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Futu Morning Brief | Trump states the window for U.S.-Iran negotiations is limited, warning that military action would resume if talks collapse; Apple surpasses NVIDIA to reclaim the title of world’s most valuable company; SpaceX and SK Hynix hit new post

Futu News ·  Jul 28 08:08

Macroeconomic Highlights

  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrives in the United States for talks with Trump

According to CCTV International News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in the United States on July 27 local time and traveled by car to Washington, D.C. He is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on July 28 local time. Netanyahu is also expected to attend the memorial service for recently deceased U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

  • U.S. Media: Netanyahu Aims to Convince Trump That Iran Is Still Advancing Its 'Gao Shan' Nuclear Program

According to The New York Post, citing unnamed sources, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to provide U.S. officials with intelligence indicating that Iran is accelerating nuclear facility construction at Fordow and that Tehran is being dishonest about its stated willingness to continue peace negotiations. Netanyahu will meet with U.S. President Trump on Monday local time, and discussions on Iran’s nuclear program and potential military conflict are expected to dominate their talks.

Sources added that Israel will also present evidence showing Iran is rebuilding its missile and drone programs, which had previously been severely damaged by repeated U.S. airstrikes. The intelligence will ultimately demonstrate that Iran is not seriously considering abandoning its nuclear ambitions or missile program in ceasefire negotiations with the United States. In addition to Iran’s suspicious activities, Netanyahu will also brief Trump on progress made in maintaining ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.

  • Trump: Military action against Iran will resume if diplomatic efforts fail

On July 27, U.S. President Trump told Axios News that he had decided to suspend planned U.S. strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance. He emphasized, however, that if diplomacy fails, he may order the resumption of military action against Iran. Trump stated, “We are engaged in very deep negotiations with Iran. If they don’t work out, we will return to very strong military action.” When asked how much time he would allow for diplomatic efforts, Trump replied, “Not much. Either rapid progress is made, or it will be a complete failure.”

  • Trump: The U.S. Should Have the World's Lowest Interest Rates

On Monday, U.S. President Trump, when discussing issues related to the Federal Reserve, stated that Fed Chair Volcker is excellent but must address problems within the committee. He expressed confidence that Volcker will do the right thing and said he knows what Volcker wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump remarked that rates should be lower and that the United States should have the world’s lowest interest rates. He also noted that costs are falling rapidly.

  • Morgan Stanley: Investors Increase Long Positions in the U.S. Dollar Ahead of Fed Meeting

Citing data, Morgan Stanley strategists said investors have increased long positions in the U.S. dollar and short positions in the British pound ahead of this week’s policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. “Options pricing data shows investors have added long positions in the U.S. Dollar Index and short positions in the pound,” strategists Molly Nickolin, David Adams, and Andrew Watrous wrote on Monday. “Options data points to long dollar positioning, and futures market data also indicates net long dollar positions,” they added. “Asset managers are primarily long the euro and short the pound, while leveraged funds are mostly long the pound and short the New Zealand dollar.”

  • Citadel Securities: Waller May Surprise Markets with a Rate Hike This Week

Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—an unexpected move that would bolster Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation.

In a report, Frank Flett, Head of Macro Strategy at the firm, wrote that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would reinforce Warsh’s repeated commitment to restoring price stability and signal that policymakers are no longer relying on pre-announcing every policy move. “The market may once again be underestimating the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate hike this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while underscoring the Fed’s independence.

  • CME Group launches single-stock futures, enabling investors to trade stocks like SpaceX and Micron Technology nearly 23 hours a day

On July 27, CME Group launched cash-settled single-stock futures based on 55 U.S. equities, along with micro contracts based on 22 stocks, marking the exchange’s entry into a market designed to allow investors to engage in leveraged long and short trading around the clock.

These contracts trade on CME Group's Globex platform from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon, with a one-hour daily maintenance break, enabling investors to respond to earnings reports and other market-moving events outside regular U.S. stock market hours.

  • U.S. Trade Representative Greer: New Tariffs Will Not Cause Additional Economic Impact

U.S. Trade Representative Greer said on Monday local time that the newly implemented Section 301 tariff measures would not impose additional economic impacts beyond what has already been absorbed. Greer stated that the new tariffs imposed by President Trump on 60 trading partners might not have an economic effect, partly because the rates of 10% or 12.5% are similar to previous global tariff actions.

Greer noted that the new Section 301 tariffs apply to a narrower set of countries compared to the previously imposed temporary 10% tariffs, which were broadly applied. However, the agency indicated that the new tariffs would still cover 99.4% of U.S. imports.

  • U.S. Media: Trump Administration Nears Finalization of Voluntary AI Review Framework

According to The Information, three people familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration is finalizing a voluntary framework requiring AI companies to submit their most advanced models to the government before releasing them to the public. These individuals said the White House Office of the National Cyber Director distributed a draft of the framework to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google (GOOG.O) about two weeks ago, and the three companies jointly submitted their proposed revisions.

