In the first half of the year, investment in emerging sectors showed robust growth, with high-tech industry investment increasing by 4.6% year-on-year. Specifically, investment in integrated circuit manufacturing rose by 8.8%, electronic specialty materials manufacturing by 10%, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing by 24.4%.
On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Despite multiple internal and external pressures, the economy remained within a reasonable operating range. Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that achieving 4.7% growth is particularly commendable for an economy of China’s immense scale. He also noted that new drivers of growth are continuously expanding and increasingly underpinning China’s economic development.
At the press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics also addressed public concerns regarding consumption, fixed-asset investment, and the real estate sector. Mao Shengyong suggested observing China’s consumption trends using a comprehensive metric—total retail sales of goods and services—which provides a more complete picture of the consumer market. He further indicated that China still has ample room to expand effective investment and noted some positive developments in the current real estate market.
How should the 4.7% economic growth rate be interpreted?
Preliminary calculations show that GDP in the first half of the year amounted to RMB 69.5704 trillion, representing a 4.7% year-on-year increase at constant prices. By quarter, GDP grew by 5.0% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded by 0.9% in Q2.
Mao Shengyong stated that the 4.7% growth rate aligns with the annual economic growth target. Compared with the same period last year, GDP increased by RMB 3.6 trillion—the largest year-on-year increment over the past five years. For an economy of China’s vast scale, achieving 4.7% growth is especially noteworthy.
Since the beginning of this year—and particularly since Q2—the global economy has undergone new shifts. Several international institutions have projected varying degrees of slowdown in major economies during Q2. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its forecast for global economic growth downward to 3.0% for the year but upgraded its growth projection for China by 0.2 percentage points.
Mao Shengyong emphasized that the slight deceleration in Q2 compared with Q1 was primarily due to short-term and external factors, and that the fundamental trend of stable, high-quality economic development remains unchanged.
Beyond GDP growth, three other key macroeconomic indicators also reflect overall stability in macroeconomic performance. On employment, the average urban survey unemployment rate stood at 5.2% in the first half, unchanged from the same period last year and down 0.1 percentage point from Q1. On prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderately rebounded, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) turned positive; both indices remained within the reasonable range of 1%–2% and exhibited mild upward trends. Regarding the balance of payments, merchandise trade volume reached a record high, foreign exchange reserves stayed above USD 3.4 trillion, and the renminbi exchange rate appreciated by approximately 3% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year.
Moreover, China’s economic resilience continues to be evident in areas such as energy security and food supply. In the first half of the year, domestic production of key energy products remained stable, imports were under autonomous control, and energy supply was sufficiently robust to meet diverse production and living needs. Summer grain output exceeded 300 billion jin for the first time this year, further strengthening the foundation of national food security and providing solid support for full-year grain production, price stability, and people’s livelihood保障.
New growth drivers contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first half of the year.
New growth drivers continue to expand and strengthen, increasingly becoming the backbone of China's economy—a trend further reflected in the newly released data.
According to preliminary estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, new growth drivers—represented by high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services—accounted for more than 40% of economic growth.
New growth drivers encompass not only high-tech industries, modern services, and digital sectors that represent emerging technologies and fields, but also traditional industries undergoing digital transformation to achieve green development, quality improvement, and upgrading.
Mao Shengyong noted that value-added output in aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing and electronic and communications equipment manufacturing increased by 16.3% and 17%, respectively; industries linked to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and smart vehicle-mounted device manufacturing, all maintained robust growth exceeding 30%; and the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60% for three consecutive months in the first half of the year, driving a 39.3% year-on-year increase in lithium-ion battery production. These figures collectively indicate steady acceleration toward a higher-quality, innovation-driven economy.
In fact, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing have spurred demand for specialized services such as information technology, modern finance, R&D design, and business services, opening vast growth opportunities for the modern service sector. Data show that in the first half of the year, value-added output in the information transmission, software, and information technology services sector and the leasing and business services sector both grew by over 10%, contributing nearly one-quarter to overall economic growth.
Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and head of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics on the National Economy, also pointed out that both investment and consumption are exhibiting many new characteristics and trends. In terms of investment, enterprises are placing greater emphasis on R&D and innovation, continuously increasing investments in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of total fixed asset investment, up 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. On the consumption side, intelligent, green, and health-oriented consumption is gradually becoming a new trend.
“In the second half of the year, new growth drivers will remain highly robust in supporting and steering economic development,” said Mao Shengyong.
There remains considerable potential to expand effective investment.
Data show that fixed asset investment declined by 5.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, or by 2.7% after excluding real estate development investment.
Mao Shengyong stated that fixed-asset investment growth was negative in the first half of the year, but it is important to note that the scale of fixed-asset investment remains substantial.
“Fixed-asset investment reached RMB 22.6 trillion in the first half of the year—a remarkably large figure,” he said. As China transitions from a phase of high-speed growth to one of high-quality development, greater emphasis should be placed on the structure, quality, and efficiency of fixed-asset investment. In the first half of the year, investment played a significant role in advancing new quality productive forces and improving people’s livelihoods.
In terms of investment in emerging sectors, high-tech industry investment grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Specifically, investment in integrated circuit manufacturing, electronic specialty materials manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased by 8.8%, 10%, and 24.4%, respectively.
Regarding investment in new infrastructure, internet and related services investment rose by 39.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while investment in information transmission services grew by 25.6%, and investment in optical fiber manufacturing increased by 26.5%.
In the area of livelihood-related investment, there has been a stronger focus on integrating investment in physical assets with investment in human capital. In the first half of the year, agricultural and fishery investment increased by 6.7% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, and investment in environmental monitoring and pollution control services grew by 5.9%.
Looking ahead, Mao Shengyong noted that China’s per capita capital stock remains significantly lower than that of developed countries, and this gap represents considerable potential and room for growth. There is robust investment demand for upgrading traditional industries and advancing emerging and future-oriented industries. Additionally, adapting to demographic shifts—particularly in elderly and childcare services, primary-level healthcare, expanding access to quality education, and comprehensively revitalizing rural areas—presents vast untapped investment opportunities.
He added that the full allocation of RMB 800 billion for major national projects and RMB 200 billion for equipment renewal has already been distributed. Construction under the “Six Networks” initiative is being coordinated and advanced, and specialized plans—including urban renewal, building a new energy system, and promoting high-quality industrial internet development—are progressively being implemented. Coordinated policy efforts will help stimulate investment vitality and unlock its growth potential.
The real estate sector significantly affects investment, consumption, and employment. Mao Shengyong stated that, based on data from the first half of the year, policy effects are gradually becoming evident, and the property market has shown some positive signs—for example, month-on-month prices of commercial residential units in first-tier cities have risen for four consecutive months, and the nationwide inventory of unsold commercial housing has declined for four straight months.
Editor/melody