Key Events Schedule for the New Week

• Waller testifies before Congress for the first time as Fed Chair; markets focus on interest rate signals all week

Federal Reserve Chair Waller will appear before Congress for two consecutive days—Tuesday and Wednesday—for the semiannual monetary policy hearings. This marks his first appearance before Congress as Fed Chair since taking office and will be the week’s most significant market-moving event.

At 22:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, Waller will testify before the House Committee on Financial Services; at 22:00 on Wednesday, he will appear before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Both hearings center on the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

The key focus of these hearings is that the U.S. June CPI data, released at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, comes just 90 minutes before the first hearing, leaving Waller virtually unable to avoid addressing inflation and the interest rate path. Markets will closely watch how he assesses the latest inflation figures, whether energy price shocks are seen as persistent, and whether he leaves the door open to potential rate hikes in July or September.

The June FOMC statement omitted the traditional forward guidance on interest rates, and Waller subsequently emphasized that the Fed will base its decisions on incoming data and the economic outlook. If CPI shows cooling and Waller softens his hawkish stance, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could face downward pressure, potentially supporting tech growth stocks and gold. Conversely, if inflation comes in hotter than expected and Waller does not rule out further tightening, markets may continue reinforcing bets on additional rate hikes.

In addition, several other Federal Reserve officials will make public remarks.

At 00:30 on Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech.

At 01:00 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will participate in a fireside chat; at 20:45, New York Fed President Williams, a permanent FOMC voter, will give a speech.

At 06:30 on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, a 2028 FOMC voting member, will deliver a speech.

At 00:30 on Friday, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a 2026 FOMC voting member, will deliver remarks; at 07:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy.

• U.S. June CPI and PPI data are set for release, testing inflation trends and consumer spending against rate hike expectations.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI for June will be released at 20:30 on Tuesday. Multiple institutions forecast that the year-over-year headline CPI may decline from May’s 4.2% to a range of 3.8%–3.9%, while core CPI is expected to remain around 2.9% year-over-year. Given minor variations in institutional forecasts, market participants are particularly focused on month-over-month figures and changes in key components such as shelter, services, and energy.

If core inflation shows a clear deceleration, markets may reduce bets on additional rate hikes this year; conversely, if rising energy prices begin to spill over into broader goods and services prices, expectations for further Fed tightening could intensify.

At 20:30 on Wednesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI for June will follow, offering investors the latest insights into upstream pricing pressures. On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. June retail sales data will assess the impact of elevated interest rates and rising prices on household consumption.

For markets, next week is not about trading on any single inflation report in isolation, but rather about forming a cohesive view by integrating the sequence of 'CPI – Waller testimony – PPI – retail sales.' Whether the data and Chair Waller’s comments reinforce each other will determine the direction of U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and technology growth stocks.

• U.S.-Iran tensions—marked by simultaneous fighting and negotiations—continue to drive oil prices via developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S.-Iran geopolitical dynamics will remain the largest non-calendar-driven risk next week. Both sides launched fresh military strikes this week, with Trump declaring that the previously agreed ceasefire has ended, while simultaneously stating that the U.S. remains open to continuing negotiations with Iran.

By the weekend, the U.S. had demanded that Iran publicly commit to halting attacks on commercial vessels and guaranteeing free and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Oman to discuss maritime transit arrangements with regional mediators. Even as talks proceed, Iran again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and launched attacks on U.S. military bases in the Gulf, while U.S. forces carried out a new round of strikes on Iranian targets—highlighting a clear pattern of 'fighting while negotiating.'

Next week, markets must closely monitor whether Iran accepts the U.S. demand for guaranteed navigation, whether Omani mediation can produce a temporary arrangement, and whether either side escalates military operations. If stable transit through the Strait resumes, the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil could quickly dissipate; however, if commercial ships come under attack or U.S. military actions intensify, oil prices, gold, and defense stocks may rally, while airlines, shipping firms, and energy-intensive sectors face downward pressure. Oil price movements will, in turn, feed back into U.S. inflation dynamics and influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.

• The five major Wall Street banks will release their earnings reports en masse on Tuesday, officially kicking off the Q2 earnings season.

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ will collectively report their second-quarter results before U.S. market open on Tuesday, setting the tone for this earnings season. Market participants will closely monitor whether investment banking and trading revenues have benefited from heightened capital market activity, whether net interest income has continued to improve, and whether loan growth, deposit costs, and credit losses signal an economic slowdown.

LSEG IBES expects that$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$the S&P 500 constituents may post a year-over-year earnings increase of 23.7% in the second quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter with growth exceeding 20%. If large banks deliver solid results and guidance, it would reinforce the view that the current U.S. equity rally remains underpinned by earnings growth; however, if credit quality deteriorates or cost pressures exceed expectations, concerns about a subsequent U.S. economic slowdown could intensify.

