Overview of Key Schedules for the New Week
Fed Chair Waller's debut looms, with markets watching for three potential hawkish signals
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday Beijing time, marking the first such meeting under new Chair Waller.Federal Open Market CommitteeAccording to CME Group’s 'FedWatch Tool,' the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in June stands at 98.5%. The key focus of this meeting centers on adjustments to policy guidance, the new chair’s approach, and institutional reforms.
On the policy signaling front, markets are closely watching whether the following three hawkish signals materialize:
First is whether the phrase “leaning toward cutting rates next” in the previous policy statement will be removed. Eliminating this language would signal that the Fed has formally abandoned its prior dovish bias and shifted toward a policy framework centered squarely on combating inflation.
Second is the shift in the dot plot. The March dot plot indicated one rate cut remained likely this year, but the current projection is expected to pivot toward a stable-rate outlook—and may even show a majority of officials anticipating rate hikes.
Third is the tilt in risk preferences. If officials express significantly heightened concerns about inflation while downplaying labor market risks, it could pave the way for future rate hikes.
Beyond shifts in policy direction, this meeting serves as a de facto ‘interview’ for Waller’s policy stance. Markets will scrutinize his statements to assess the new chair’s style and independence. Should Waller explicitly state during the press conference that 'monetary policy is entirely data-dependent and free from external interference'—while leaving the door open to potential rate hikes—it would alleviate concerns about policy independence and likely support the U.S. dollar. Conversely, if he emphasizes labor market pressures while sidestepping inflation, markets would likely interpret this as unexpectedly dovish.
The broader impact of this meeting lies in the potential communication reforms Waller may initiate. Even before taking office, Waller repeatedly criticized the Fed’s existing communication framework, openly rejecting excessive forward guidance and arguing that the dot plot often misleads market expectations. He has also contended that frequent chair press conferences amplify unnecessary market volatility. Market participants widely speculate that Waller could launch gradual reforms as early as his first meeting—such as significantly shortening the length of FOMC policy statements, reducing the frequency of press conferences, and potentially diminishing the role of the dot plot in policy communications.
Multiple sources indicate the U.S. and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding
On the 14th, Iranian sources told Xinhua News Agency reporters that Pakistan would chair a video conference attended by representatives from both Iran and the United States, who would sign an agreement. According to the Iranian Fars News Agency, citing unnamed sources, Tehran is still reviewing its final decision on the framework agreement reached with the United States. U.S. and Pakistani leaders had previously anticipated that the framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict—now in its fourth month—would be signed on the 14th. However, Iranian officials have questioned this timeline, while hardline protesters within Iran have publicly voiced their opposition.
On the 13th, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that the United States and Iran are scheduled to sign an agreement on the 14th, and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened immediately after the signing. Trump stated that Iran no longer seeks to possess nuclear weapons and will not acquire them through purchase, indigenous development, or any other means. Once the situation stabilizes, the United States will seize an appropriate opportunity to remove the enriched uranium 'buried' underground—either within Iran or on U.S. soil—and dilute and destroy it.
Risk appetite improved amid reports from U.S. officials indicating progress toward a potential agreement with Iran. Markets are hopeful that such an accord could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ease pressure on global energy markets, helping to lift equities and other risk-sensitive assets.
The G7 summit is being held in France, with executives from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google scheduled to attend.
The 52nd G7 summit will take place in Évian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17, with France serving as the rotating presidency. Market participants expect G7 leaders to urge U.S. President Trump to support a European-led mission to clear naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a list released by the French Presidency, Sam Altman of OpenAI, Demis Hassabis of Google, and Dario Amodei of Anthropic are all slated to attend. All three companies have confirmed their participation in the G7 summit. Leaders from participating countries have previously expressed interest in learning about the latest advancements in artificial intelligence and the potential opportunities and risks it presents. A spokesperson for OpenAI said the company plans to discuss these topics at the G7 summit but declined to provide specific details. Anthropic and Google also confirmed their executives’ attendance but did not elaborate further on their plans.
U.S. retail sales data for May will be released, alongside China’s May data on social consumption, industrial output, housing prices, and other indicators.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, U.S. retail sales for May (month-over-month) will be released on Wednesday. If the data further confirms economic resilience, it could bolster the credibility of market bets on a hawkish Fed stance. According to the latest Retail Monitor survey jointly released by CNBC and the National Retail Federation (NRF)—often used as a leading indicator ahead of official data—U.S. retail sales rose again on a month-over-month basis in May. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer spending in the United States remains robust, continuing to serve as a key pillar of economic activity.
