Iran’s military stated that Iran has an “ironclad will” to control the Strait and will firmly exercise its authority over any passage not arranged by Iran. The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament declared that if Iran cannot sell oil, no other country will be allowed to do so; and if Iran’s security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure in the region will be safe. Senator Rubio stated that the United States remains willing to negotiate, but Iran will face “consequences” if it violates its commitments. Iran’s former foreign minister asserted that Iran has the capability to seize U.S. military bases in the Gulf region and warned Ukraine against supplying drones.
The U.S.-Iran conflict is escalating further along the trajectory of 'attacking vessels → striking infrastructure → retaliating against U.S. interests → threatening oil supplies.'
According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said on Wednesday, the 22nd, that from now on, every time Iran fires upon vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will bomb and destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant. Later that Wednesday, during the U.S. stock market’s midday trading session, Trump further stated that the United States has already prevailed over Iran and does not need the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the U.S. would produce oil in cooperation with Venezuela.
Iran’s military issued a firm response to Trump’s threats, stating that if the United States strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran will retaliate by targeting energy and other infrastructure in the region linked to U.S. interests.
On the same day, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the United States remains open to negotiations with Iran, but if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. military operations will persist. Iran emphasized its capability to **** target it chooses' and declared it would not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be used once again as a tool to threaten Iran. Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf issued an even more market-disruptive warning: 'Either everyone can sell oil, or no one can.'
As Trump expands potential targets from military installations to infrastructure such as bridges and power plants, the logic of retaliation in the U.S.-Iran conflict is clearly intensifying. Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki also stated that Iran has the capability to seize U.S. military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and warned Ukraine against supplying drones to Middle Eastern countries and the United States, adding that Ukrainian military facilities and President Zelenskyy’s official residence could become 'legitimate targets.'
Trump Warns Iran Against Firing on Vessels in Strait of Hormuz; U.S. May Strike Tehran
On the 22nd, Trump posted on social media that if Iran fires on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz—whether using missiles, rockets, drones, or any other weapons—the United States will 'bomb and destroy a bridge or power plant.'
Trump specifically emphasized that the targeted facilities could be located within Tehran or near the capital.
This statement signifies that the U.S. threat, previously limited to Iranian military targets and related installations, is now expanding to include transportation and energy infrastructure.
Trump’s warning came shortly after the U.S. Central Command completed a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets, with U.S. military operations against Iran having continued over multiple nights. U.S. officials stated that these operations aim to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and control the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central flashpoint in the current U.S.-Iran conflict.
The United States maintains that Iran must not restrict international commercial shipping through force, threats, or tolls; Iran, for its part, emphasizes that security in the Strait of Hormuz must be led by Iran and demands that passing vessels coordinate with Iranian authorities.
Iranian military: Iran possesses an 'iron will' to control the strait
According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, a source from the Iranian military stated on the 22nd that if the United States strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran would retaliate by targeting energy and other infrastructure in the region linked to U.S. interests.
The source added that over the past ten days, the United States 'should have fully realized that Iran has the capability to **** target it chooses.'
Iran also stated that regarding the exercise of control over the Strait of Hormuz, it possesses an 'iron will' and will not allow the strait to once again become a tool used to threaten Iran.
The Iranian military stated that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz can pass safely if they coordinate with Iranian authorities and accept relevant arrangements; otherwise, Iran will 'resolutely exercise its control over the strait.'
This means that Trump’s threat of 'reciprocal retaliation' has been swiftly met with a counter-response from Iran.
If the United States strikes Iranian bridges and power plants, Iran may target U.S. energy infrastructure, military logistics, and other related facilities in the Middle East in retaliation. As both sides continue to expand the scope of potential targets, there is a risk that the conflict could spill over from the issue of Strait of Hormuz shipping security into the broader Gulf region’s infrastructure network.
Speaker of Iran’s Parliament: If Iran cannot sell oil, no other country will be allowed to sell it.
Compared to the Iranian military’s threat to retaliate against U.S. infrastructure, the latest remarks by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf directly escalate the risk of conflict toward global oil supply.
According to reports, Karibaf posted on social media on the 22nd: "The logic of this war is very clear: either everyone can sell oil, or no one can. If we cannot sell oil in our region, no other country will be allowed to do so either."
Karibaf also stated that if Iran's security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe.
He further asserted that the security of the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of U.S. military forces in the region and reiterated that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to their pre-war state.
"Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state" signals that Iran’s message extends beyond a short-term military threat.
Based on Iran’s statements, even if the current military tensions eventually subside, the shipping rules, military presence, and energy transport dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz could undergo long-term changes.
