From oversubscription to expectations of index inclusion, interest in SpaceX continues to rise ahead of its IPO. MSCI’s fast-track inclusion mechanism could bring new passive inflows, while market participants believe concerns that SpaceX’s listing signals a peak in the AI-driven bull market are significantly overstated.
With only a few days remaining until its June 12 listing, SpaceX has received another boost.
MSCI confirmed on Monday that it will continue to apply its fast-track inclusion rule for large IPOs. This means SpaceX (SPCX.O), which is set to list on Nasdaq, could be added to the MSCI Global Standard Indexes approximately 10 trading days after its debut.
Given that trillions of dollars in global assets track MSCI indexes, passive funds linked to these benchmarks will be required to purchase SpaceX shares once inclusion is finalized. Additionally, future entry into the Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell index families could attract further capital inflows.
SpaceX’s IPO plans to offer 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion and implying a valuation of about $1.8 trillion. Upon successful listing, its market capitalization would rank among the top ten U.S. public companies. However, only around 7% of shares will be freely tradable at listing, resulting in relatively limited market supply.
Under MSCI’s current rules, SpaceX is expected to easily meet both the market capitalization and free-float requirements, thereby qualifying for fast-track inclusion.
This outcome contrasts with S&P Global, which recently decided to maintain its existing rules unchanged, meaning SpaceX will not be eligible for rapid inclusion in the S&P 500. S&P requires companies to meet criteria including sustained profitability; SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, despite a 33% year-over-year increase in revenue to $18.67 billion.
Previously, both Nasdaq and FTSE Russell adjusted their rules to facilitate faster index inclusion for large newly listed companies like SpaceX.
Demand remains exceptionally strong. According to informed sources, SpaceX’s IPO has already received subscription interest far exceeding the offering size, with multiple institutional investors submitting orders each exceeding $10 billion—total demand significantly outpacing the actual issuance volume.
The underwriting syndicate plans to stop accepting institutional orders at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, June 10 (4:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday) to assess demand and provide final pricing recommendations to the company. The IPO will be priced on June 11 and officially begin trading on June 12.
The roadshow is also entering its final phase. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley will host meetings in its New York headquarters between SpaceX management and approximately 300 institutional investors, attended by President Gwynne Shotwell and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen.
If SpaceX achieves its $75 billion fundraising target, it will surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record set in 2019, becoming the largest initial public offering in global history.
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, disagrees with market concerns that a mega-IPO would drain liquidity. Appearing on CNBC’s 'Power Lunch,' he stated that fears that SpaceX’s listing would signal a peak in the AI-driven bull market are significantly overstated.
“There is still $7 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter the market,” he said,
“High-net-worth clients hold substantial cash reserves available for subscribing to this IPO, so the market can not only absorb this offering but may also perform well overall following its completion.”
However, he believes market volatility could still intensify around the time of SpaceX’s official listing.
Regarding the risk of lock-up expirations, Tom Lee remains optimistic. He noted that AI companies, including SpaceX, will continue needing access to capital markets for future fundraising and therefore have strong incentives to maintain stable disclosure practices and positive investor relations, making large-scale sell-offs unlikely.
To further strengthen its AI narrative, SpaceX recently disclosed a new revenue stream. Last week, the company announced a cloud computing services agreement with Google, under which Google’s Gemini model will pay SpaceX $920 million per month through 2029. Previously, SpaceX had also revealed a similar partnership with Anthropic.
Editor/melody