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ASML Holding's Q2 results significantly exceeded expectations, prompting another upward revision of its full-year guidance, with low-NA EUV capacity set to increase by 30% by 2027.

wallstreetcn ·  Jul 15 13:58

ASML Holding has raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to €43 billion–€45 billion, a significant increase from the previous range of €36 billion–€40 billion. ASML disclosed that Intel has officially deployed High NA EUV equipment at its Oregon facility in the U.S. for volume production of certain Ultra 3 (Panther Lake) processors.

Strong and sustained demand for AI chips has driven a surge in orders, boosting the performance of leading semiconductor lithography equipment manufacturer $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ The company reported robust quarterly results, with multiple key metrics exceeding market expectations, and raised its full-year guidance.

ASML Holding reported second-quarter net sales of €9.33 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of €8.85 billion; net income came in at €2.92 billion, also above the market expectation of €2.64 billion. Gross margin reached 54%, outperforming the anticipated 52%.

Buoyed by strong performance momentum, ASML Holding significantly raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance from the previous range of €36–40 billion to €43–45 billion, while also lifting its gross margin guidance from 51%–53% to 54%–56%. The company forecasts third-quarter net sales of €11–12 billion, with a midpoint substantially above Bloomberg analysts’ consensus estimate of €10.27 billion, and expects gross margins in the range of 55%–57%.

The company stated that, building on a planned capacity of approximately 65 low-numerical-aperture (low-NA) EUV tools in 2026, it aims to increase this capacity by around 30% in 2027 and is currently evaluating the possibility of an additional 30% increase in 2028. Meanwhile, ASML disclosed that Intel has officially deployed High-NA EUV equipment for volume production of certain Ultra 3 (Panther Lake) processors at its Oregon facility in the United States.

All key metrics beat expectations, with Q3 guidance once again exceeding forecasts

ASML Holding’s second-quarter results surpassed market expectations across multiple key indicators. Net sales of €9.33 billion were approximately 5.4% higher than estimated, while service and field operations revenue reached €2.76 billion, exceeding the forecast of €2.49 billion. Gross margin of 54% was 2 percentage points above expectations, and net income of €2.92 billion was roughly 10.6% higher than projected.

For the third quarter, the company expects net sales of €11–12 billion, significantly above the market consensus of €10.27 billion, with gross margins projected in the range of 55%–57%.

Regarding its full-year outlook, ASML Holding raised the upper end of its net sales guidance from €40 billion to €45 billion and lifted the lower bound from €36 billion to €43 billion—an adjustment so substantial that it has drawn significant attention across the industry. In the earnings statement, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said: "Based on our current business momentum, we are planning to increase capacity by 30% in 2027 from our projected 2026 base of approximately 65 low-NA EUV systems, and we are studying the feasibility of a further 30% increase in 2028." The company also announced that its next Capital Markets Day will be held on June 10, 2027, when it will provide updated long-term guidance on market and technology trends.

The AI infrastructure investment boom is the core driver

ASML Holding had already raised its full-year guidance in the first quarter, driven primarily by clients’ continued expansion of AI chip production capacity. ASML’s EUV lithography systems are the only tools globally capable of performing the advanced lithography processes required to manufacture the most cutting-edge AI chips, forming the foundation of its irreplaceable competitive advantage.

Data released earlier this week by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), one of ASML Holding's largest customers, also confirmed this demand trend—TSMC reported a 68% year-over-year increase in June sales, driven by strong demand for its chips. According to Reuters, TSMC also plans to add two new advanced packaging facilities at the Chiayi Science Park in southern Taiwan.

In a research report dated July 10, analysts at UBS Group noted that capacity expansion by semiconductor wafer fabs, coupled with AI-driven demand for advanced-node chips, is expected to sustain ASML Holding’s strong performance in the second half of the year.

Intel adopts High NA EUV, marking a significant step toward commercialization of critical equipment

In a joint statement, ASML Holding and Intel announced that Intel has already used ASML’s EXE High NA EUV system at its Oregon facility to manufacture certain Ultra 3 (Lynx Point) laptop processors, specifically employing the tool for selected layers of chip fabrication to collect data and optimize equipment performance. Intel utilizes both standard EUV and High NA EUV systems in its 18A manufacturing process.

Each High NA EUV system costs approximately USD 400 million—about twice the price of a standard EUV tool—and presents significant technical integration challenges. Intel received the world’s first High NA EUV system at its Hillsboro R&D site as early as 2024 and was the first to install a version closer to mass-production readiness; this latest move represents a formal advancement into volume production based on that foundation.

Naga Chandrasekaran, Executive Vice President and General Manager of Intel’s Chip Manufacturing Division, stated in the joint announcement: "This milestone reflects the close technical collaboration between Intel and ASML Holding and demonstrates how High NA EUV can be scaled and integrated into advanced semiconductor manufacturing."

Taiwan Semiconductor previously stated publicly that the latest-generation ASML equipment is too costly for high-volume manufacturing and would delay its adoption timeline. Intel’s current deployment helps alleviate market concerns regarding the commercial viability of High NA EUV to some extent and provides a positive demonstration effect for ASML Holding’s efforts to promote this product line.

Capacity expansion roadmap clearly defined through 2028

Strong demand has prompted ASML Holding to accelerate its capacity expansion plans. The company indicated it aims to increase its low numerical aperture EUV tool capacity by approximately 30% in 2027, building on a base of around 65 systems in 2026, and is exploring the possibility of a further 30% increase in 2028.

This capacity expansion trajectory indicates that ASML Holding maintains an optimistic outlook on the sustainability of semiconductor equipment demand and is proactively reserving supply capacity for potentially accelerated technology iteration cycles in the coming years.

Editor/lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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