OpenAI has secretly filed an IPO application, joining SpaceX and Anthropic to form a $3.6 trillion IPO pipeline, accounting for approximately 10% of the Nasdaq's total market capitalization.
The concentrated entry of these three giants will intensify concentration risk in U.S. equities and extend their interlinked 'circular capital structure' from private markets into public markets. Analysts warn that while AI-related capital moats have become formidable barriers, the underlying technology remains in the early stages of engineering implementation, and markets should remain vigilant against valuation bubbles and volatility risks.
OpenAI has secretly filed an IPO application, joining SpaceX and Anthropic to form an AI IPO candidate pipeline with a combined valuation approaching $3.6 trillion—roughly 10% of the Nasdaq’s total market capitalization—adding further concentration pressure to an index already heavily weighted toward a few tech leaders.
OpenAI announced on Monday that it has confidentially submitted an IPO filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Anthropic revealed last week that it had completed a confidential IPO filing and raised fresh capital at a $965 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. SpaceX plans to go public this week at an estimated valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion, which would immediately place it among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies.
The combined valuation of the three companies totals approximately $3.6 trillion, or about 10% of the Nasdaq’s total market capitalization. The top ten constituents of the Nasdaq already account for over 40% of its total market weight; if all these AI giants list publicly, they will further exacerbate index concentration and amplify volatility risks in the technology sector. Meanwhile, the intricate web of capital linkages among leading AI firms is extending from private markets into public markets, prompting concerns among some market participants about whether current valuations contain bubble-like elements.
This wave of AI IPOs will profoundly influence asset allocation strategies of passive funds and reshape global investors’ risk exposure to the technology sector. Despite massive capital inflows, the commercialization of AI technologies remains in its early stages, and significant uncertainty persists regarding these companies’ long-term profitability and value creation pathways.
The combined valuation of the three AI giants approaches $3.6 trillion.
OpenAI announced on Monday that it has confidentially filed an IPO application, becoming the third major AI company—after SpaceX and Anthropic—to formally initiate IPO preparations. In terms of valuation, SpaceX is valued at approximately $1.8 trillion, Anthropic at around $965 billion, and OpenAI at roughly $852 billion, totaling about $3.6 trillion. OpenAI’s valuation stems from a financing round completed in March of this year, during which it raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation—a single-round fundraising amount exceeding SpaceX’s entire IPO valuation.
According to Bloomberg, OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare for its listing, with a potential IPO window as early as this fall. The company stated that the timing has not yet been finalized: "It may still take some time, as certain initiatives are easier to advance as a private company. However, this involves complex trade-offs, and the filing gives us the option to move faster when conditions are optimal." Reports also indicate that OpenAI plans to offer employees a tender offer for shares several weeks before the official listing to provide liquidity. A company spokesperson declined to comment on this matter.
Nasdaq concentration risk intensifies as markets sound alarm over circular capital structures
Songyee Yoon, Founder and Managing Partner of Principal Venture Partners, noted in a Bloomberg interview on the 10th that the $3.6 trillion AI IPO pipeline accounts for roughly 10% of Nasdaq’s total market capitalization, while the index’s top ten constituents already represent over 40% of its market cap weighting. She stated that adding these AI companies would significantly increase concentration in the Nasdaq, “further exposing it to cyclical risks and volatility inherent in the technology market.”
Yoon also pointed out that passive fund assets continue to grow, while these AI giants maintain deep capital interlinkages. The intricate dependencies in computing power and mutual investment arrangements among leading AI firms are gradually extending from private markets into public markets, creating a “circular trading” dynamic. “This is one of the reasons people believe the current AI market contains elements of a bubble.”
This concern is not limited to the U.S. market alone. Yoon noted that the dominant influence of U.S. tech giants over global supply chains has driven similar investor enthusiasm toward semiconductor and infrastructure companies worldwide, thereby supporting elevated valuations in other markets as well.
Yoon believes there is a deeper commercial logic behind this wave of密集 listings by AI giants: the ability to raise capital at scale has itself become a core component of their service offerings and business models, creating structural barriers for new entrants. “The capital moats built around these companies have become part of their business identity—one of the barriers deterring newcomers and also a key driver behind this IPO frenzy.”
AI companies are currently racing to raise tens of billions of dollars to purchase chips, build data centers, and develop more advanced AI systems. According to reports, OpenAI informed investors in February that it plans to invest approximately $600 billion cumulatively in AI infrastructure by 2030.
Technology is still in its early stages; greater investment opportunities lie in the application layer of AI.
Yoon stated that AI is a real technology that has already demonstrated immense potential during its “technology showcase phase,” but significant work remains before it achieves engineering maturity, cost optimization, and scalable deployment. “From both a technological and infrastructural standpoint, we are far from reaching an end state—there is still substantial room for improvement.” She added that such improvements could come either from existing AI giants or from emerging companies focused on solving specific problems.
Drawing an analogy with the aviation industry, Yoon explained the distribution logic of AI investment opportunities: only a handful of companies can build jet engines, yet the bulk of economic value is generated across the broader aviation ecosystem—including aircraft manufacturing, airline operations, and ancillary services. “We’ve discovered a remarkable ‘engine technology’ with the potential to spawn entirely new business models. But the vast array of businesses and applications built on top of it remain to be developed—and where ultimate value will be created, captured, and consolidated is still unknown.”
Editor/melody