U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations stalled over the weekend amid back-and-forth revisions—Trump significantly altered the draft agreement, with core disagreements centering on the disposition of enriched uranium and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s foreign minister stated, 'Everything is speculation.'
Meanwhile, Israel announced an expansion of its military operations in Lebanon, further complicating the prospects for a ceasefire. In response, oil prices rebounded on Monday, with Brent crude rising to around $93 per barrel and WTI climbing nearly 3%.
Negotiations have stalled, and fighting has not ceased—the Middle East is tense on two fronts this weekend.
U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered their most difficult phase. Both sides exchanged revised proposals throughout the weekend, but according to media reports, it remains unclear whether substantive progress has been made. Meanwhile, as reported by China Central Television (CCTV), Israel announced an expansion of its military operations in Lebanon, shattering an already fragile ceasefire.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in an interview broadcast by Iranian media on the evening of May 31 that current discussions about the progress of negotiations with the U.S. are speculative, and no judgment should be made about the process until clear results are achieved. Araghchi said that dialogue and information exchanges between Iran and the United States are ongoing, and most circulating claims are speculative in nature. 'Until matters are definitively settled, they should not be accorded excessive importance,' he added.
Markets reacted swiftly. In early Monday trading, Brent crude prices climbed to approximately $93 per barrel—having just fallen on Friday to their lowest level since mid-April; WTI crude rose nearly 3%, settling at $89.8 per barrel; and the U.S. dollar strengthened broadly against G10 currencies.
Drafts go back and forth—where exactly is the negotiation stuck?
The core logic of these negotiations is straightforward: both the U.S. and Iran are attempting to reach an agreement whereby halting military operations would be exchanged for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
But the devil is in the details.
According to reports, after reviewing a draft agreement finalized by negotiators with Iran during a White House intelligence briefing last Friday, Trump demanded revisions to multiple provisions. His primary concerns centered on two issues: first, the specific arrangements for handling Iran’s enriched uranium, including how the U.S. would gain access to relevant nuclear materials and the associated timeline; and second, the precise wording regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As reported by China Central Television (CCTV), several U.S. officials revealed that Trump has substantially revised and tightened the terms of the memorandum of understanding, and the updated version has been sent to Iran for review. A White House official stated that Trump 'will only sign an agreement that benefits the United States, meets his red lines, and ensures Iran can never acquire nuclear weapons.'
Iran has not remained idle either. According to Iran’s state-run television on Saturday, a new clause in the revised draft grants Iran 'exclusive authority' over determining the nature of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz—a provision the U.S. is almost certain to reject.
The draft also stated that the United States pledged to directly transfer $12 billion in frozen funds to Iranian banks within 60 days, without imposing any conditions. However, Iran’s state-run television simultaneously emphasized that the document is an 'informal' draft and has not yet been 'finalized.' The White House declined to comment on the matter.
Currently, the negotiations rely on intermediaries, including Pakistan, to relay messages. Previously, a senior government official revealed that Iranian negotiators are 'in a cave, not using email,' resulting in significant delays in communication. Delivering revised texts directly to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, remains a major challenge in itself.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke calmly during an interview with Iranian media on the evening of May 31. According to Xinhua News Agency, he stated that dialogue and exchanges of information between Iran and the United States are ongoing, adding, 'Until matters are finalized, they should not be accorded excessive importance.'
Tasnim News Agency, a semi-official outlet closely aligned with Iran, directly highlighted the worst-case scenario on Sunday: both sides might ultimately reject each other’s proposed revisions, causing the deal to collapse.
Why is Trump in such a hurry to negotiate?
On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Bessent made a weighty statement during a Fox News program: 'For the first time in 47 years, Iranians are willing to discuss not possessing nuclear weapons. It is President Trump who has brought this issue to the negotiating table for the first time.'
Trump’s former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, offered a different interpretation on Bloomberg Television, directly exposing the political logic behind the negotiations:
‘This deal is ultimately about gasoline prices at American gas stations,’ Bolton said. ‘Trump is clearly concerned about the price levels consumers are paying, the impact on inflation, and the implications for the November election. But this is not a deal that genuinely ends the conflict in a way that satisfies the United States.’
Israeli Prime Minister Says He Has Ordered IDF to Expand Military Operations in Lebanon
Even as U.S.-Iran negotiations stall, Israel is accelerating its military operations in Lebanon.
According to CCTV News, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on May 31 local time that he had instructed the Israeli military to expand its military operations in Lebanon. After crossing the Litani River in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces continued advancing northward in an attempt to seize strategic high ground and encircle Nabatieh.
Reports indicated that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced earlier on Sunday that Israeli forces had raised the Israeli flag at Beaufort Castle, a historic site. The Israeli military stated that Hezbollah fired over 300 projectiles at Israeli troops stationed in Lebanon and northern Israel over the weekend. This marks Israel's largest-scale 'operation' in Lebanon in 25 years.
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Israel's latest actions on social media and called for a ceasefire: 'There is no justification whatsoever for the significant escalation currently taking place in southern Lebanon.'
Notably, Israel is not a party to the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement, it remains uncertain whether Israel will halt its military operations in Lebanon.
U.S. military base in Kuwait attacked; drones destroyed
The situation is escalating beyond this point.
According to media reports citing a directly informed source, Iran recently launched a ballistic missile at a U.S. military base in Kuwait. The missile was intercepted, but debris injured approximately five people, including contractors and active-duty personnel. The attack also severely damaged two MQ-9 Reaper drones—one was destroyed and the other heavily damaged—each valued at around $30 million. U.S. Central Command did not respond to requests for comment.
Meanwhile, on Friday, the U.S. Navy fired Hellfire missiles at a vessel flying the Gambian flag en route to an Iranian port, striking its engine room and disabling the ship. U.S. Central Command stated on social media that the vessel’s crew had failed to stop despite receiving more than 20 warnings.
How is the market reacting?
Markets had already partially priced in expectations of a U.S.-Iran deal—the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, and oil prices retreated from recent highs to April lows, triggering a relief-driven rally across global bond markets.
But news over the weekend disrupted the rhythm.
Kyle Rodda, Senior Analyst at Capital.com, stated: 'U.S.-Iran negotiations remain an unresolved concern and a potential source of future volatility. The risk is that market prices could be misled by the Trump administration’s messaging suggesting a deal is imminent, but so far, Iran has maintained a cautious stance.'
Patrik Lang, Chief Investment Strategist at Geneva-based Global Gate Asset Management, was relatively optimistic: 'There may still be further setbacks, but the market has already priced in expectations for an Iran deal. Once the agreement is announced, I do not anticipate significant market volatility, except possibly a decline in oil prices.'
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