Macro News
Informal Ceasefire Collapses; Iran Launches Missile Attack on U.S. Military Base This Morning
July 29 — According to foreign media reports, U.S. officials stated that Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, which were intercepted by Jordanian defenses. Notably, this attack marks the first time Iran has targeted a U.S. base in the region with missiles since the United States suspended its strikes against Iran last Friday.
U.S. Central Command subsequently confirmed that at 5:45 p.m. Eastern Time on July 28 (5:45 a.m. Beijing Time on July 29), Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. Central Command stated that U.S. forces remain vigilant and are on high alert.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Proposal Made to Oman for Negotiations on Temporary Shipping Lanes in the Strait of Hormuz
According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran has proposed negotiations with Oman regarding a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. If agreed upon, this lane would replace the current north-south corridors. The Deputy Foreign Minister added that Omani officials suggested designing a corridor jointly controlled—50% by Iran and 50% by Oman—but emphasized, “This does not address Iran’s concerns. We maintain that the inbound maritime corridor must be fully under Iranian control, and part of the outbound corridor should also fall under Iranian control. If they accept this arrangement, we will proceed to the next stage.”
“We will never recognize the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz—not even for one hour. If Oman does not accept Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the strait will remain closed, and we are prepared to resume hostilities. Under no circumstances do we recognize the southern corridor. Our proposal is clear: one corridor through the strait must be entirely under Iranian control, and part of the other corridor must also be under Iranian control. Iran will not accept any alternative方案.”
Significant Divergence Among Traders Ahead of Fed Decision; Federal Funds Rate Futures Positions Hit Record High
As traders position themselves for the risk that the Federal Reserve may begin raising interest rates as early as Wednesday, futures positions linked to the Fed’s benchmark rate have surged to a record high. Open interest in federal funds rate futures contracts settling after this policy announcement has surpassed the previous record set by the October 2024 contract, when market expectations for the Fed meeting outcome were similarly divided.
According to data from CME Group, open interest reached 909,714 contracts last Friday and further increased to 967,136 contracts on Monday. This trading activity reflects significant divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this week is 69.5%.
According to CME Group's 'FedWatch Tool': The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate in July is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 30.5%. By September, the probability of unchanged rates drops to 23.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase rises to 56.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stands at 20.2%.
Reuters Survey: Analysts Cut Gold Price Forecasts for First Time Since End-2023, but Central Bank Buying Seen Limiting Declines
A Reuters survey shows that, following a sharp decline in gold prices from their record highs in January, analysts have downgraded their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023. However, most still expect support from central bank purchases and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In a survey conducted over the past three weeks among 29 analysts and traders, the median forecast for the gold price in 2026 was $4,509 per ounce—down from $4,916 three months ago and marking the first downward revision in 11 quarters.
The average forecast price for 2027 is $4,610, down from $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January but plunged sharply in the second quarter as escalating tensions in Iran stoked energy-driven inflation and heightened expectations of interest rate hikes, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2013. Spot gold has declined approximately 22% since the outbreak of the conflict.
U.S. Stock Market Update
On Tuesday, July 29, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed. At market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.03% to 52,747.32 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.22% to 24,876.91 points; and the S&P 500 Index gained 0.21% to 7,428.78 points.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Stocks were mixed: Alphabet and SpaceX rose more than 2%, Microsoft gained over 1%, Apple advanced nearly 1%, and NVIDIA posted a modest increase; Micron Technology and AMD dropped over 8%, Intel declined nearly 6%, and Tesla and Amazon edged lower.
$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$Most stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 1.08%. JD.com climbed nearly 3%, while Trip.com, Nio, and PDD Holdings each gained over 1%. United Microelectronics fell over 9%, ASE Technology dropped more than 7%, and Taiwan Semiconductor declined nearly 2%.
$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$Down 4.49%, with the majority of the 30 constituent stocks declining. AMD and Micron Technology fell over 8%, Marvell Technology and Applied Materials declined nearly 8%, Intel dropped nearly 6%, and ASML Holding lost over 4%.
$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$All stocks declined, with Western Digital plunging over 14%, SK Hynix and Rambus falling nearly 9%, and Seagate Technology dropping over 8%.
$Optical Communications (LIST23979.US)$Stocks weakened across the board, with Corning sliding over 12%, Coherent tumbling over 10%, Lumentum falling over 8%, and Credo, Astera, and Marvell Technology each declining nearly 8%.
