According to media reports, OPEC+ plans to increase its September oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day on August 2, with no further increases scheduled for the remainder of this year. Representatives noted that uncertainty surrounding the scale of oil supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict has complicated OPEC+’s decision-making on output policy.
As the oil-producing alliance continues to assess the rapidly evolving impact of the Iran conflict on global oil supply, OPEC+ is expected to pause further increases in production quotas after completing its final output hike in September.
According to two delegates cited by Bloomberg, OPEC+ currently plans to approve an agreement during its virtual meeting on August 2 to raise its September oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day. This increase will complete the current round of output hikes, and OPEC+ has no plans to raise production further for the remainder of this year, though specific arrangements may be adjusted depending on developments.
For several months, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been gradually increasing the amount of oil its members are permitted to produce and had already laid out a roadmap in May this year to extend these production increases through September.
In practice, however, the Iran conflict has rendered these production increases largely symbolic, as key Middle Eastern members of the group have been forced to cut back some of their output and exports.
During the conflict, Iran has been attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, creating uncertainty about the scale of oil supply losses, complicating OPEC+'s efforts to set production policy, and further exacerbating oil price volatility.
International oil prices have swung sharply during this intermittent conflict. Last week, Brent crude futures briefly surged above $100 per barrel, but prices fell for three consecutive days following a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, settling at $82 per barrel as of this report.
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