Rubio: The U.S. remains open to negotiations, but violations of commitments will incur 'consequences'
In parallel with Trump’s tough rhetoric, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said on the 22nd during his attendance at ASEAN-related meetings in the Philippines that the United States remains willing to negotiate with Iran, provided that Iran honors its commitments.
Rubio warned that if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will continue taking military action.
"We are willing to negotiate, but if Iran continues to violate its commitments, there will be consequences," Rubio said.
Rubio also noted that several countries have expressed interest in participating in efforts to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but due to domestic legislative procedures or issues related to international organization mandates, none have formally joined the initiative yet.
He stated that the United States does not require participation from these countries but believes their involvement would be 'beneficial,' particularly as some possess specialized capabilities such as mine clearance. Rubio also emphasized that a significant portion of the oil and energy transported through the Strait of Hormuz ultimately flows to Asia, and therefore Asian countries have their own interests in helping to safeguard navigational security.
Regarding China, Rubio noted that Beijing has publicly opposed imposing tolls on commercial shipping or restricting freedom of navigation, calling this stance 'important.' He did not directly respond to reports suggesting countries like Russia might be providing targeting information to Iran.
Notably, Rubio also accused Iran of deploying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel to Yemen, stating that Iran's actions have fueled a new round of conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi forces.
This implies that, from the U.S. perspective, Iran’s activities in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi operations in the Red Sea are collectively exerting broader regional pressure.
Former Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran Has the Capability to Seize U.S. Military Bases in the Gulf Region
Iranian hardline rhetoric extends beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
According to China Central Television (CCTV), former Iranian Foreign Minister and current member of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian Mottaki, recently responded to U.S. threats of ground operations against Iran by stating that Iran possesses ground combat capabilities and could seize U.S. military bases in countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Mottaki added that local populations in these regions might also support Iranian military operations.
If this threat escalates into actual military action, it would signify that the risk of U.S.-Iran conflict could intensify from airstrikes, missile, and drone engagements to direct ground-based threats against U.S. military installations in the Middle East.
Currently, the United States maintains a substantial military presence in the Gulf region, with military facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf states forming a critical logistical and command network for U.S. forces in the Middle East. Iran has previously demonstrated its ability to strike U.S. military installations using missiles and drones.
Iran warns Ukraine: Providing drones will make its facilities targets for strikes
Mottaki also issued a warning to Ukraine.
According to China Central Television (CCTV), he stated that Ukraine should not continue supplying drones to Middle Eastern countries and the United States, otherwise Ukrainian military facilities and President Zelenskyy’s official residence could become “legitimate targets for strikes.”
This statement further expands the geographical scope of Iran’s publicly declared threats.
In Iran’s view, any country providing military support to the United States and its allies may fall within the potential strike zone. This also reflects Iran’s attempt to deter more countries from directly or indirectly participating in U.S. military operations in the Middle East by broadening the range of its deterrent targets.
However, Mottaki’s remarks represent public statements by Iran’s former foreign minister and current parliamentarian and do not equate to an official military decision by the Iranian government. What warrants close attention now is whether such threats will be further incorporated into Iran’s official military and foreign policy.
Prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations remain under pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz becoming a potential trigger for escalation
As military threats continue to escalate, diplomatic space between the United States and Iran is also narrowing.
Trump previously stated that Iran was “eager to meet,” but the United States had no interest in talks until Iran was ready for “meaningful negotiations.” On the 22nd, Rubio reiterated that the United States had not closed the door to negotiations, but U.S. military operations would not automatically cease due to Iran’s expressed willingness to negotiate.
The issue lies in the clear divergence between the two sides’ understanding of the “preconditions for negotiations.”
The United States has demanded that Iran cease threatening navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and accept the arrangements proposed by the U.S.; Iran, however, contends that U.S. military strikes themselves are the root cause of regional insecurity and insists on its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, any attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the infrastructure strikes threatened by Trump; conversely, any U.S. strike on Iranian infrastructure—such as bridges or power plants—could provoke retaliatory attacks by Iran against U.S. and allied regional infrastructure.
The U.S.-Iran conflict is entering a dangerous cycle of escalation: shipping incidents prompt military strikes, which expand to include infrastructure targets, and infrastructure strikes could then trigger broader regional retaliation.
For energy markets, the continued escalation of risks in the Strait of Hormuz means that global oil and natural gas supply chains will remain subject to significant uncertainty. Should the situation in the strait escalate from 'disrupted shipping' to large-scale military confrontation, the repercussions would extend far beyond bilateral U.S.-Iran relations and could rapidly transmit to global energy prices, inflation expectations, and financial markets.
Editor/Stephen