• ASML Holding and Taiwan Semiconductor follow with their earnings reports, testing the strength of AI-related capital expenditure trends.

In addition to bank stocks, the global semiconductor supply chain will also see two critical earnings reports.$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$will release its second-quarter earnings before the U.S. market opens on Wednesday. The market will closely watch new orders, EUV tool shipments, and full-year guidance. As a key supplier of advanced process manufacturing equipment, ASML Holding’s order trends are viewed as a leading indicator of semiconductor capital expenditure.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ will release its full second-quarter results before the U.S. market opens on Thursday (midday Beijing time). Investors will focus on AI-related revenue, utilization rates of advanced process capacity, advanced packaging capacity such as CoWoS, and the full-year capital expenditure plan. Whether Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML Holding can continue to deliver earnings surprises will directly influence market sentiment regarding the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment. Additionally, Taiwan Semiconductor’s delayed June sales data, impacted by typhoons, will be released on Monday.

• China’s Q2 GDP and other key economic indicators will be released in quick succession; Hong Kong stocks await signals of economic recovery

China’s June trade data will be released on Tuesday. At 10:00 on Wednesday, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economy in the first half of the year, during which China’s Q2 GDP, June retail sales, and industrial output above designated size will all be unveiled simultaneously.

CICC expects June’s economic data to continue the pattern of ‘external strength and domestic weakness,’ with Q2 GDP growth estimated at around 4.4% year-over-year. For Hong Kong equities, the extent of recovery in consumption, real estate, and industrial production will shape market expectations for future pro-growth policy support and may prompt re-pricing in internet, consumer, property, and raw materials sectors.

• GigaDevice faces HK$10 billion lock-up expiration, testing liquidity for the memory chip leader

$GigaDevice (03986.HK)$ will see the first tranche of cornerstone investor lock-ups expire on July 13, involving approximately 14.39 million shares. Based on the closing price on July 10, the unlocked shares are valued at roughly HK$10.69 billion. Given that the company’s H-shares have risen more than 300% since listing, cornerstone investors hold substantial unrealized gains, making potential concentrated selling post-lockup a key market concern. As a representative stock in Hong Kong’s memory chip and domestic substitution sectors, its share price performance could also affect overall risk appetite in the semiconductor sector.

• Major tech events scheduled: Jensen Huang appears in Tokyo, Alibaba Cloud partners with Salesforce, and Gemini 3.5 Pro rumored for Friday launch

Next week, several prominent technology companies will host product and industry events. On July 15, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang will attend the 30th-anniversary commemoration event in Tokyo co-hosted by NVIDIA and Sega, where he will showcase the personal AI computing platform RTX Spark to the Japanese market. Market participants will closely watch whether Huang provides further details on the product’s launch timeline, OEM partnerships, and NVIDIA’s personal AI computing strategy. NVIDIA officially unveiled the RTX Spark product at the end of May.

On the same day, $Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ Alibaba Cloud and $Salesforce(CRM.US)$ will hold their annual summit in Shanghai, with discussions centered on AI+CRM, enterprise agents, industry clouds, and Chinese enterprises’ global expansion. On the same day, Alibaba Cloud will also adjust pricing for certain DDoS protection products, while Qwen and Doubao will simultaneously discontinue user-created agent functionality.

Additionally, according to media reports, Google-C (GOOG.US) DeepMind may release Gemini 3.5 Pro on July 17. Google has previously confirmed only that the next-generation Pro model will launch in July, but the exact date has not been officially confirmed. If the new model launches as scheduled, its code generation capabilities, agent execution performance, and pricing will serve as key indicators for assessing Google’s AI competitiveness and the commercialization prospects of Google Cloud.

The World Artificial Intelligence Conference, opening in Shanghai on July 17, will also feature concentrated showcases of Huawei’s new Atlas 950 SuperPoD computing product, $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK)$ the M3 multimodal model, and a range of AI-enabled devices and robotics products.

Key earnings calendar for the new week.

The U.S. second-quarter earnings season has officially begun. Tuesday will focus on earnings releases from Wall Street’s five major banks, while Wednesday will spotlight $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ and $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ , followed on Thursday by $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、$UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ and $Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$ and other companies. In the Hong Kong market, there are currently no significant interim earnings reports or scheduled grey-market trading for new listings next week.

Monday, July 13

Keywords: OPEC Monthly Report; Taiwan Semiconductor June Sales Data, GigaDevice Share Lock-up Expiry, SK Hynix U.S.-Listed Leveraged ETF Launch

On the economic data front, there are no particularly significant U.S. economic releases scheduled for Monday.