$AI Application Software Stocks (LIST23492.US)$Gains continued, with Workday surging over 8%, ServiceNow and Adobe rising nearly 5%, Salesforce climbing over 4%, Applovin gaining over 1%, Shopify advancing nearly 3%, Palantir dropping over 6%, and Snowflake edging down nearly 1%.
Stock-specific news
SK Hynix reports a 557% surge in operating profit.
$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$In its earnings release on Wednesday, SK Hynix reported that robust demand for advanced memory chips—driven by major tech firms’ aggressive investments in AI data centers—propelled its second-quarter operating profit to a record KRW 60.5 trillion (approximately USD 41.62 billion), a 557% increase from KRW 9.2 trillion a year earlier. However, this figure fell short of the market consensus of KRW 64 trillion, primarily because the company’s higher exposure to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips limited its ability to fully capitalize on the strong price rally in conventional memory chips. This has intensified concerns that the AI-driven boom fueling the semiconductor industry may be losing momentum. Revenue also missed expectations, coming in at KRW 79 trillion versus analysts’ forecast of KRW 83.85 trillion.
SK Hynix: Plans to significantly expand HBM4 supply capacity in the second half of 2026; HBM4E samples were delivered in the first half of the year.
$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$Plans to substantially increase high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) production capacity in the second half of 2026. Has signed long-term agreements (LTAs) with ten major industry clients for chip supply; DRAM shipments in Q3 2026 are expected to rise by approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter compared to Q2 2026; NAND flash shipments in Q3 2026 are projected to see a modest increase, rising by a low single-digit percentage (1%–4%) compared to Q2 2026.
The long-term supply agreements incorporate differentiated pricing mechanisms, with prices varying based on customer type and chip product characteristics, helping to mitigate sharp cyclical fluctuations in memory pricing. These agreements will significantly enhance the certainty of mid- to long-term order visibility and demand stability for the company.
$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$According to financial disclosures, HBM4 commenced volume shipments in the second quarter and production will be expanded in the second half of the year. HBM4E samples were delivered in the first half of the year, fabricated using an optimal process technology that balances technical maturity and mass-production stability.
Google is reportedly committed to providing guarantees worth $44 billion for data center leasing projects.
According to a report by The Information,Google-C (GOOG.US)It was disclosed last week that the company has agreed to assume up to $44 billion in third-party data center lease obligations in the event of tenant default. This figure has risen from $6.5 billion as of the end of September, reflecting Google’s efforts to offer its alternative AI chips—competing with NVIDIA—as solutions to companies such as Anthropic. Google has taken on these commitments, known as “backstop guarantees,” to scale sales of its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).
Two sources familiar with the matter revealed that Google assumed these commitments based on the expectation that revenue generated from TPU sales would exceed the financial obligations arising from guaranteeing leases for data centers housing these chips. One of the sources stated that company executives are confident this financial assessment is favorable to Alphabet. According to reports, Alphabet has provided lease guarantees for approximately 2.4 gigawatts of capacity across roughly ten projects. None of these projects have been completed yet, meaning Alphabet’s guarantees have not yet taken effect.
Multiple Apple AI-powered smart home devices are poised for launch.
Noted Apple insider Mark Gurman stated in a post that$Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple plans to soon introduce a new smart home hub centered around an upgraded Siri AI, marking the start of its latest wave of home product offerings. Apple also intends to release a new Apple TV set-top box and an upgraded HomePod mini.
Corning's Q3 guidance slightly missed expectations, with optical communications business growth slowing
U.S.-based specialty glass and optical fiber manufacturerCorning (GLW.US) Core sales in its third-quarter revenue guidance came in slightly below Wall Street expectations, and the growth rate of its optical communications business—the company’s key growth engine—has slowed compared to previous quarters, raising market concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure investment.
NXP Semiconductors reports Q2 revenue of $3.5 billion, above market expectations
NXP Semiconductors reported Q2 revenue of $3.5 billion versus analyst expectations of $3.46 billion; Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were $3.02, compared to $1.75 in the same period last year; Q2 adjusted free cash flow (FCF) was $791 million versus analyst expectations of $949.3 million.
The company expects Q3 revenue of $3.65–3.85 billion versus analyst expectations of $3.71 billion; Q3 EPS is expected to be $3.21–3.64, with adjusted EPS projected at $3.89–4.32 (analyst expectation: $3.71); Q3 adjusted gross margin is forecast at 58%–59% versus analyst expectation of 58.6%; Q3 adjusted profit is expected to be $1.31–1.45 billion versus analyst expectation of $1.35 billion.
