparts. Although technical challenges—such as high residual alkalinity in materials, electrode moisture sensitivity, and gas generation from anodes—have been resolved and yield rates now match those of lithium-ion batteries, insufficient capacity still prevents realization of economies of scale.

Cao Yuliang, Chairman of Jiana Energy, noted that while terminal demand for batteries is growing rapidly, the upstream supply chain for critical sodium-ion battery materials has yet to establish a mature, scaled system, resulting in a significant shortfall. Even if existing 10,000-ton production lines operate at full capacity, they cannot meet procurement demands from leading downstream enterprises.

Currently, listed material companies are accelerating R&D and scaling up their production capacity. Among them, Tianci Material (002709.SZ), the global leader in electrolytes; Do-Fluoride Chemicals (002407.SZ), the leading producer of sodium hexafluorophosphate; and cathode material manufacturers such as Zhenhua New Materials (688707.SH), Ronbay Technology, and Hongxing Development are all capable of supplying core materials for sodium-ion batteries. Ronbay Technology’s 6,000-ton pilot line for NFPP in Xiantao has entered the product debugging phase, and a new production line with annual capacity of 10,000 tons is under planning and will soon be implemented.

Meanwhile, Easpring Material (300073.SZ) is currently developing both layered oxide and polyanionic cathode materials for sodium-ion batteries, with its products already in the mass validation stage. BTR New Energy Materials (920185.BJ), the global leader in hard carbon anodes, serves as a core supplier to major battery manufacturers. Shanshan Corporation (600884.SH) has focused on hard carbon anode materials, which have already been mass-applied in sodium-ion batteries, lithium-ion batteries (including semi-solid-state batteries), and supercapacitors. Sunwoda Electronic (300037.SZ) has established technical reserves for sodium-ion battery electrolytes and has secured key raw materials for these electrolytes, with cumulative deliveries reaching the thousand-ton level.

Reporters from Cailian Press noted that, in addition to leading battery makers treating materials as part of a multi-technology roadmap, non-listed companies within the industry are also intensifying their R&D and capacity expansion efforts.

A representative from HiNa Battery Technology stated that the company has already built a 10,000-ton cathode production line and completed construction of a 6,000-ton hard carbon anode line, giving it scalable delivery capabilities. “Inquiries and orders have increased significantly compared to last year. The company plans to expand its cathode and anode material capacity to several ten thousand tons over the next three to five years.”

A spokesperson from Zhongna Energy told Cailian Press that the company has simultaneously completed construction of its pilot cell production line, enabling rapid cell validation and iterative technological advancement. By collaborating with established cell manufacturers to advance GWh-scale sodium-ion cell mass production, yield rates are steadily improving while costs continue to decline. The company’s globally first 10,000-ton sodium iron sulfate cathode facility is scheduled to commence operations in January 2026. Currently, “the company has a robust order backlog, with its entire 10,000-ton cathode capacity already reserved, and inquiries for cells and two-wheeled vehicles have doubled year-over-year.”

Regarding Jiana Energy, its composite sodium iron phosphate cathode material has already passed certification by leading downstream battery manufacturers and is projected to capture nearly 70% market share in 2025. The company also holds relevant patents covering electrode materials and systems required for high-energy-density sodium-ion batteries. A company representative informed Cailian Press that it will provide corresponding materials and technologies in cathode materials, anode coatings, and electrolytes in response to rapid downstream iteration. Over the next three to five years, the company plans to scale up its phosphate-based polyanionic cathode material capacity from several ten thousand tons to several hundred thousand tons to meet downstream demand.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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