As of July 29, shares of mainland China-based property developers led the gains. At the time of writing,$RONSHINECHINA (03301.HK)$、$SUNAC (01918.HK)$、$LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK)$、 $YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK)$All rose by more than 5%.
On the news front, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows multiple positive developments in the real estate market in the first half of the year: home prices in first-tier cities have risen month-on-month for four consecutive months, the secondary housing market has seen active transactions, and the inventory of unsold commercial residential floor space has declined for four straight months. Huatai Securities noted that inventory reduction efforts continue to yield results, core city home prices remain on an improving trajectory, and the ongoing development of emerging industries alongside stabilizing rental rates are expected to drive a structural recovery in core city property markets.
Foreign institutions have adopted a marginally more optimistic stance. Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for this year’s home price decline upward due to sustained sales recovery in June and better-than-expected selling prices. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has already undergone a deep adjustment, and with the central government’s directive to 'stabilize the property market effectively,' further supportive policies for the industry are anticipated.
Changjiang Securities noted in a research report that, objectively speaking, although recent real-time transaction volume and price data for the secondary housing market have shown marginal weakening, the fundamentals in key cities—particularly Beijing and Shanghai—performed better than market expectations in the first half of the year. Referring to historical experience, the urgency for introducing strong short-term policies may be relatively low. The firm further indicated that with seasonal weakness leading to a marginal softening in industry fundamentals and major policy-related meetings approaching, capital market attention to real estate policy has once again increased.
Editor/melody