Seagate Technology shares rose nearly 8% in after-hours trading, as its latest earnings report significantly beat expectations
$Seagate Technology (STX.US)$Fourth fiscal quarter revenue was $3.65 billion, up 48% year-over-year; analysts had expected $3.49 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth fiscal quarter were $5.71 versus analyst expectations of $5.08. Adjusted operating margin for the fourth fiscal quarter was 44.6%, compared to analyst expectations of 41.9%. The company forecasts first fiscal quarter revenue of $4.0–4.2 billion versus analyst expectations of $3.79 billion. Its stock price surged more than 9% in U.S. after-hours trading before paring gains to 4.45%, closing at $780.59.
Shares of Lucid Group jumped over 21% in the previous trading session following an investment by a Saudi prince
Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia invested $129.5 million to acquire approximately 19.5 million shares of Lucid, bringing his stake to 5%. A spokesperson stated that this investment was made as part of$Lucid Group(LCID.US)$This followed a sharp recent decline in the stock price.
Previously, Lucid Group faced market concerns over potential bankruptcy due to funding pressures and ongoing losses. The company subsequently denied bankruptcy rumors but acknowledged it had engaged restructuring advisor AlixPartners. The announcement caused its stock price to plummet by 57% in a single day. The Saudi prince’s equity investment is now being viewed by the market as a vote of confidence in Lucid’s future, helping to alleviate investor concerns about the company’s financial condition. However, Lucid still faces challenges related to sales growth, profitability, and cash flow pressures.
Skyworks Solutions reported third-quarter revenue of $935 million, exceeding market expectations.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.US)Third-quarter revenue was $935 million, compared to analyst expectations of $924.9 million; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter were $1.08, versus analyst expectations of $1.03; the company forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $1.01 billion and $1.06 billion, compared to analyst expectations of $1.03 billion.
Ford Motor reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.42 for the second quarter, surpassing market expectations.
$Ford Motor(F.US)$Second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.42, compared to analyst expectations of $0.36. Full-year adjusted EBIT is now expected to be between $10 billion and $11 billion, up from the company’s previous guidance of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
Enphase Energy reported second-quarter revenue of $291.9 million, slightly below market expectations.
Photovoltaic inverter supplier$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$Second-quarter revenue was $291.9 million, versus analyst expectations of $292.1 million. Second-quarter capital expenditures were $14.4 million, compared to analyst expectations of $14.1 million.
NXP Semiconductors reports Q2 revenue of $3.5 billion, above market expectations
$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$Second-quarter revenue was $3.5 billion, versus analysts' expectation of $3.46 billion; second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were $3.02, compared to $1.75 in the same period last year; adjusted free cash flow (FCF) for the second quarter was $791 million, below analysts' expectation of $949.3 million. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $3.65 billion and $3.85 billion, compared to analysts' expectation of $3.71 billion.
The company expects third-quarter EPS to range from $3.21 to $3.64, and adjusted EPS to range from $3.89 to $4.32 (analysts' expectation: $3.71); it forecasts third-quarter adjusted gross margin of 58%–59%, versus analysts' expectation of 58.6%; and projects third-quarter adjusted profit of $1.31 billion to $1.45 billion, compared to analysts' expectation of $1.35 billion.
Bloom Energy reported second-quarter revenue of $1.07 billion, exceeding market expectations.
$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter were $0.78, above analysts' expectation of $0.40. Second-quarter revenue was $1.07 billion, surpassing analysts' expectation of $838.7 million. Full-year revenue is now expected to be between $3.9 billion and $4.2 billion, up from the company’s previous guidance of $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion.
Teradyne reported second-quarter net revenue of $1.33 billion, exceeding market expectations.
$Teradyne (TER.US)$Second-quarter net revenue was $1.33 billion, versus analysts' expectation of $1.22 billion; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter were $2.47, compared to analysts' expectation of $2.04. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, versus analysts' expectation of $1.04 billion; and forecasts third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.85–$2.15, compared to analysts' expectation of $1.46.
xAI has launched the Build model for Grok.
xAI has launched the Build model for Grok. The Grok Build model is in early testing and is targeted at SuperGrok Heavy subscribers.
OpenAI and Anthropic employees have jointly signed an open letter urging the U.S. government to establish a mechanism to monitor AI development.
