Macroeconomic Highlights
U.S. Official: U.S.-Iran Agreement Electronically Signed; Formal Signing Scheduled for the 19th
A senior U.S. government official stated on the 15th that the United States and Iran have electronically signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU), but both sides will still hold a formal signing ceremony on the 19th. During a press briefing, the official said that U.S. President Trump and Vice President Vance signed the MoU on behalf of the United States, while Iran’s Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf signed it on behalf of Iran. Vice President Vance, along with Trump’s envoy Witkoff and son-in-law Kushner, is expected to attend the ceremony on the 19th. Vance will subsequently lead the U.S. delegation into the next phase of negotiations.
The official said the memorandum of understanding will be publicly released within the next 24 to 48 hours. However, Trump stated the same day, while attending the G7 summit in France, that the MoU would be published after the formal signing ceremony. U.S. officials indicated that during the technical negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. will maintain its current military deployment in the Middle East; if a final agreement is reached, the U.S. will reduce its military presence in the region.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials stated that maritime traffic through the strait will soon return to normal—“certainly within 30 days, provided Iran commits to clearing all naval mines.” The U.S. “currently knows the location of all mines” and is in fact capable of assisting in their removal.
Trump: Will Release Text of U.S.-Iran Agreement After Signing on Friday; Key Point Is Oil Prices Down, Stock Market Up
During his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open on Friday and that the agreement had already been fully signed (electronically). The text of the Iran agreement will be released after Friday. He emphasized that sanctions on Iran would not be lifted until Iran fulfills its obligations. Trump noted that he himself may or may not participate in the signing ceremony, but U.S. Vice President Vance will take part in the signing. Trump said he hopes to establish a good relationship with Iran and will implement robust oversight. He explicitly stated that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Additionally, Trump expressed a genuine desire to resolve the Lebanon issue. He stressed that what is important is the significant drop in oil prices and the rising stock market.
If the U.S.-Iran Agreement Holds, the Worst of U.S. Inflation May Be Over
According to Bloomberg, if the U.S.-Iran peace agreement holds, it could signal that the most severe war-driven phase of inflation has passed, though the outlook for American consumers and the broader economy remains far from clear. Leslie Falconio, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at UBS, said that with the U.S. and Iran reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is easing, prompting her to push back her forecast for a Fed rate cut. Markets are focused on this week’s ‘Super Central Bank Week,’ during which newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to keep rates unchanged. According to CNBC, President Trump’s confidence in Warsh provides him room to pursue longer-term policy reforms.
Anthropic Holds Talks with Trump Administration Over Controversy Surrounding New AI Models
According to CNBC, a person familiar with the matter revealed that Anthropic’s senior executives met on Monday in Washington, D.C., with Trump administration officials in an effort to resolve the latest round of disputes between the company and the U.S. government. Per a statement released by Anthropic, the company received an export control directive last Friday requiring it to suspend access to its latest AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for “any foreign national, regardless of whether they are located inside or outside the United States.”
To ensure compliance with the directive, Anthropic subsequently disabled all customer access to the aforementioned models. Sources indicated that Anthropic had collaborated with government agencies to test these models prior to release and had obtained deployment authorization. The U.S. government called Anthropic at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time last Friday, demanding it shut down Fable 5 and Mythos 5, and around 5:30 p.m. that same day, Anthropic received formal written instructions to suspend services related to these models. The source noted that prior to receiving the directive last Friday, Anthropic had never been notified of any national security threat.
Will Waller really shrink the balance sheet? Citi: Watch closely whether reserve requirements are lowered.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy stands at a new crossroads. With Kevin Warsh set to chair his first FOMC meeting as the new Fed Chair, market speculation over the Fed’s balance sheet runoff path has intensified. Citi Research believes Warsh is unlikely to make any major statements on balance sheet policy at this meeting, but the medium-term direction is already fairly clear: if balance sheet runoff is to resume, a critical precondition must first be met—reducing the banking system’s demand for reserves.
Citi believes the timing is not yet ripe for Warsh to introduce comprehensive adjustments to balance sheet policy at his first FOMC meeting as chair. In April, during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh stated he would 'work with the Treasury Secretary' to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, though he did not specify a target figure and emphasized that any changes would be 'communicated well in advance' to markets.
