Macroeconomic Highlights
Immediate Oil Sanctions Lift, $300 Billion Reconstruction Fund, and Final Unfreezing of Assets: Full Text of U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Draft Leaked
According to the final draft of the memorandum of understanding obtained by Bloomberg News, the United States will immediately allow Iran to resume oil exports upon signing the agreement, unfreeze its overseas assets, and work with regional partners to raise at least USD 300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction and development.
Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday or that sanctions on Russian oil would be reinstated soon; Iran said the agreement requires Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon.
Trump stated that Russia should reach an agreement with Ukraine; ships have already begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and passage will be free once the strait is permanently opened. He reiterated that the U.S. and Iran have signed an agreement and that bilateral relations have been "normalized." He plans to release the full text of the agreement and does not object to submitting it for congressional review. He expects the second phase of negotiations to proceed on schedule, with the next focus shifting to resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. U.S. media reported that Iran can resume oil exports immediately upon signing the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Iranian media reported that the U.S. has begun lifting its maritime blockade on Iran. Israeli media reported that Israel canceled a large-scale air strike against Iran at the last minute on the 8th at Trump’s request. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran stated that the MoU obligates the U.S. to unfreeze Iranian assets.
U.S. import prices posted the largest year-over-year increase in nearly four years in May.
U.S. import prices surged in May, with sharp increases in computer equipment, plastic products, and air travel costs, further highlighting inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war and the data center construction boom. According to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the import price index rose 1.9% in May, matching April’s gain. Import prices climbed 6.7% year-over-year—the fastest pace in nearly four years. Imported plastic materials, a key raw material for many consumer goods produced from fossil fuel byproducts, jumped 6.5%, marking one of the largest single-month increases on record. The category of imported air passenger fares, which directly feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, also saw a substantial rise. Meanwhile, prices for imported computers, peripheral equipment, and semiconductors increased by 3.6% in May—the second-largest monthly gain since monthly data became available in 1994. Tuesday’s report, along with a series of recent economic indicators, shows that the Iran war is exerting a tangible impact on the U.S. economy. As inflationary pressures spread beyond the initial oil price shock into broader sectors, both consumer and producer prices have risen markedly in recent months.
Wells Fargo & Co: Raises S&P 500 year-end 2026 target range forecast to 7,800–8,000 points
Wells Fargo Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2026 target range forecast for the S&P 500 Index from 7,400–7,600 points to 7,800–8,000 points and set a year-end 2027 target range at 8,600–8,800 points.
Reports indicate that the United States will allow Iran to immediately resume oil export sales.
According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter said that under the agreement, the United States will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel export sales, providing Tehran with an upfront economic incentive to help de-escalate tensions. Provisions granting exemptions from sanctions on oil sales will take effect immediately upon the agreement’s signing this week. Additionally, essential services supporting oil sales—including banking, shipping, and insurance—will also receive sanctions exemptions to ensure smooth transaction execution. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) reported that a very large crude carrier loaded with Iranian crude has departed Chabahar Port, breached the U.S. naval blockade, and exited the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its vessel tracking system activated—a first since the U.S. imposed its maritime blockade in April this year. A senior U.S. official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief for oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions easing will depend on Iran’s compliance with U.S. demands, including opening the strait and addressing nuclear-related issues. The official added that Iran will not immediately gain access to billions of dollars in frozen overseas funds.
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement Proposes $300 Billion Private Fund to Stimulate Investment in Iran
According to Reuters, sources indicated that the U.S.-Iran framework agreement includes a plan to establish a $300 billion private investment fund to stimulate investment in Iran. The $300 billion Iran Investment Fund will only become operational after the final agreement is signed. The fund is a private investment vehicle that does not involve government funding and is unrelated to negotiations over Iran’s frozen sovereign assets held abroad. The fund has already secured financial commitments from companies based in the U.S., Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa, representing more than half of its targeted capital.
Citadel Securities: Fed could begin rate hike cycle as early as September
Citadel Securities has warned that, given persistently broad-based inflation, the Federal Reserve could initiate a series of interest rate hikes as early as September 2026. The firm noted that accommodative financial conditions, ongoing supply chain disruptions, accelerating labor market recovery, and surging AI-related investment are collectively sustaining inflationary pressures. This assessment diverges from prior market expectations that the Fed would remain on hold. Should expectations for a September rate hike intensify, equity valuations—particularly those of high-multiple technology stocks—could face downward pressure, while the U.S. dollar and short-end rates would likely rise.