On June 16, China will release its May data on total retail sales of consumer goods, industrial value-added, real estate development investment, and housing prices for 70 major cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. that day to brief the public on the nation’s economic performance in May. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities expects that elevated oil prices and high inflation have dampened domestic consumer demand, potentially leading to a slowdown in both retail sales growth and industrial output growth in May.
Japan will release its May CPI data on June 19. According to Bloomberg Economics, headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 1.6% year-on-year from April’s 1.4%, driven by rising fresh food prices and the removal of energy subsidies, while the core-core measure is forecast to remain elevated at 1.9%.
‘Super Central Bank Week’ is underway: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, while the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to hold rates steady.
‘Super Central Bank Week’ has arrived, with the Bank of Japan holding its monetary policy meeting on June 15–16. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the meeting due to a liver cyst infection—the first time since 1998 that a BOJ governor has been absent. Market expectations for a rate hike at this meeting are as high as 88%, and the governor’s absence is not expected to affect the outcome. The Bank of Japan also announced that Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will chair the post-meeting press conference on June 16 regarding the interest rate decision.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, following the Bank of Japan. It is widely expected to hold the official cash rate steady at 4.35%, as policymakers await further data on the economic impact of the conflict in Iran.
The Bank of England will release its interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday. Given weak economic fundamentals, traders largely expect the central bank to remain on hold. Investors will look for signals on whether policymakers are inclined to raise rates sooner.
Additionally, interest rate decisions will be announced by the central banks of Brazil, Ukraine, the Philippines, Indonesia, Switzerland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden.
U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day on Friday due to Juneteenth, and Hong Kong markets will also be closed the same day for the Dragon Boat Festival.
On Friday, June 19, U.S. markets including the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for Juneteenth. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME Group will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20.
Due to the Dragon Boat Festival, China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, Beijing Stock Exchange, domesticfutures exchange,exchanges, Hong Kong Exchange, and Taiwan Stock Exchange are closed.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
Monday (June 15)
Key event: G7 Summit opens
On the economic data front, the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for June, U.S. industrial production for May (month-over-month), and the NAHB Housing Market Index for June will be released.
20:30 – New York Fed Manufacturing Index for June (U.S.)
21:15 – U.S. Industrial Production MoM for May
22:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index for June (U.S.)
On the events front, the 52nd G7 Summit will be held in Évian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17.
On the earnings front, U.S. stocks $Quantum (QMCO.US)$ will release earnings after market close.
In initial public offerings, Hong Kong-listed $LIULIUMEI (06658.HK)$ Officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Tuesday, June 16
Keywords: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, China's May retail sales and industrial production data
On the economic data front, China will release a batch of key indicators for May, including retail sales, industrial production, and the 70-city home price index; the U.S. will release May housing starts (annualized) and the May import price index.
09:30 – National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
10:00 — Year-to-date (January–May) national real estate development investment in China; year-on-year industrial added value of designated-size enterprises in China for May; year-on-year total retail sales of consumer goods in China for May
20:30 — Annualized total housing starts in the U.S. for May; total building permits in the U.S. for May; month-over-month import price index in the U.S. for May
On the events front, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida at 14:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Governor Michele Bullock at 13:30.
Wednesday (June 17)
Key indicator: U.S. retail sales for May
On the economic data front, the U.S. will release retail sales for May and the month-over-month pending home sales index for May.
20:30 — Month-over-month U.S. retail sales for May
22:00 — Month-over-month U.S. business inventories for April; month-over-month pending home sales index in the U.S. for May
22:30 — EIA crude oil inventories in the U.S. for the week ending June 12
Earnings reports: $Jabil (JBL.US)$、 $CarMax (KMX.US)$ will release earnings before the U.S. market opens.
Thursday, June 18
Key events: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Waller's debut
On the economic data front, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index for May, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be released.
20:30: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June
22:00: U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index for May
On the event front, at 02:00, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; at 02:30, newly appointed Fed Chair Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference.
Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 today.
Regarding financial results,$Accenture (ACN.US)$、 $The Kroger Co. (KR.US)$ will release earnings before the U.S. market opens.
In initial public offerings, Hong Kong-listed $HQVT (01392.HK)$ will commence grey market trading.
Friday, June 19
Key term: Hong Kong and U.S. markets closed
Markets closed: In observance of Juneteenth, the New York Stock Exchange was closed for the day. CME Group’s futures contracts for precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity indices, and U.S. Treasury securities ceased trading early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20.
Markets in mainland China—including the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges and domestic futures exchanges—as well as the Hong Kong Exchange and the Taiwan Stock Exchange will be closed for the Dragon Boat Festival.
Wishing fellow investors a successful week ahead!
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