The U.S. plans to utilize the current diplomatic window to replenish global crude oil inventories and stabilize energy markets. This statement—framed as 'trading oil for time'—has sparked deep concerns abroad that tensions in the Middle East could escalate once again.
In an interview, U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that the United States plans to use the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached with Iran to supplement global oil supplies and preserve room for potential future military action.
In the interview, Vance stated: 'I believe what the President has asked us to do is use this memorandum of understanding to, in some way, rebuild inventories within the global oil system—restoring part of our reserves—and then see how the situation develops.'
He further explained that the U.S. has two potential pathways regarding its policy toward Iran. On one hand, if Iran is willing to make commitments aligned with U.S. expectations and implements them through verifiable, phased objectives, 'we will change our relationship with Iran.' On the other hand, if those conditions are not met, 'there will effectively be no change, aside from the gains we have already achieved through military action—which have been quite significant.'
Vance added: 'We have two options: one is to pursue a long-term agreement with Iran, but that would require a major shift in its behavior; the other is to consolidate our current gains and take further action if the President deems it necessary. Both options are currently under consideration.'
In the same interview, host Michael Knowles summarized this stance by stating that the U.S. has not reached a stable arrangement with Iran, but instead prioritizes its own interests—using the replenishment of oil reserves to buy time—and hinted that stronger measures might still follow. He remarked: 'If you’re on the Iranian side, the message you’re receiving isn’t that “the issue has been resolved,” but rather that the U.S. will first replenish its oil resources and then reassess the situation in 60 days, potentially taking even tougher actions afterward.'
Vance did not object to this characterization and responded: 'If you genuinely change your behavior, then it won’t happen, right?'
Analysts say these remarks have heightened Iranian concerns about a renewed escalation of tensions. Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, wrote on social media that Vance’s comments have deepened Iran’s apprehension that, despite the existing memorandum of understanding, conflict could reignite.
Parsi noted that within Iran’s national security discussions, a gradually emerging consensus holds that Israel might launch another attack on Iran before its October elections. He wrote: 'Will Israel restart its war against Iran before the October elections? This has become the prevailing view in Iran’s internal national security discussions over the past week.'
He further analyzed that this assessment is driven by multiple factors. These include Iran’s deep-seated distrust of U.S. President Trump’s intentions—a distrust amplified by Vance’s remarks about using the memorandum of understanding to replenish global oil reserves and then 'wait and see'—as well as the recent agreement between Israel and Lebanon and its implications for Hezbollah’s military posture in the coming months.
Editor/melody