An executive order on AI signed by Trump in early June set August 1 as the deadline for establishing this framework, which aims to create a more structured review process for powerful new AI systems capable of rapidly identifying cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Two people familiar with the matter said that, as the deadline approaches, some AI companies have expressed concerns during meetings with White House agencies about how the framework will define frontier models and whether it will differentiate between closed-source and open-source models.

Another unresolved issue is how truly voluntary the framework will be in practice, particularly following the White House’s decision to impose export controls on Anthropic. The Trump administration maintains that compliance with the framework is not mandatory.

U.S. Stock Market Update

  • The three major indices ended mixed, with AI application software stocks advancing while optical communication and memory-related stocks declined.

On Monday (July 29), the three major U.S. equity indices closed mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.18%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.02%.

$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Stocks moved in divergent directions: AMD dropped more than 5%, NVIDIA fell nearly 5%, Micron Technology declined over 2%, SpaceX and Tesla each fell more than 1%, while Google rose over 2%, Microsoft climbed nearly 2%, and Apple gained more than 1%.

$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$Most Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 2.51%. Alibaba, PDD Holdings, JD.com, and Trip.com all gained over 2%, while Legend Biotech plunged more than 13%, United Microelectronics fell over 2%, and Taiwan Semiconductor declined more than 1%.

$AI Application Software Stocks (LIST23492.US)$Continued gains, with Shopify up over 11%, Palantir rising 7%, SAP SE and ServiceNow climbing nearly 7%, Salesforce surging over 6%, and Adobe and Applovin each gaining more than 5%.

$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$Stocks declined, with SanDisk down over 11%, SK Hynix falling more than 7%, and Western Digital and Seagate Technology each dropping over 4%.

$Optical Communications (LIST23979.US)$The sector led losses, with Lumentum down nearly 7%, Coherent falling close to 4%, and Marvell Technology, Corning, and Credo each declining over 2%.

$Cryptocurrency-related stocks (LIST20010.US)$Most stocks rose, with Bitmine Immersion up over 13%, Strategy gaining nearly 8%, Coinbase climbing close to 6%, Circle rising over 5%, while Hut 8 fell nearly 5%, and IREN and MARA each dropped over 2%.

Stock-specific news

  • Apple's market capitalization surpasses NVIDIA to reclaim the title of the world's most valuable company

On Monday local time,$Apple (AAPL.US)$surpassedNVIDIA (NVDA.US)to reclaim the title of the world’s most valuable company by closing market capitalization for the first time since April 2025. NVIDIA shares fell nearly 5% on Monday, bringing its market value down to $4.77 trillion, as investors expressed concerns over the massive costs associated with AI infrastructure development, dragging down the broader AI chip sector. Meanwhile, Apple shares rose 1%, lifting its market capitalization to $4.95 trillion; the company is set to release its highly anticipated earnings report after market close on Thursday.

NVIDIA has held the top spot in global market capitalization since taking it from Microsoft in June 2025, briefly touching a $5 trillion valuation in October last year. So far in 2026, NVIDIA’s stock has gained only 4%, compared with Apple’s 24% increase. Apple has outperformed the broader market, as investors have welcomed its cautious approach to AI-related capital expenditures—preferring to lease computing power rather than build its own infrastructure.

  • UK Media: NVIDIA Bets $5 Billion on AI Project by OpenAI Co-Founder

According to the Financial Times,NVIDIA (NVDA.US)NVIDIA has agreed to invest $5 billion in Safe Superintelligence (SSI), an artificial intelligence startup led by OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever, further strengthening the chipmaker’s partnership with one of Silicon Valley’s most closely watched AI companies. NVIDIA and SSI announced the deal on Monday as part of establishing a “long-term partnership,” under which the startup will adopt NVIDIA’s latest Vera Rubin hardware.

According to informed sources, NVIDIA has agreed to invest approximately $5 billion. Such substantial commitments are typically contingent upon the startup achieving certain key milestones. Both companies declined to comment on the financial terms of the deal, describing the investment only as “significant.” The funding will help SSI build the computing capacity needed to leverage a research breakthrough it claims to have achieved. The company stated that this investment would enable SSI to increase its available computing capacity tenfold within the next 12 months.

  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visits Capitol Hill to discuss AI-related issues

NVIDIA (NVDA.US)The company disclosed on Monday that its CEO, Jensen Huang, will meet with members of Congress in Washington to discuss how the U.S. can maintain its global leadership in artificial intelligence. A spokesperson for the chipmaker said Huang would engage with bipartisan lawmakers on Capitol Hill to explore the latest developments in AI technology. The spokesperson added, “Jensen Huang’s visit to Washington will include meetings with bipartisan leaders from both the House and Senate to discuss America’s leadership in AI, including issues related to dominance in open-source AI technologies.”