In terms of financial events, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report at a time yet to be confirmed, typically between 18:00 and 21:00 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of U.S.-Iran tensions and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the market will closely watch OPEC’s assessment of global crude oil supply and demand, production levels, and price outlook.

In addition, $GigaDevice (03986.HK)$On July 13, the first batch of lock-up shares held by cornerstone investors will be released, amounting to approximately 14.39 million shares.

Regarding earnings, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ will release its June sales figures, which were delayed due to typhoon-related disruptions.

Regarding IPOs, $SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$ Following its ADR listing, a wave of leveraged and inverse ETFs is set to launch. Firms including ProShares, GraniteShares, and Leverage Shares plan to introduce on July 13 $PROSHARES ULTRA SK HYNIX(SKHU.US)$ 、 $2x Long SK Hynix ETF – Leverage Shares (SKHX.US)$ 、 $1x Short SK Hynix ETF – Leverage Shares (SKHZ.US)$ 、 $2x Long SK Hynix ETF – GraniteShares (SKUU.US)$ and $2x Short SK Hynix ETF - GraniteShares (SKDD.US)$ and similar products; the listing of related ETFs could further amplify short-term trading volume and price volatility of SK Hynix.

Tuesday, July 14

Keywords: U.S. CPI; Chair Weller’s first congressional hearing; earnings reports from Wall Street’s five largest banks

On the economic data front, at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on China’s import and export performance for the first half of 2026; at 18:00, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June will be released; at 20:15, the weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ending June 27 will be published; and at 20:30, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI for June will be released.

On the financial events front, at 00:30, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver remarks; at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Weller will appear before the House Committee on Financial Services for the semiannual Monetary Policy Report hearing.

Regarding earnings, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ will release its earnings before the U.S. stock market opens.

Wednesday, July 15

Key highlights: China Q2 GDP; U.S. PPI; Waller Senate hearing; ASML earnings

On the economic data front, at 09:30, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major cities; at 10:00, China will release Q2 GDP, June retail sales, and industrial output above designated size; at 17:00, eurozone May industrial production month-over-month will be released; at 20:30, the U.S. will release June PPI and core PPI.

On the financial events front, at 01:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; at 20:45, New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; at 22:00, Waller will appear before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; at 22:30, the Bank of Canada will hold a monetary policy press conference.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will also chair a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council to discuss geopolitical risks, artificial intelligence, and financial stability issues.

Regarding earnings, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ 、 $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ 、 $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ will release its earnings before the U.S. market opens;$United Airlines (UAL.US)$ will report earnings after the U.S. market close.

Thursday, July 16

Key highlights: Federal Reserve Beige Book;$U.S. Retail Sales (USRS.EC)$; Bank of Korea policy decision; earnings reports from Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix

On the economic data front, at 14:00, the UK will release its three-month GDP, manufacturing output, and industrial production data for May; at 20:30, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales month-over-month, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July; at 22:00, the U.S. will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for July, business inventories month-over-month for May, and existing home sales pending index month-over-month for June.

On the financial events front, at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; at 06:30, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver a speech. The Bank of Korea will announce its interest rate decision, with markets watching closely for a potential first rate hike since 2021.

Regarding earnings, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ 、 $UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ 、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ 、$U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$、$State Street Corporation (STT.US)$、$Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$will release earnings before the U.S. market opens; $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ 、 $Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$ 、 $Alcoa Corporation (AA.US)$ will report earnings after the U.S. market closes.

Friday, July 17

Key events: World Artificial Intelligence Conference; South Korean markets closed; U.S. monthly options expiration

On the economic data front, at 17:00, Eurozone June CPI and core CPI final readings will be released; at 20:30, U.S. June housing starts (annualized), building permits, and import price index (month-over-month) will be published; at 21:15, U.S. June industrial production (month-over-month) will be released; at 22:00, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s July consumer sentiment index will be issued.

On the financial calendar, at 00:30, Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver remarks; at 07:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy; the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference will open in Shanghai; China’s refined oil pricing window will reset for a new adjustment cycle.

In terms of market activity, July 17 marks the standard monthly options expiration date for U.S. equities. Given the concentration of macroeconomic events and earnings reports this week, short-dated options positions in bank stocks, semiconductors, and large-cap technology shares may rise significantly. Investors should pay attention to the impact of market makers’ hedging activities and position roll-overs on intraday and end-of-day volatility this Friday.

Regarding market holidays, the Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea will be closed for one day due to Constitution Day.

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Wishing fellow investors a successful week ahead!

Editor/Rocky