Goldman Sachs: The previously straightforward trading logic around AI-themed assets is gradually unraveling, heightening structural vulnerabilities in the market.
Goldman Sachs trader Lee Coppersmith warned that the AI theme is moving beyond the simplistic 'buy everything' phase. Investors are beginning to tap the brakes, primarily due to market correction needs, concerns over leverage and concentrated positions, and a growing focus on opportunities outside AI. Although the overarching AI narrative remains intact, internal divergence is intensifying. Cloud computing providers continue to report high capital expenditures, and the market is now demanding tangible returns—making granular stock selection critical.
U.S. stock market recap
The Nasdaq surged nearly 800 points; Musk gained more in one day than Buffett’s entire net worth.
Overnight and into early morning, as both the U.S. and Iran confirmed they had finalized a memorandum of understanding and were about to sign it, U.S. equity markets joined the global stock rally as its latest participant.
At the close, the S&P 500 rose 1.65% to 7,554.29 points; the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.07% to 26,683.94 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.92% to 51,671.03 points, reaching a record high.
According to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List, Musk’s net worth increased by over $160 billion on Monday, reaching $1.3 trillion—equivalent to the combined net worth of the world’s second- through sixth-richest individuals, or 8.8 times that of Buffett ($146.4 billion). It should be emphasized that Buffett remains the world’s tenth-richest person as of today.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Meanwhile, by market capitalization, as of the close, NVIDIA rose 3.54%, Alphabet-A gained 2.69%, Apple climbed 1.82%, Microsoft advanced 2.31%, Amazon increased 3.13%, SpaceX jumped 19.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor rose 4.12%, Broadcom gained 3.11%, Tesla edged up 1.16%, Meta surged 4.77%, and Micron Technology soared 10.84%.
According to incomplete statistics, $Semiconductor Equipment and Materials (LIST2016.US)$and$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$ Technology stocks led by chipmakers collectively hit record highs, for example, $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ 、 Micron Technology (MU.US) 、 $Seagate Technology (STX.US)$ 、 $Western Digital (WDC.US)$ 、 SanDisk (SNDK.US) 、 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) 、 $Teradyne(TER.US)$ 、 $Lam Research (LRCX.US)$ 、 Applied Materials (AMAT.US) , among others.
$Airline Services (LIST2090.US)$ 、 $Accommodation (LIST2263.US)$ and $Cruise Concept (LIST2447.US)$ rose due to declining fuel prices. $United Airlines (UAL.US)$ 、 $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$and$Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$ all reached record highs, $Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ rose 6.5%.
Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran war-related stocks in sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and aluminum experienced a shift in sentiment. $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)$ fell 4.14%, $Chevron(CVX.US)$ dropped more than 3%, $Alcoa Corporation (AA.US)$ declined 6.7%, $Peabody Energy (BTU.US)$ fell 5%.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.39% on Monday. As of the market close, $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ fell 0.24%, $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ rose 2.44%, $NetEase (NTES.US)$ rose 0.09%, $JD.com(JD.US)$ rose 0.42%, $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ rose 0.85%, $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ rose 2%, Li Auto (LI.US) rose 0.56%, $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ fell 0.06%, $Canaan (CAN.US)$ rose 9.68%.
Stock-specific news
NVIDIA plans to issue at least $20 billion in bonds, returning to the bond market after a five-year hiatus, with subscriptions exceeding three times the offering size.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ announced plans to raise at least $20 billion through a bond issuance—the company’s first debt financing since 2021. According to CNBC, NVIDIA’s scale during its last bond offering in 2021 was only a fraction of its current size. Bloomberg, citing informed sources, reported that the bond received up to $85 billion in subscription orders—more than three times the initial offering size—and that the final issuance size was increased from the original target of approximately $20 billion to $25 billion. This large-scale bond issuance is seen as the latest hallmark of Silicon Valley’s AI investment boom, with market participants expecting the proceeds to be used to expand AI chip production capacity and data center infrastructure. NVIDIA shares closed more than 2% higher on Monday.