Goldman Sachs has surpassed $1 trillion in merger and acquisition deal volume this year, marking the fastest pace in its history.
Goldman Sachs has already surpassed $1 trillion in merger and acquisition advisory volume this year, reaching that level nearly a month earlier than its 2021 peak, with the second-place firm trailing by over $300 billion. Lenient regulation, ample financing, and AI-driven industry restructuring have significantly boosted corporate appetite for strategic M&A. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the M&A outlook.
Waller may decline to provide a dot plot forecast, breaking a 14-year precedent.
According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials’ rate path projections. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect new Fed Chair Volcker will not participate—either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot mechanism. Volcker has previously criticized the dot plot and other forms of forward guidance, arguing they constrain the Fed’s policy flexibility. If Volcker declines to submit a rate projection, it would mark a departure from the Fed’s roughly 14-year practice since the financial crisis and may distance him from other Fed officials who support this communication tool. Yet for Volcker, who has pledged fundamental reforms to the institution’s operations, this could be an effective first step. “In my view, he probably doesn’t want to submit a rate forecast,” said Bill English, former head of Fed monetary policy and now a professor at Yale University. “There might be others on the committee who aren’t fond of the dot plot either, and they might be willing to follow suit.” (Image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)
U.S. Stock Market Update
The three major U.S. stock indices moved mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.15%.
SpaceX shares surged more than 16% intraday but pared gains toward the close, ultimately finishing up 4.8%, with a closing market capitalization of $2.65 trillion—surpassing Amazon to become the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded company.
$AI Chip (LIST2548.US)$ Most declined, with Intel falling over 8%, AMD down more than 7%, Micron Technology dropping over 6%, SanDisk slipping more than 5%, and ASML Holding and Broadcom each falling over 4%.
$NASDAQ Golden Dragon China (.HXC.US)$ The index closed down 2.5% initially. Among popular Chinese ADRs, Pony AI and XPeng fell over 4%, while Tencent, Meituan, Nio, Baidu, and NetEase each declined more than 3%.
Stock-specific news
After its listing, SpaceX shares soared 49%, surpassing Amazon in market value and approaching Microsoft; stock options began trading.
Despite joining the ranks of the world’s most valuable companies by market capitalization, SpaceX’s revenue remains far smaller than that of other tech giants. The company reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, compared with Microsoft’s $281.7 billion and Amazon’s nearly $717 billion for the same period.
The relatively limited number of SpaceX shares available for trading has contributed to the stock’s price appreciation. On its first trading day, only about 4.2% of total shares were freely tradable. A low float tends to amplify price volatility, causing sharp swings in market valuation over short periods. Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, stated:
“That is indeed a factor. We’re talking about a company with an extremely limited public float, yet the market is focused on its enormous total market capitalization.”
Apple’s 2027 Product Roadmap Leaked
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Apple plans to launch new AirPods featuring a built-in camera by late 2027, alongside several other new products including a next-generation foldable phone and a special commemorative iPhone. These new AirPods will be Apple’s first wearable device centered on artificial intelligence, equipped with a computer vision camera as a sensor to provide real-world visual input to Siri. Apple is also developing multiple new chips based on advanced process technologies for future devices and aims to unveil its first smart glasses as early as late next year.
Google Releases Android 17 Operating System
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ On Tuesday, the company announced Android 17 on its official website. The new operating system introduces multiple enhancements spanning multitasking, social media video creation, and gaming experiences, while also laying the groundwork for agentic AI capabilities expected later this year.
Google Launches Brazos Liquid Cooling System to Enable Legacy Data Centers to Adopt Liquid Cooling
On Tuesday, Google Cloud introduced its Brazos rack-level closed-loop ‘liquid-to-air’ cooling system, designed to deploy high-density liquid-cooled equipment within existing air-cooled data centers. Google noted that the thermal design power (TDP) of next-generation AI/HPC chips now routinely exceeds 1,000W, surpassing the capabilities of conventional air cooling. Brazos can be installed per rack and supports a nominal thermal load of 60kW per rack. Google plans to open-source relevant technical specifications and design documentation in the coming months.
Axyv, a subsidiary of L3Harris, has reportedly selected JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to handle its initial public offering (IPO).
Snap Unveils $2,195 AR Glasses
$Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$ Snap Inc has officially launched Specs, its consumer-focused augmented reality (AR) glasses priced at $2,195. CEO Evan Spiegel positioned the product as the 'next-generation computing device,' signaling a strategic bet on AR as the computing platform that will succeed smartphones. Unlike earlier developer-only versions, these Specs are now available for purchase by general consumers. This move makes Snap the latest major tech company—following Apple’s Vision Pro—to place a significant bet on consumer AR hardware, intensifying competition in the AR/XR space against Meta Quest and Apple, and drawing increased attention to the broader AR supply chain.
