On the economic data front, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for June were released, alongside China’s official Manufacturing PMI for June. In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank (ECB) forum drew attention, Trump is set to deliver a keynote speech on July 4, and Samsung announced the largest investment plan in South Korean corporate history. On the IPO front, eight new stocks will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Markets will be closed for one day each in Hong Kong and the U.S.
Overview of Key Schedules for the New Week
The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data were significantly released.
Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4, the nonfarm payrolls report will be released early on Thursday, July 2. The market expects an addition of 113,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Strong employment and wage data would reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike—following the Fed’s June meeting and Chairperson Waller’s earlier hawkish signals. The ADP employment report will also be released on July 1.
Following a series of robust employment reports—the three-month moving average of nonfarm payrolls has now risen to 188,000, the highest since Q1 2024—most Federal Reserve policymakers still view the labor market as healthy and not significantly fueling inflation. Unless the upcoming batch of employment data collectively shows a sharp, cliff-like downward revision well below expectations, the Fed’s tightening stance is unlikely to waver, and markets will likely retain their rate hike expectations.
In a research note, Investec economists stated that U.S. economic data will drive the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, with the employment report serving as a key indicator. “Early-year data suggested a weakening labor market, but recent indicators show signs of stabilization. We expect this month’s data to further confirm this trend, with job gains estimated at 160,000, not far from May’s figure of 172,000.”
The European Central Bank forum draws attention.
The ECB’s annual policy forum will take place from June 29 to July 1 in Sintra, Portugal, focusing on long-term strategies for European innovation, economic growth, and financial stability. The forum gathers central bank governors from major global economies, including ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Waller.
How the Middle East situation affects the monetary policy environment is a core market concern. Given the lingering uncertainty around the transmission effects of the initial energy price shock, central banks are likely to maintain a cautious stance in the near term. Market participants are closely watching Fed Chair Waller’s speech on the evening of July 1; if he reiterates a hawkish tone at the forum, it would further strengthen market expectations of a Fed rate hike.
Trump: To deliver a keynote speech on July 4
U.S. President Trump announced a “largest-ever Trump rally” in Washington on July 4, U.S. Independence Day, where he will deliver a keynote speech. Additionally, Trump will attend an event at Mount Rushmore on July 3.
U.S. and Iran Exchange Accusations of Breach Amid Renewed Oil Price Rally Alert
On the 28th local time, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement strongly condemning U.S. military strikes on multiple locations along Iran’s southern coast on the evening of the 27th. The statement asserted that these U.S. attacks blatantly violated the UN Charter and Article I of the prior U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, demonstrating that Washington places no value on its commitments, adding that 'breaking promises is inherent to the U.S. regime.'
The statement called upon the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary-General to fulfill their responsibilities for maintaining international peace and security, and emphasized Iran’s firm resolve to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity under the UN Charter against U.S. military aggression. The latest round of attacks in the Persian Gulf underscores that even though Iran and the United States have reached a temporary agreement aimed at finalizing a ceasefire deal, the conflict risks spiraling out of control.
A 4-Trillion-Yuan Expansion Plan? Samsung to Announce Advanced Industry Investment Program Exceeding 1,000 Trillion KRW
According to Maeil Business Newspaper, Samsung Group will unveil a decade-long domestic investment plan totaling 1,000 trillion Korean won (approximately USD 647.53 billion or RMB 4 trillion) at Cheong Wa Dae on June 29. This would mark the largest corporate investment in South Korean history, equivalent to roughly half of the country’s GDP.
Reports indicate that the plan may allocate 300 trillion won toward constructing semiconductor fabrication plants in southwestern Korea. Against the backdrop of record profits during the semiconductor boom, Samsung aims to sustain its technological leadership, identify new growth engines, and support the government’s regional balanced development policy.
July Price Hikes Underway: Chip Prices Surge Across the Board
In July, a global price-increase wave driven by AI demand is accelerating across supply chains. According to incomplete statistics, more than ten leading companies in the semiconductor and related sectors have announced or signaled price hikes effective July 1, spanning critical segments from upstream materials to end-market chips.
Murata has raised prices by 10%–40% for MLCCs used in AI servers and automotive applications; Nippon Sanso increased ammonia gas prices by over 30%; MediaTek signaled upcoming chip price increases; Infineon and Texas Instruments implemented their second price hike this year; and power semiconductor firms such as Yangjie Technology and Lontium Semiconductor simultaneously raised prices by 10%–15%. According to The Paper, this round of price increases covers virtually all IC design companies in Taiwan. Bloomberg Economics notes that AI-related demand is fueling inflation, and market attention will focus on whether these cost increases can be effectively passed through to end markets and their impact on downstream demand.
China's Official Manufacturing PMI for June
China's official Manufacturing PMI for June will be released on Tuesday, June 30. The May Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Markets expect a slight uptick in the June Manufacturing PMI. On July 1, RatingDog’s Manufacturing PMI, which focuses more on export-oriented enterprises, will also be released.