According to foreign media reports, employees at OpenAI and Anthropic are circulating a petition calling on the U.S. government to support the creation of a mechanism to help 'consciously regulate' the pace of artificial intelligence development and prevent the technology from advancing too rapidly. According to sources familiar with the matter and a copy of the petition, staff from several leading AI laboratories have issued an open letter to their peers, urging U.S. support for an international initiative to promote the responsible development of more advanced artificial intelligence systems.
The document warned that the pace of artificial intelligence development could surpass humanity's ability to 'understand or control' it, posing 'real risks,' and cited advances in the field of AI research automation. The petition stated: 'The U.S. government should support an international collaboration to develop the necessary technologies and governance tools to strategically regulate the frontier of automated AI development.'
Jensen Huang calls for support of open-weight artificial intelligence models
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang urged support for open-weight artificial intelligence (AI) models during meetings at multiple U.S. Senate offices, stating that these models are critical to AI safety.
Top 20 by Trading Volume
Hong Kong Market Outlook
Southbound capital reduced its holdings of Hong Kong-listed stocks by nearly HK$2.5 billion, recording net purchases of Xiaomi Group exceeding HK$300 million and net sales of Meituan surpassing HK$900 million.
On Tuesday, July 28, southbound capital recorded net sales of HK$2.494 billion in Hong Kong-listed equities.
$Xiaomi Group-W(01810.HK)$、$Zhipu AI (02513.HK)$received net purchases of HK$358 million and HK$268 million, respectively;
$Meituan-W(03690.HK)$、$Huahong Hongli (01347.HK)$、$SMIC (00981.HK)$faced net sales of HK$924 million, HK$884 million, and HK$682 million, respectively.
Ubtech Robotics: 126,000 shares have been purchased from the market under the H-share incentive plan
$Ubtech Robotics (09880.HK)$Announced in Hong Kong, on July 28, 2026, the trustee of the H-share incentive plan purchased a total of 126,000 H-shares of the Company from the market pursuant to the terms and conditions of the plan, at an average price of approximately HK$79.899 per share, for a total consideration of HK$100.673 million, and holds these shares in trust for the benefit of eligible participants.
Ribo Bio: EMA Approves Phase 2b Clinical Trial of Core Product Vortosiran for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation (SPAF)
RiboBio-B (06938.HK)Announced in Hong Kong, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has approved the initiation of the Phase 2b clinical trial ORBIT-XI-AF evaluating vortosiran (RBD4059)—the world’s first and most advanced small interfering RNA (siRNA) therapy targeting coagulation Factor XI (FXI)—for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (SPAF).
The approval of this Phase 2b multi-regional clinical trial (MRCT) marks a significant milestone for vortosiran and underscores the global development strategy for next-generation anticoagulant therapies. It also enables the Company to advance this program into the next stage of global clinical development.
Zhongji InnoLight's Hong Kong shares commenced grey-market trading today; the Chairman proposed a share repurchase program worth RMB 4–8 billion.
$InnoLight Technology (03308.HK)$Grey-market trading commenced today for its Hong Kong listing. The global offering under this IPO consists of 54.5 million H-shares, priced at no more than HK$1,010 per share, with a board lot size of 50 shares and an estimated minimum subscription cost of approximately HK$51,000.
$InnoLight Technology (03308.HK)$The announcement stated that the company has received a proposal from Liu Sheng, Chairman and President, to repurchase company shares through centralized bidding using its own or self-raised funds, for use in equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans. The total amount allocated for the repurchase will be no less than RMB 4 billion and no more than RMB 8 billion. The repurchase price will not exceed 150% of the average trading price of the company's shares over the 30 trading days prior to the date of the board resolution. The repurchase period will last for 12 months from the date the board approves the proposal.
Today's Focus
Keywords: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, SK Hynix earnings
On the economic data front, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories and U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending July 24 will be released.
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 24 (in 10,000 barrels)
22:30 U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending July 24 (in 10,000 barrels)
On the earnings front, Hong Kong-listed stocks $ASMPT (00522.HK)$ 、 $Standard Chartered Group (02888.HK)$ and $New Oriental-S (09901.HK)$ will release earnings reports.
$Amphenol (APH.US)$、Procter & Gamble (PG.US)、$UBS Group (UBS.US)$、$Vertiv Holdings(VRT.US)$released its earnings report before the U.S. market open,$Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$、$Robinhood(HOOD.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、Qualcomm (QCOM.US)released its earnings report after the U.S. market close.
Regarding IPOs, $InnoLight Technology (03308.HK)$The grey market will open.
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