① SpaceX's 'IPO of the century' is set for June 12, as market speculation intensifies over a potential merger with Tesla.
② Analyst Emmanuel Rosner forecasts the merger could be completed as early as mid-2027 and warns that Tesla needs to 'deliver tangible results on its robotaxi and Optimus projects to provide upward momentum for its share price.'
SpaceX's 'IPO of the century (initial public offering)' will make its highly anticipated debut this Friday (June 12). As the market questions SpaceX's valuation, speculation on Wall Street about a possible merger with another Musk-led company—Tesla—has been growing increasingly intense.
So,$Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX.US)$what could the listing mean for$Tesla (TSLA.US)$investors?
In a report, Emmanuel Rosner, an analyst at market research firm Wolfe Research, noted that based on discussions with institutional investors, “the likelihood of an eventual merger between SpaceX and Tesla has gradually become a mainstream view, with some institutional investors now citing it as a primary reason for holding Tesla shares.”
Peter Diamandis, an early investor in SpaceX, stated that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla after the IPO is inevitable—the only question is when it will happen, as Musk would seek to consolidate control over his companies.
Rosner outlined three key drivers behind a potential merger:
First, Musk is consolidating his voting control; assuming an all-stock transaction, his voting power in the combined entity would significantly exceed 50%.
Second, Tesla holds substantial growth potential in artificial intelligence (AI), contributing real-world datasets, while SpaceX continues to enhance its computational capabilities.
Finally, he emphasized the importance of securing stronger capital resources.
However, Wolfe Research also highlighted several significant obstacles, including the need to pay a substantial premium, potential opposition from other SpaceX shareholders, and regulatory complexities arising from Tesla’s extensive international operations.
Rosner stated that a potential merger 'would not be possible until at least mid-2027.'
He also noted that market expectations surrounding the merger could provide downside support for Tesla’s share price and warned that Tesla needs to 'deliver tangible results on robotaxis and the Optimus project to generate upward momentum for its stock.'
Rosner further pointed out that although core business fundamentals appear to be improving, they account for only a small portion of Tesla’s valuation. The company indicated that a larger share is tied to investor confidence in robotaxis, humanoid robots, and auxiliary AI services—areas where 'the growth trajectory is flatter than previously anticipated.'
Some analysts on Wall Street also believe that SpaceX’s AI prospects are closely linked to Tesla.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, previously noted that Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI in January this year has been converted into SpaceX shares, reflecting increasingly tight capital ties between the two companies.
He forecasts that the probability of an operational merger between SpaceX and Tesla by the end of 2027 exceeds 80%, with Musk aiming to integrate the two companies to build an AI ecosystem capable of leading the next technological revolution.
Want to select stocks or get a stock diagnosis? Curious about the opportunities and risks in your portfolio? For all your investment questions,Just ask Futubull AI!
Editor/melody