Macroeconomic Highlights
The United States and Iran simultaneously announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on a ceasefire.
Trump authorized the Strait of Hormuz to be 'freely open' and lifted the naval blockade, with the formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani stated that 'the gains achieved far exceed the commitments made,' and that 60-day nuclear negotiations will commence once the U.S. fulfills its obligations. Meanwhile, Israel conducted an airstrike on Beirut one hour before the agreement was signed, prompting Trump to publicly denounce Netanyahu as 'lacking judgment.'
South Korean and Japanese stock indices opened higher, with the KOSPI surging 5%.
On Monday, June 15, the KOSPI opened up 425.23 points, or 5.23%, at 8,548.85. The Nikkei 225 opened up 858.13 points, or 1.30%, at 66,878.17 on the same day.
Fable 5 and Mythos 5 were delisted just four days after launch after being placed under U.S. export controls; Anthropic complied but expressed disagreement.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick sent a letter to Anthropic placing its two leading AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, under export controls, restricting access by foreign nationals both overseas and within the U.S., citing risks related to jailbreaking. Although Anthropic complied with the order to remove the models, it publicly opposed the move, stating that the vulnerabilities were minor and common across the industry, and warned that such standards would stall the deployment of cutting-edge models.
How high would U.S. Treasury yields need to rise to pose a real threat to U.S. equities? Goldman Sachs: when the 10-year yield hits 5%.
Against the backdrop of sustained AI-driven momentum lifting U.S. equities, the bond market is increasingly emerging as a source of risk drawing Wall Street’s attention. With Federal Reserve Chair Waller set to preside over his first FOMC meeting since taking office, investors are repeatedly asking the same question: How high must U.S. Treasury yields rise before they pose a genuine threat to the current equity rally?
Tony Pasquariello, head of trading at Goldman Sachs, noted that historical experience suggests the threshold is around a 5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. He observed that one of the most frequently cited client concerns recently is whether long-term Treasury yields could begin to weigh on equity valuations. In response to this concern, Goldman Sachs has developed an empirical framework grounded in historical data.
The framework indicates that when the 10-year Treasury yield experiences a one-month surge equivalent to a 'two-standard-deviation' move, equities typically face systematic valuation pressure. Under current market conditions, this critical threshold is approximately 5%.
This 5% ‘red line’ has not yet been breached. Although the bond market has recently seen heightened volatility and the interest rate path is undergoing repricing, Goldman Sachs believes U.S. equities have not yet entered a phase of materially rate-driven risk. However, as market volatility rises, the bond market is gradually becoming a key variable influencing U.S. equities in the second half of the year.
U.S. Stock Market Update
All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.50%.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ It closed up 19% on its first day of trading, reaching a total market capitalization of USD 2.1 trillion with a trading volume of USD 80 billion.
$Semiconductors (LIST2015.US)$ Most stocks advanced, with ARM up over 11%, Seagate Technology rising more than 7%, Intel and Western Digital gaining over 6%, SanDisk climbing over 5%, and AMD and Qualcomm each increasing by more than 4%. However, Micron Technology declined by 1.4%.
$Adobe (ADBE.US)$ It closed down 6.7%, marking its worst single-day performance since March 13.
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ The stock closed up 20%, posting its largest single-day gain since November 2023.
$NASDAQ Golden Dragon China (.HXC.US)$ rose 0.48%, with JD.com gaining nearly 2%, while Alibaba, PDD Holdings, and XPeng saw modest increases.
Stock-specific news
‘Little Buffett’: I don’t invest in AI! My biggest regret is missing early Palantir—costing me tens of billions in potential gains. I’m bullish on commercial real estate that’s been ‘burned’ by the market.
Seth Klarman, Wall Street’s perennial winner and founder of Baupost Group, recently sat down for an in-depth interview with CNBC anchor Sarah Eisen. Known as the 'Boston Buffett,' Klarman—whose fund has posted losses in only five out of its 44 years under his management—issued a stern warning during the conversation about the current AI investment frenzy.
Klarman believes the current tech boom exhibits clear bubble characteristics. Faced with extremely stretched market valuations, value investors should stay true to their principles, avoid 'melting ice cubes' whose intrinsic worth is rapidly eroding, and even willingly hold cash when lacking absolute conviction—waiting patiently for the perfect 'fat pitch' to appear. He also expressed deep concern over America’s soaring debt burden and unpriced geopolitical risks.