According to his schedule, Huang is set to meet on Tuesday with Senator Mark Warner, the Democratic leader of the Senate Intelligence Committee. The senator had previously expressed strong concerns about associated security risks following last week’s incident in which an OpenAI model autonomously initiated a cyberattack. Senator Warner’s office has confirmed the meeting.

  • SK Hynix fell more than 7% in the previous trading session, hitting a record low since its listing—showing complete 'immunity' to AI-related positive news

$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$The stock closed down over 7% in the previous trading session at $143.02 per share, giving the company a total market capitalization of $1.04 trillion and marking its lowest price since listing. Trading below its IPO price of $149, it ultimately settled at $143.02. With this decline, SK Hynix joins companies such as SpaceX as one of the first among this year’s largest U.S. IPOs to trade below its offering price.

On the 25th, South Korea’s presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae, announced that Korean enterprises had secured semiconductor cooperation deals worth a total of $950 billion with global tech giants, leveraging the San Francisco AI Summit as an opportunity. Analysts noted that repeated instances of positive news failing to lift markets indicate that global investors are no longer responding favorably to AI-related catalysts. Additionally, NVIDIA’s credit default swap costs recorded their largest-ever increase, raising concerns about circular financing triggered by AI infrastructure deals.

  • ASML Holding dropped nearly 6% in the previous trading session, amid reports that domestically produced DUV lithography machines have entered small-scale production

According to The Information, a Shanghai-based Chinese company has started small-scale production of immersion DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography systems. The unnamed company plans to deliver five units this year and expects annual output to reach approximately 20 immersion DUV lithography machines by 2027.

Although this figure may not seem large, it marks a significant step forward for China in independently developing DUV lithography machines and reducing its reliance on…$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$marked a significant step forward in reducing reliance on third-party suppliers. Following the report's release, ASML Holding's share price dropped nearly 8%, and major U.S. semiconductor equipment companies also plunged.

  • Amazon enters the satellite communications race: Plans to deploy 5,000 satellites targeting mobile device users

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The company plans to launch a constellation of over 5,000 satellites to provide mobile phone communication services to consumers globally. As Amazon intensifies its investments, it aims to challenge Elon Musk’s Starlink. On Monday, Amazon stated it has filed an application with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) seeking approval to deploy the constellation by 2028. According to Amazon, the system will offer voice calls, text messaging, data services, and emergency communications.

  • Microsoft launches its first cybersecurity model

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$On Monday, Microsoft unveiled its first cybersecurity model, MAI-Cyber-1-Flash, along with an agent-based security system named Project Perception. Microsoft CEO Nadella stated, “MAI-Cyber-1-Flash is our first cybersecurity model built from the ground up to identify the most challenging vulnerabilities in complex codebases. When used in conjunction with MDASH (Microsoft Security Multi-model Agent Scanning Platform), it delivers world-class performance at half the cost of leading models.”

  • AstraZeneca reaffirms its $80 billion revenue target for 2030, driven by oncology drugs in Q2 growth

$AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$Second-quarter revenue reached $15.38 billion, with oncology segment revenue increasing 15% year-over-year. The company is progressing toward its $80 billion revenue target for 2030. The CEO expressed confidence in the R&D pipeline, noting that more than half of the plan to launch 20 new drugs by 2030 has already been completed, with new products such as Baxfendy and Etcamah entering the market.

  • Navitas Semiconductor reported Q2 2026 revenue of $10 million, a 28% year-over-year decline; diluted loss per share was $0.95.

$Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS.US)$Q2 2026 revenue was $0.10 billion, down 28% year-over-year; diluted loss per share was $0.95. Net loss amounted to $228 million. Non-GAAP net loss was $9 million, an improvement of 5% year-over-year.

Third-quarter 2026 net revenue is expected to increase to $13.5 million, plus or minus $0.5 million, with the midpoint representing a 28% sequential increase and marking a return to year-over-year growth. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 39.7%, plus or minus 100 basis points, and non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to range between $15.5 million and $17.5 million.

  • Cadence Design Systems reports second-quarter revenue of $1.58 billion, slightly above market expectations

$Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US)$Second-quarter revenue was $1.58 billion, compared to analysts’ expectation of $1.57 billion; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $2.11, versus analysts’ forecast of $2.06. The company now expects full-year revenue of $6.26–6.34 billion, up from its prior guidance of $6.13–6.23 billion.

The company now expects full-year adjusted EPS of $8.05 to $8.15, up from its previous forecast of $7.58 to $7.95. For the third quarter, it projects revenue of $1.60 billion to $1.63 billion, compared with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.55 billion. Adjusted EPS for the quarter is expected to be $2.01 to $2.07, versus analysts' estimates of $1.95.

