① U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the United States and Iran are negotiating the drafting of an initial framework document, though progress may not be as optimistic; both sides are still refining the wording details of the document and may need several days to resolve them. ② Rubio emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, signaling that Washington’s tolerance for any closure of the strait is limited and that military action could be taken to force it open.
On Monday local time, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the United States and Iran are negotiating the drafting of an initial framework document. He also stated, in reference to the U.S. strikes against Iran on Monday, that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.
“It must remain open under any circumstances,” he told reporters in India. “The strait must remain open—it will remain open under any circumstances, and it needs to remain open.”
The U.S. and Iran are still negotiating the wording of the agreement.
According to reports from multiple media outlets including China Central Television (CCTV), Rubio confirmed that representatives from the United States and Iran held talks in Qatar, but he characterized these discussions as purely technical drafting work rather than negotiations on the verge of reaching an agreement.
He revealed that the key issue in current negotiations remains the drafting of an initial framework document, with both sides repeatedly refining its wording details—a process that may take several more days to resolve.
On Monday, Brent crude prices plummeted by 7%, driven by market optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran deal. Earlier, President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were progressing smoothly. Meanwhile, reports emerged that the two sides had reached an understanding regarding the unfreezing of assets.
However, Rubio offered a more cautious assessment of the U.S.-Iran talks, noting that the two sides had engaged in extensive back-and-forth discussions over specific wording and offering no indication that core issues had been resolved—suggesting a significant gap between market optimism and diplomatic reality.
Just hours before Rubio’s remarks, explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, as well as near Sirik and Jask in the Persian Gulf. Subsequently, U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces had conducted “defensive” strikes against Iranian missile launch sites in southern Iran and vessels attempting to lay naval mines.
Rubio’s statement further underscored that Washington’s tolerance for any closure of the Strait of Hormuz is limited—and that the timeframe for action is measured in days, not weeks.
“The strait will be open regardless.”
Media analysis suggests that Rubio’s statement—“The strait will be open regardless”—is the clearest indication to date that the United States is prepared to use military force to reopen the waterway if diplomatic efforts fail.
This phrasing has embedded a significant geopolitical risk premium into international oil prices, even though markets had previously begun pricing in the possibility of an agreement.
Moreover, Rubio acknowledged that negotiators from both sides are still haggling over the wording of a preliminary document and remain far from reaching a final agreement, indicating that the timeline for a return to normal supply conditions in the international oil market may be longer than market forecasts suggest.
Currently, energy markets must account for two scenarios simultaneously: one in which both parties successfully negotiate the reopening of the strait—a development that could occur within days—and another in which negotiations collapse and tensions escalate, prompting the United States to consider military action to force the strait open, albeit with associated risks of supply disruptions.
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