Microsoft Abandons Lease of Oracle Data Center Due to Security Concerns
According to Business Insider: Citing security concerns, Microsoft has abandoned a $3 billion $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ cloud computing capacity lease deal.
Amazon Faces Billions in Fines Over Potential FTC Advertising Lawsuit
Fox acquires Roku for $22 billion, as the Murdoch family makes a new move in the streaming landscape
$Fox Corp-A (FOXA.US)$ Announced the acquisition of streaming platform Roku for approximately USD 22 billion, marking the Murdoch family's media empire's largest merger and acquisition deal in nearly seven years and representing a major strategic bet by a traditional broadcast television giant on digital transformation.
Under the agreement announced on Monday, Roku shareholders will receive $160 per share in a combination of cash and stock, representing a premium of approximately 33.7% over Thursday’s closing price. The transaction will give Fox immediate access to more than 100 million streaming households reached by the Roku platform, significantly enhancing its targeted advertising capabilities and opening broader digital distribution channels for its sports and news content.
According to Nielsen data, the combined company will become the third-largest player in U.S. television viewership, trailing only YouTube and Disney and surpassing Netflix.
Top 20 by trading value
Hong Kong Market Outlook
On Tuesday, June 16, southbound capital recorded net purchases of HKD 3.463 billion in Hong Kong-listed stocks.
$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$、$KB LAMINATES (01888.HK)$、$KINGBOARD HLDG (00148.HK)$Received net purchases of HKD 2.35 billion, HKD 1.699 billion, and HKD 1.401 billion, respectively;
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$BABA-W (09988.HK)$、$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Suffered net sales of HKD 1.639 billion, HKD 1.633 billion, and HKD 586 million, respectively.
Shenzhen Municipal Market Supervision Administration convenes centralized meetings with Meituan, Taobao Instant Delivery, and JD.com Food Delivery platforms
In response to prominent issues identified during the June 15 enforcement action targeting 'ghost food delivery' operations, the Shenzhen Municipal Market Supervision Administration summoned the heads of three platforms—Meituan, Taobao Flash Delivery, and JD.com Food Delivery. The meeting emphasized that platforms must fulfill their primary responsibilities by strictly prohibiting unlicensed, license-fraudulent, or counterfeit-certified merchants from going online, banning cross-store commissioned food processing, and establishing robust routine inspection mechanisms. The platform representatives acknowledged the issues on the spot and pledged immediate rectification, systemic improvements, and prevention of recurrence.
Alibaba launched its embodied large model series Qwen-Robot, with three models enabling robots to 'walk, observe, and think simultaneously.'
Alibaba is extending the competition around large models from the digital world into the physical world.
On June 16, Alibaba launched the Qwen-Robot series of embodied intelligence large models, introducing three models covering manipulation, mobility, and world modeling in one go—forming the first complete embodied intelligence model system within the Qwen large model family.
These three models endow robots with dexterous manipulation, autonomous navigation, and environmental perception capabilities. They can be deployed independently or operate collaboratively, enabling robots to truly 'walk, observe, and think simultaneously' and providing a reliable 'universal foundation' for diverse robotic platforms to function effectively in real-world scenarios.
DeepSeek completes its first funding round: raises over RMB 50 billion at a valuation exceeding RMB 330 billion.
DeepSeek has completed its first external financing round, with founder Liang Wenfeng personally contributing RMB 20 billion, making him the largest investor in this round; Tencent, CATL, JD.com, NetEase, and IDG Capital participated as co-investors. To ensure Liang Wenfeng retains absolute control, all external investor funds must be channeled into a limited partnership managed by him, with shares subject to a five-year lock-up period. The National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund is the sole exception, having directly invested RMB 1 billion and retaining voting rights.
Today's Focus
Key indicator: U.S. retail sales for May
On the economic data front, the U.S. will release retail sales for May and the month-over-month pending home sales index for May.
20:30 — Month-over-month U.S. retail sales for May
22:00 — Month-over-month U.S. business inventories for April; month-over-month pending home sales index in the U.S. for May
22:30 — EIA crude oil inventories in the U.S. for the week ending June 12
Earnings reports: $Jabil (JBL.US)$、 $CarMax (KMX.US)$ will release earnings before the U.S. market opens.
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Editor/Lee