Davos Tech Summit 2026 Opens
The Davos Tech Summit 2026 will take place from July 1 to 4, 2026, at the Davos Congress Centre in Switzerland. This year’s summit centers on the theme “Physical AI & Robotics,” featuring live demonstrations by over 30 global humanoid, quadruped, and drone robotics companies; keynote speeches by industry leaders including NVIDIA and ETH Zurich; and the implementation of a city-wide “Robot City” showcase.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
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Monday (June 29)
Keywords: Thomas Barkin, 2027 FOMC voting member; Dallas Fed Business Activity Index
On the economic data front, the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for June will be released.
22:30 U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for June
On the economic calendar, at 00:35, Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and a voting member of the 2027 FOMC, will deliver a speech. The 2026 Beijing Space Computing Power Conference will be held from June 29 to 30, during which the 'Beijing Space Computing Power Industry Innovation Center' will be officially inaugurated, alongside the formation of an expert committee and an industry innovation alliance. On June 29, Samsung Group will unveil a decade-long domestic investment plan in South Korea totaling 1,000 trillion Korean won (approximately USD 647.53 billion or CNY 4 trillion)—the largest corporate investment in South Korean history, equivalent to roughly half of the country’s GDP.
Regarding IPOs, $ALEBUND-B (09637.HK)$ 、 $BAIGE DIGITAL (02672.HK)$ 、 $CREALIGHTS (01191.HK)$ 9:20 Listing on HKEX, $XUNLONG SCITECH (06715.HK)$ 、 $JIANGXI BIO (06915.HK)$ 、 $TH MEDICAL-B (02697.HK)$ 、 $LAIFUAL (03952.HK)$ Dark pool trading opens at 16:15.
Tuesday (June 30)
Keywords: China PMI; U.S.-Iran negotiations; Nike
On the economic data front, China's official Manufacturing PMI for June, the Chicago PMI for June in the U.S., U.S. JOLTs job openings for May, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June in the U.S. will be released.
09:30 China Official Manufacturing PMI for June
21:45 U.S. Chicago PMI for June
22:00 U.S. May JOLTs Job Openings (in ten thousand), U.S. June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
On the economic events front, the U.S. and Iran will hold technical negotiations; the 2026 China Intelligent Computing Industry Ecosystem Development Annual Conference will be held in Shenzhen on June 30, focusing on GW-scale token factories—the core form of the next-generation computing infrastructure.
Earnings reports: $Nike (NKE.US)$ 、 $Constellation Brands (STZ.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes.
Regarding IPOs, $XUNLONG SCITECH (06715.HK)$ 、 $JIANGXI BIO (06915.HK)$ 、 $TH MEDICAL-B (02697.HK)$ 、 $LAIFUAL (03952.HK)$ 9:20 Listing on HKEX, $ANKER (00668.HK)$ Dark pool trading opens at 16:15.
Wednesday (July 1)
Keywords: Hong Kong stock market closed; ADP; U.S. PMI; Wursh
On the economic data front, the following releases are scheduled: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 26, China's June RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Challenger job cuts in June, U.S. June ADP employment change, U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final reading, U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 26.
4:30 a.m. U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 26 (in 10,000 barrels)
9:45 a.m. China's June RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
5:30 p.m. U.S. June Challenger job cuts (in 10,000s)
8:15 p.m. U.S. June ADP employment change (in 10,000s)
9:45 p.m. U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final reading
10:00 p.m. U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:30 p.m. U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 26 (in 10,000 barrels)
On the economic calendar, at 21:30, Federal Reserve Chair Waller, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will deliver speeches at the ECB Forum; the Davos Technology Summit officially opens today; and electronica Shanghai, a major electronics industry event, will be held from July 1–3 at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre, featuring themes including AI chips, automotive electronics, advanced packaging, and power semiconductors.
Markets closed: Hong Kong markets are closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day holiday.
Thursday (July 2)
Keywords: Nonfarm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; Jobless Claims; Anker Innovations
Key economic data releases include the U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, weekly initial jobless claims, and May factory orders month-over-month.
20:30 U.S. June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment (in 10,000s), U.S. June unemployment rate, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims as of June 27 (in 10,000s)
22:00 U.S. May factory orders month-over-month
On the economic calendar, the 2026 Shanghai International Embodied Intelligence Industry Expo will be held in Shanghai from July 2 to 4.
Regarding IPOs, $ANKER (00668.HK)$ will officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9:20.
Friday (July 3)
Keywords: China RatingDog Services PMI; U.S. stock market closed
On the economic data front, China's June RatingDog Services PMI will be released.
9:45 China June RatingDog Services PMI
Market holiday: U.S. Independence Day—U.S. stock markets closed.
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Wishing fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/Lambor