SpaceX surged 20% in its first full trading day following its listing, pushing its market capitalization above $2.5 trillion, as the 'FAB 10' concept emerged.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$Following its record-breaking IPO last week, SpaceX saw its shares surge approximately 20% in its first full trading day on Monday, lifting the company’s market value above $2.5 trillion. According to CNBC, Elon Musk stated that the company’s revenue will exceed $1 trillion by 2030. Vanda Research data showed that retail investors purchased $117 million worth of SpaceX shares on the listing day, accounting for 56% of total retail buying volume—a historic record. Retail investors are now incorporating SpaceX as a core holding in their portfolios, and the 'FAB 10' concept is beginning to replace the traditional 'Mag 7' designation.
Note: FAB 10 stands for Frontier AI & Big Tech 10—ten leading frontier AI and technology giants, comprising the original seven major tech firms plus SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. The latter two companies are not yet publicly listed, but the market expects them to enter public markets later this year, potentially at valuations reaching tens of billions of dollars.
SpaceX’s post-listing performance also affects global mutual fund investors’ accounts. Based on publicly available information, FTSE Russell is expected to add SpaceX to its index on June 26, followed by MSCI around June 29. Subsequently, $NASDAQ-100 Index (.NDX.US)$ may include the company in its index 15 trading days after its listing.
Fox Corporation announced a $22 billion acquisition of Roku Inc., accelerating its digital streaming transformation.
$Fox Corporation-A(FOXA.US)$ Announced a $22 billion premium acquisition of a streaming hardware and platform company $Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ , accelerating its transformation into the digital streaming space. This marks another major consolidation move by a traditional media giant amid intensifying competition in the streaming sector. Fox aims to leverage Roku Inc’s extensive user base and advertising technology capabilities to strengthen its digital distribution channels and direct-to-consumer business.
Amazon announced a $10 billion investment to build a data center campus in Missouri
$Amazon(AMZN.US)$ announced it will invest $10 billion to construct a large-scale data center campus in Missouri, USA. This is Amazon AWS’s latest move to continuously expand its AI and cloud computing infrastructure, reflecting tech giants’ strong conviction in the long-term growth of AI computing demand.
Advanced Micro Devices acquires memory optimization company MEXT
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) announced the acquisition of MEXT, an AI-driven memory optimization technology company, for an undisclosed amount. AMD stated that MEXT’s predictive memory technology is designed to make flash storage perform more like DRAM, thereby expanding usable memory capacity and helping data center customers reduce total cost of ownership and improve resource utilization while maintaining performance and efficiency.
USA Rare Earth shares rise: trial production of heavy rare earth oxides approaching
$USA Rare Earth (USAR.US)$ rose over 4% on Monday. The company previously announced that its hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Colorado has been commissioned, with the goal of producing separated heavy rare earth oxides—including dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium—for the first time in Q3 2026.
D-Wave Quantum target price raised by Mizuho; quantum computing stocks surge intraday
Quantum computing company $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US)$ rose 12.37% on Monday. Earlier, Mizuho Securities raised its target price for the company from $29 to $35 following its first analyst day and reaffirmed an “outperform” rating. Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh noted that D-Wave Quantum is well positioned to maintain its leadership in annealing-based quantum computing and has outlined a roadmap toward fault-tolerant gate-model quantum computing.
Applied Materials Launches Two New '3D Chip Scaling' Tools
Applied Materials (AMAT.US) On Monday, the company unveiled two new tools targeting '3D chip scaling technology'—one for deposition and one for selective etching. These tools are designed to address emerging challenges in advanced semiconductor manufacturing: achieving precision processing within increasingly deep and narrow 3D structures. According to the company, the new deposition and etch systems will help chipmakers extend technology nodes in both logic and memory applications, delivering higher performance, improved energy efficiency, and better manufacturing yields for next-generation AI chips.
Multiple studios under Microsoft’s Xbox gaming division are reportedly in active talks regarding potential spin-offs.
Microsoft (MSFT.US) Multiple studios under Microsoft’s Xbox gaming division—including Compulsion Games and Double Fine—are reportedly engaged in active discussions about potential spin-offs. Ninja Theory, developer of 'Hellblade,' is also negotiating with Microsoft to regain independence through a management buyout to avoid closure. According to a Bloomberg report, Xbox has continuously restructured its business over the past two years, including shutting down studios, canceling game development projects, and raising prices on certain products. An internal staff memo revealed that new CEO Phil Spencer stated Xbox’s profit margin had declined to 3%. Despite investing more than $20 billion over the past five years in game content, platform development, and hardware subsidies, the division’s total revenue has not grown accordingly—in fact, it has shrunk by nearly $500 million compared to five years ago.