  • BuzzFeed Initiates Restructuring, Cutting Workforce by Approximately 35%

The board of directors of BuzzFeed, a prominent U.S.-based digital media platform, approved a restructuring plan on July 22, aiming to reduce approximately 35% of its global full-time employees and dedicated outsourced personnel across all regions and business lines to lower operating costs. The company estimates restructuring-related expenses at $6.5 million to $8.5 million, which will be primarily recorded in its third-quarter financial results. BuzzFeed anticipates annual cost savings of approximately $29 million to $32 million beginning in the third quarter. The majority of these restructuring expenses are cash-based and are expected to be fully paid by the end of the fourth quarter. This workforce reduction is intended to drive the company toward profitability and generate positive cash flow.

  • NVIDIA leads formation of the 'Open Secure AI Alliance'

NVIDIA (NVDA.US)United$Palantir (PLTR.US)$$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)$$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$Together with Hugging Face, they have established the "Open Security AI Alliance," aimed at enhancing the security of open-source AI. The alliance will share open models, datasets, and cybersecurity tools, while calling on policymakers to support open AI through complementary safeguards rather than imposing broad restrictions.

  • Anthropic Clarifies Position: Never Advocated Banning Open-Weight AI Models

Anthropic stated that it has never advocated for a ban on open-weight AI models, refuting recent claims to that effect. CEO Dario Amodei said the company does not agree with the view that open-weight models are inherently more conducive to developing AI safety safeguards.

Top 20 by Trading Volume

Hong Kong Market Outlook

  • Northbound investors reduced their holdings in Hong Kong stocks by nearly HK$1.6 billion, net buying Meituan for over HK$1.2 billion and net selling Xiaomi Group for more than HK$1.2 billion.

On Monday, July 27, southbound funds net sold HK$1.574 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks.

$Meituan-W(03690.HK)$$Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$$KBTL (01888.HK)$They recorded net purchases of HK$1.217 billion, HK$616 million, and HK$604 million, respectively;

$Xiaomi Group-W(01810.HK)$$SMIC (00981.HK)$$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$They were net sold off by HK$1.232 billion, HK$698 million, and HK$675 million, respectively.

  • Kimi K3 Open Day: Model weights, technical report, and key infrastructure technologies released simultaneously

According to the Moonlight Dark Side Kimi official account, the company has released the model weights and technical report for Kimi K3, and open-sourced the key infrastructure technologies that underpin its training: MoonEP, FlashKDA, and AgentEnv. The aim is to accelerate the deployment and widespread adoption of cutting-edge AI, while advancing AGI research.

  • InnoLight Technology has set its Hong Kong listing price at HK$980 per share.

$InnoLight Technology (03308.HK)$According to an announcement on the Hong Kong Exchange, the offering price for its Hong Kong listing has been set at HK$980 per share. The allocation results of the public offering will be announced on July 29. The company will be listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 30.

  • CSPC Pharma: H1 profit expected to rise 132%–143% year-on-year

$CSPC Pharma (01093.HK)$Issued a profit alert, expecting attributable profit for the six months ended June 30 to be approximately RMB 5.9 billion to RMB 6.2 billion, representing an increase of 132% to 143% year-over-year. CSPC noted that the expected profit growth is primarily due to a significant year-over-year increase in licensing fee income, with USD 840 million of upfront payments expected to be recognized as licensing revenue in the second quarter of this year, contributing substantially to the group’s income. Additionally, sales from finished pharmaceuticals rose by approximately 10% during the period year-over-year, continuing to provide solid support for the group’s overall profitability.

  • Laopu Gold: Expects first-half net profit to increase by 83%–85% year-over-year

$Laopu Gold (06181.HK)$The company forecasts adjusted net profit for the first half of 2026, measured under non-IFRS standards, to be approximately RMB 4.31 billion to RMB 4.36 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 83%–85%. The company stated that the growth is primarily driven by the continued expansion of its brand influence, which has established a dominant market position and boosted overall revenue; ongoing product optimization and iteration, ensuring sustained revenue growth; and improved high-end customer spending, gold jewelry consumption, and repurchase rates, all contributing to enhanced performance.

Today's Focus

  • Keywords: Corning, Coca-Cola, Seagate Technology earnings; ADP

On the economic data front, the U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, and The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July will be released.

20:15 U.S. Weekly ADP Employment Change (in ten thousands) for the Week Ending July 11

22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July

22:00 U.S. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July

Regarding financial results,$Boeing (BA.US)$Corning (GLW.US) $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$$Unilever (UK) (UL.US)$Announced latest earnings in U.S. pre-market trading,$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$$Ford Motor(F.US)$$KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$$Seagate Technology (STX.US)$Visa (V.US),released its earnings report after the U.S. market close.

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