① In a report released on Monday, the Bank of Korea dismissed investor concerns that the semiconductor cycle has already peaked; ② The central bank stated that the global semiconductor market remains in a state of supply shortage, and the AI-driven chip supercycle is expected to persist for some time; ③ Amid the release of this report, the so-called 'memory duo' plunged again on Monday: SK Hynix fell by more than 10%, and Samsung Electronics dropped over 6%.
Caixin Global, July 13 (Editor Bian Chun) — In a report released Monday, the Bank of Korea dismissed investor concerns that the semiconductor cycle has already peaked. The central bank stated that the global semiconductor market remains in a state of supply shortage, and the AI-driven chip supercycle is expected to persist for some time.
“AI infrastructure investment has significantly boosted semiconductor demand, but the pace of supply expansion remains slow,” the Bank of Korea said in a report submitted to members of the National Assembly, adding that there are no signs yet of a slowdown in the semiconductor industry cycle.
The Bank of Korea noted that the current chip cycle differs from previous ones, as it is driven by aggressive corporate investments based on expectations that the widespread adoption of AI will fundamentally transform industrial ecosystems.
“Because the market is dominated by customized products such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), supply expansion is more constrained than in past cycles,” the Bank of Korea stated. “The expansion trend in the global semiconductor market is expected to continue for a considerable period.”
Amid the release of the report, global tech stocks have recently been sold off due to growing market concerns that corporate debt-fueled AI infrastructure spending, elevated sector valuations, and potential oversupply of memory chips could weigh on the market.
In South Korea, shares of the 'memory chip duo,' Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have declined sharply in recent trading sessions. On July 2 alone, Samsung Electronics fell by over 9%, while SK Hynix dropped nearly 15%.
On last Tuesday, Samsung Electronics announced better-than-expected preliminary second-quarter earnings—posting an operating profit of nearly 9 trillion Korean won (approximately USD 59.9 billion)—yet its share price declined instead of rising, falling 7% that day, while SK Hynix dropped 6%.
“There remains uncertainty regarding the pace of AI technology adoption, its range of applications, and its profitability outlook,” the Bank of Korea said. “However, major investment banks—including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley—generally forecast that the global semiconductor market will remain robust at least through next year.”
Monday, $Korea Composite Index (.KOSPI.KR)$ It opened down 0.9%, quickly rebounded into positive territory after dipping more than 1%, but has since turned negative again, with losses widening to over 5% as of this writing. $SK Hynix (000660.KR)$ Fell by more than 10%, $Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ and Apple declined more than 6%.
On the news front, tensions in the Middle East escalated further over the weekend. Iran and the United States exchanged attacks once again, and Iran announced anew its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the two sides diverged in their statements regarding the strait’s navigability. U.S. President Trump stated on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz 'remains open.'
Editor/Jayden