Qualcomm in Talks to Acquire Tenstorrent to Bolster AI Chip Development Capabilities
Qualcomm (QCOM.US) Qualcomm is in discussions to acquire Tenstorrent, an artificial intelligence chip design startup. The proposed acquisition price is reported to be in the range of at least $8 billion to $10 billion, representing a significant premium over Tenstorrent’s most recent valuation. It remains unclear whether the deal will include earn-out provisions tied to performance milestones—a common feature in prior semiconductor startup acquisitions. Negotiations are ongoing, and both the final transaction value and the likelihood of closing remain subject to change or potential collapse. If completed, the acquisition would significantly expand Qualcomm’s capabilities in AI and data center chip product lines.
Top 20 by trading value
Hong Kong Market Outlook
Southbound capital increased its holdings of Hong Kong-listed stocks by over HK$2.1 billion, purchasing nearly HK$2.3 billion worth of Zhipu AI shares and net buying more than HK$1 billion of Kingboard Laminates.
On June 15 (Monday), southbound capital recorded net purchases of HK$2.11 billion in Hong Kong-listed equities.
$Zhipu(02513.HK)$、$KBTL (01888.HK)$、$KBT Group (00148.HK)$received net purchases of HK$2.294 billion, HK$1.021 billion, and HK$535 million, respectively;
$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$、$CNOOC Limited (00883.HK)$、Tencent (00700.HK)recorded net sales of HK$853 million, HK$652 million, and HK$487 million, respectively.
Persistently weak stock prices prompt leading pharmaceutical companies to launch a 'valuation defense campaign.'
Multiple pharmaceutical firms have announced share repurchase plans or have begun implementing buybacks to bolster investor confidence. On the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Sino Biopharm (01177.HK) stated in its announcement that the board has noted significant recent volatility in the company's share price and believes the current valuation is 'substantially undervalued.' The company hopes the share repurchase program will swiftly restore investor confidence and enhance shareholder returns. According to the announcement, the company has cumulatively acquired 60.35 million shares this year at a total cost of approximately HK$338 million.
Recently, $Akeso (09926.HK)$ announced that its board has approved the use of up to HK$200 million to purchase the company’s shares on the open market. Additionally, Chairperson and CEO Xia Yu, along with several other senior executives, plan to acquire shares using personal funds, with a combined maximum investment of HK$50 million. The company stated that its current share price does not adequately reflect its intrinsic value and business prospects. Also drawing attention is the recently listed Hong Kong-listed ADC-focused biotech star $Innovent Biologics-B (09606.HK)$ . According to its announcement, as of early June, the company had cumulatively repurchased 255,400 shares at a total cost of approximately HK$533.1 million.
MMG raises HK$6.268 billion through new share placement
$MMG (01208.HK)$ announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it has placed new shares under its general mandate at an issue price of HK$8.88 per share, raising gross proceeds of approximately HK$6.268 billion and net proceeds of approximately HK$6.253 billion. The company stated that the proceeds will be used for refinancing existing loans, supporting ongoing project development and expansion plans, strategic acquisitions and investments, as well as supplementing working capital and general corporate purposes. MMG is a leading global non-ferrous metals mining company, and this large-scale fundraising may signal its intent to accelerate capital deployment amid the recovery in commodity markets, offering reference value for the Hong Kong mining sector and related commodity markets.
Today's Focus
Keywords: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, China's May retail sales and industrial production data
On the economic data front, China will release a batch of key indicators for May, including retail sales, industrial production, and the 70-city home price index; the U.S. will release May housing starts (annualized) and the May import price index.
09:30 – National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
10:00 — Year-to-date (January–May) national real estate development investment in China; year-on-year industrial added value of designated-size enterprises in China for May; year-on-year total retail sales of consumer goods in China for May
20:30 — Annualized total housing starts in the U.S. for May; total building permits in the U.S. for May; month-over-month import price index in the U.S. for May
On the events front, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida at 14:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Governor Michele Bullock at 13:30.
$SENASIC (Senjia) (06675.HK)$ began grey-market trading after today’s Hong Kong market close.
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Editor/Rocky