The most spectacular IPO roadshow in Wall Street history is now underway: 23 banks are jointly backing the offering, Bank of America illuminated its headquarters to simulate a rocket launch, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon personally appeared in support, and Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX’s AI-related revenue will surge 100-fold by 2030 to $322 billion, underpinning a $1.8 trillion valuation. However, realities such as Grok's underwhelming market performance and idle data centers being leased to competitors cast a shadow of concern over this starry-eyed dream-making spectacle.
Wall Street is endorsing, with unprecedented scale and enthusiasm, the $Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX.US)$ largest IPO in history.
This Thursday, Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley each held major client roadshow events. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen shuttled tirelessly among the investment banks, personally pitching the deal to thousands of affluent investors.
Meanwhile, research teams at Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI released highly aggressive forecast reports, predicting that SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division will see its revenue grow approximately 100-fold by around 2030, supporting a target valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion for the company. SpaceX has set its IPO price at $135 per share, aiming to raise approximately $74.4 billion. The offering is expected to be formally priced on June 11 and will begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "SPCX."
The sheer scale of this IPO and the intensity of participation have captured Wall Street’s full attention. According to The New York Times, a total of 23 banks and broker-dealers are involved in the IPO’s sales effort, with underwriting fees alone projected to exceed $500 million. Analysts note that major investment banks must not only ensure SpaceX’s listing is a resounding success but also lay the groundwork and build confidence ahead of two anticipated mega-IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Top investment bankers personally lead roadshows, creating scenes akin to a "launch party"
According to Reuters, Bank of America kicked off the day by decorating the lobby of its Midtown Manhattan headquarters with SpaceX rockets and related imagery, hosting an exclusive event for wealth management clients. Co-President Jim DeMare will personally moderate a discussion with Shotwell and Johnsen. The bank also plans to illuminate the spire atop its building that evening to simulate the visual effect of a rocket launch. Its private bank and Merrill Lynch together invited over 5,000 clients to the "launch party," which will be broadcast live to offices across the United States.
JPMorgan hosted an even grander event at its newly completed copper-toned headquarters. According to The New York Times, CEO Jamie Dimon attended personally to support investors, joined on stage by Mary C. Erdoes, head of Asset & Wealth Management. SpaceX rocket launch videos played continuously on wide-format screens, and the phrase "Go for Launch" was projected onto the multi-story-high walls of the lobby. The event is expected to draw more than 2,500 clients in person and will be streamed simultaneously to 90 branches across 26 U.S. states—marking the largest event of its kind in JPMorgan’s history.
Morgan Stanley plans to hold a dedicated wealth management client event next Monday, where SpaceX executives will appear alongside Kate Claassen, lead IPO underwriter, and Jed Finn, head of wealth management. Although Goldman Sachs did not organize a client event of comparable scale, it reportedly displayed SpaceX rocket models in two lobbies at its Lower Manhattan headquarters as a show of support for the listing.
Projected 100-fold AI revenue growth underpins trillion-dollar valuation thesis
Wall Street has also demonstrated remarkable consensus in its optimism about SpaceX’s future. Goldman Sachs’ research team forecasts that SpaceX’s total revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI division revenue surging from $3.2 billion in 2025 to approximately $322 billion—a roughly 100-fold increase. Goldman Sachs also projects that the company’s adjusted EBITDA will jump from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion by 2030, and that it will generate positive free cash flow exceeding $72 billion in 2031, compared to negative free cash flow of $13.8 billion in 2025.
Evercore ISI’s forecast is equally aggressive. The firm projects that SpaceX’s AI segment will generate $755 billion in revenue by 2031, with total company revenue surpassing $1 trillion by then. Evercore also forecasts that the AI business’s share of total revenue will surge from less than one-fifth currently to 74% by 2031, while the rocket business’s share will decline from over 20% today to approximately 1%.
Both firms project that connectivity revenue—primarily driven by Starlink satellite internet services—will grow from approximately $11.4 billion last year to over $140 billion by 2030; meanwhile, rocket division revenue is expected to rise more modestly, from $4.1 billion last year to around $8 billion by 2030.
High-growth assumptions face real-world challenges
Despite the encouraging projections, some underlying assumptions are highly contentious. The aforementioned AI growth forecasts hinge on SpaceX’s Grok series of models outpacing and ultimately surpassing more established competitors such as Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI in critical domains including programming, cybersecurity, AI agents, and chatbots.
In reality, however, SpaceX’s AI division—formerly xAI—faces significant headwinds: Elon Musk has ousted all ten co-founders within two years, resulting in persistent internal turmoil; the Grok model has underperformed in the market, with consumer and enterprise subscription numbers far below the scale needed to support high revenue; and even the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee, with a capacity of 300 megawatts, sits partially idle due to insufficient market adoption of Grok, forcing Musk to lease part of it to rival Anthropic.
SpaceX also deviated from standard practice by omitting historical quarterly financial data in its IPO registration filing. Matt Kennedy, Senior IPO Market Strategist at Renaissance Capital, noted that the absence of detailed quarterly figures means investors should primarily evaluate the company from a long-term perspective. Goldman Sachs’ valuation model assumes a $26.5 trillion addressable market for SpaceX’s AI business—far exceeding the combined $2 trillion market size for Starlink and space-related operations—an assumption that is itself notably bold.
Editor/KOKO