SpaceX shares rose 19% on their first day of trading, pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion and making it the sixth-largest company in the United States.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ It surged on its Nasdaq debut on Friday, pushing its market capitalization above USD 2 trillion. The listing proceeded more smoothly than many observers had anticipated. Trading began in the late morning on Friday, and for most of the day, the stock traded 15% to 30% above its Thursday IPO pricing, with relatively limited volatility. It closed at approximately USD 161, up 19%, making the company the sixth-largest in the U.S. by market value. The final settlement price is yet to be confirmed. Trading volume exceeded 500 million shares, with a turnover of roughly USD 80 billion. Market watchers had expressed concerns that a flood of new listings—following an extended period of IPO scarcity—could weigh on market performance, especially with major offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI on the horizon. However, sentiment among investors, ranging from large institutions to retail followers of Elon Musk, was buoyant at the close. “SpaceX not only set a record for fundraising scale but also left other major companies far behind. It’s impressive to add such substantial market value so quickly when the starting valuation was already close to USD 2 trillion,” said Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell.
SpaceX options will begin trading on Tuesday
SpaceX options contracts will commence trading on Tuesday. SpaceX raised USD 75 billion at a valuation of USD 1.765 trillion, with shares opening at USD 150, above the IPO price of USD 135. A spokesperson confirmed that the options will trade on exchanges including the Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) and Nasdaq. These derivatives could see strong demand, as they allow investors to speculate on the stock’s future direction or hedge against downside risk. A surge in options volume could further boost demand for the underlying shares.
Reports indicate that SK Hynix is preparing to provide HBM4E samples to key customers, with the earliest shipments expected this month.
According to industry insiders, SK Hynix is currently preparing to deliver HBM4E samples to its key customers, with the first batch expected to ship as early as this month and no later than next month. Industry analysts note that, given the plan for HBM4E to enter mass production next year, customer testing, validation, and optimization processes must be completed in the second half of this year, making the current sampling timeline extremely tight. (nate)
After Amazon, Meta has also imposed limits on AI usage! When even big tech firms can't afford tokens, should large AI model providers start 'controlling profit margins'?
Meta's spiraling internal AI costs and the tech giants' collective pullback are thrusting a long-overlooked industry contradiction into the spotlight: the commercial logic of AI is being undermined by the very billing crisis it has created.
According to The Information, Meta sent an internal memo this week to approximately 6,000 employees announcing that it would impose limits on token usage and build a real-time tracking platform to curb the exponential growth of internal AI costs.
The memo explicitly stated that Meta’s spending on internal AI usage alone is projected to reach several billion dollars in 2026. This move comes after Meta had previously strongly encouraged employees to integrate AI tools into their daily workflows, only to now be forced into an abrupt reversal.
Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is considering significantly reducing token pricing to attract enterprise customers, while the Silicon Data LLM Token Spending Index—which reflects market willingness to pay for AI—has declined for seven consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since January.
Cathie Wood sells AMD, trims Tesla stake, and takes a $440 million position in SpaceX
Cathie Wood has placed her largest bet on SpaceX.
On June 12, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, disclosed its latest trading activity. On that day, multiple ARK ETFs collectively purchased approximately 3.29 million shares of SpaceX, totaling about USD 443 million.
Notably, this purchase was executed through the ARK Venture Fund, a vehicle dedicated to private market investments. In other words, these shares were acquired via a private placement prior to an IPO, not through secondary market trading.
Simultaneously, ARK significantly reduced its holdings in mature technology stocks such as AMD, Tesla, and Baidu, freeing up capital to concentrate its bets on the space sector. These moves clearly outline ARK’s current asset reallocation strategy.
Following this transaction, SpaceX has become the top holding in the ARK Venture Fund, representing 11.38% of the fund’s net assets (as of May 31 data).
Top 20 by trading value
Hong Kong Market Outlook
On Friday, June 12, southbound capital recorded a net selling of HKD 3.942 billion in Hong Kong-listed stocks.
$YOFC (06869.HK)$、$CNOOC (00883.HK)$、$KB LAMINATES (01888.HK)$ received net purchases of HKD 884 million, HKD 609 million, and HKD 527 million, respectively;
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$KINGBOARD HLDG (00148.HK)$ faced net sales of HKD 38.96 billion, HKD 12.87 billion, and HKD 58.5 million, respectively.
Prominent automaker issues warning: Be prepared for a 15%–20% industry-wide decline this year
Li Bin, Founder and Chairman of Nio, believes China’s automotive industry has entered the most brutal phase of its final stage beginning this year. “In Q1, many still attributed weakness to policy-related front-loading effects from last year, but by April and May, no one in the industry harbors such illusions anymore.”
Today's Focus
Key event: G7 Summit opens
On the economic data front, the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for June, U.S. industrial production for May (month-over-month), and the NAHB Housing Market Index for June will be released.
20:30 – New York Fed Manufacturing Index for June (U.S.)
21:15 – U.S. Industrial Production MoM for May
22:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index for June (U.S.)
On the events front, the 52nd G7 Summit will be held in Évian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17.
On the earnings front, U.S. stocks $Quantum (QMCO.US)$ will release earnings after market close.
In initial public offerings, Hong Kong-listed $LIULIUMEI (06658.HK)$ Officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
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Editor/Lee