① The current MLCC shortage is no longer limited to AI-specific MLCCs; supply for mainstream specifications is also falling short of demand. ② Passive component manufacturers anticipate that this MLCC shortage will persist through 2027 or even into 2028, potentially exceeding the severity of the 2018 passive components shortage. ③ Lead times for high-end passive component manufacturing equipment have already reached 1–1.5 years, and some companies’ equipment scheduled for deployment in the second half of the year originates from purchase orders placed two years ago.
June 15 – According to The Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the MLCC shortage is now spreading beyond high-end products to mid- and low-end segments. Suppliers planning capacity expansions are being constrained by equipment bottlenecks, and the industry expects the shortage to last until 2027 or even 2028.
According to channel sources cited by Taiwan's Commercial Times, the current shortage of MLCCs is no longer limited to AI-specific MLCCs; demand exceeds supply for mainstream specifications as well. $Murata Manufacturing (6981.JP)$ 、 $Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KR)$ In order to accommodate high-end MLCC orders, they have been forced to abandon low-end orders. The latter are primarily used in consumer electronics and account for only 10%–15% of these Japanese and Korean manufacturers’ revenue, yet represent over 40% of unit volumes.
Walsin Technology also noted that the most severely constrained specification is currently 47μF. Due to capacity being squeezed by AI-related high-end orders at Japanese and Korean manufacturers, even widely used high-capacitance components such as 10μF, 22μF, and X5R—commonly found in smartphones and PCs—are now affected.
Under these circumstances, reports suggest that MLCCs could be entering the 'longest shortage in history.'
Yageo Corporation, a leading passive components manufacturer, has already achieved an order-to-shipment ratio exceeding 1.3—surpassing Murata. The company plans to increase capacity utilization, build inventory buffers, and address production bottlenecks to meet the surge in orders. Yageo Chairman Chen Tai Ming stated, based on its current order book, 'The second half of the year will be very busy; price adjustments are expected soon.'
Walsin Technology believes this MLCC shortage will extend into 2027 or even 2028, potentially surpassing the 2018 passive components shortage.
At its recent shareholders’ meeting, Walsin Technology CEO Tseng Ming-Tsan revealed that order momentum has exceeded expectations, with the order-to-shipment ratio rising further from the previous range of approximately 1.2–1.3 to 1.3–1.4. Demand driven by AI-related applications has clearly intensified. Unlike past cycles led by consumer electronics, current demand is underpinned by large enterprises and hyperscale data centers, offering higher visibility and greater sustainability for the overall industry cycle.
To bridge the supply-demand gap, companies across the supply chain have begun ramping up capacity expansions. However, extended lead times for upstream equipment have become a critical bottleneck for passive component manufacturers seeking to scale production.
For instance, Walsin Technology has raised its planned capital expenditure for this year from the initially projected NT$5–10 billion to at least NT$30 billion, earmarked for capacity expansion and equipment procurement. The company disclosed that future capacity plans for thin-film resistors and specialty resistors aim for multiplicative growth, while standard resistors and MLCCs will see annual capacity increases of approximately 10%–15%.
Walsin Technology disclosed that lead times for equipment from Japanese suppliers range from six months to one year, while those from Taiwan-based suppliers are between three and six months. Although the company holds a relatively high priority in equipment suppliers’ order queues, its capacity expansion progress has still been unsatisfactory.
Another passive component manufacturer, Holy Stone Holding Co., Ltd., stated that lead times for high-end passive component equipment have reached 1–1.5 years, and the equipment scheduled for introduction in the second half of this year stems from purchase orders placed two years ago. The company expects its production capacity to increase by 20%–30% this year and by a further 30%–40% by 2027, potentially widening the supply-demand gap next year.
Guosen Securities noted in a report today that spot prices for MLCCs (multilayer ceramic capacitors) have already risen, with widespread price increases across trading and distribution channels. Average prices across all specifications have climbed by 20%–40%, and tight-supply specifications such as ultra-high-capacitance MLCCs (e.g., 47μF+) have seen price hikes exceeding the industry average. Price increases are gradually cascading from high-end to mid- and low-end segments. The current market dynamics resemble those of the 2018 MLCC supercycle; however, unlike 2018—when price surges were broad-based across all product categories and driven by demand from consumer electronics and cryptocurrency mining hardware, prompting Japanese manufacturers to proactively exit mid- and low-end production—the current upswing is fueled by surging AI-related demand. Supply constraints stem from major players reallocating capacity toward high-end products, thereby crowding out consumer-grade output. The global MLCC industry is now entering a new 'volume-and-price' supercycle characterized by stronger demand certainty, higher technical barriers, and greater benefits accruing to manufacturers possessing advanced high-end capabilities.
Editor/KOKO