Market Snapshot
Ahead of Wednesday's market open, investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision amid surging oil prices following U.S.-Iran tensions in the Strait. As of this writing, Dow futures were down 0.34%, Nasdaq futures up 0.16%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.17%. U.S. crude oil rose more than 4%, U.S. Treasuries gained, and spot gold fell 0.21% to $4,089 per ounce.
$Star Tech Stocks (LIST2518.US)$Most stocks rose in pre-market trading, with Intel up nearly 1%, and Microsoft and Tesla posting modest gains, while Micron declined slightly.
$Popular Chinese ADRs (LIST2517.US)$Pre-market moves were mixed, with Nio up nearly 3%, and XPeng and Trip.com rising over 2% each.
$AI Application Software Stocks (LIST23492.US)$Pre-market trading was mixed, with ServiceNow down over 1%, while SAP and Snowflake gained more than 1% each.
$Storage Concept (LIST23925.US)$ Performance was mixed: Seagate Technology rose nearly 5% after its earnings release, lifting Western Digital over 3% in pre-market trading on the back of Seagate’s results, while SK Hynix declined over 1%.
Individual Stock News
Microsoft’s short interest has reached a ten-year high, and tonight’s earnings reports from Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are critical.
After the U.S. market close on Tuesday, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ ahead of its earnings release, its short interest rose to the highest level in nearly a decade, as market concerns continued to mount over whether AI-related capital expenditures can translate into revenue growth. Previously, Google-C (GOOG.US) Alphabet, its parent company, reported negative free cash flow and raised its capital expenditure forecast, triggering broad market concerns about excessive AI infrastructure investment by tech giants. This week, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ earnings reports will be released intensively and are viewed as a pivotal catalyst to test the logic behind AI-related capital spending. If these reports fail to validate a clear path to AI monetization, valuation pressures on the tech sector will intensify further, potentially triggering a broader correction in growth stocks.
“As good as it gets”! SK Hynix’s profits surged sixfold, but institutions warn: this could already be the peak.
$SK Hynix (SKHY.US)$ It delivered a record-breaking earnings report, but the market’s reaction was far from unbridled celebration. While analysts acknowledged the company’s strong fundamentals, they also directly highlighted a core concern: this might represent the peak of its performance. Regarding SK hynix’s historic profitability, David Riedel of Riedel Research offered a rare and blunt assessment—‘I think this really is as good as it gets.’ He noted that while the sixfold surge in profitability is indeed impressive, the recent pullback in the stock price simply reflects a normal correction of overheated AI-market speculation. At the same time, he emphasized that SK hynix’s long-term investment thesis remains intact and believes the stock still has significant upside potential.
NVIDIA Bets on In-House CPU to Accelerate Chip Design; EDA Industry Reaches an AI Inflection Point
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) The company stated that its engineers are using internally developed chip design software to design next-generation graphics processing units. It is collaborating with the two leading suppliers of electronic design automation (EDA) software, $Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US)$ and $Synopsys (SNPS.US)$ who are currently optimizing their platforms to run on NVIDIA’s Vera central processing units, thereby accelerating chip design workloads. The chipmaker reported that Cadence’s formal verification platform Jasper and Synopsys VCS—a logic simulation tool used to verify chip designs prior to manufacturing—achieved a 1.5x performance improvement when running on Vera central processing units.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s Kumamoto Fab Resumes Production in Phases Following Earthquake; Detailed Equipment Inspections Still Underway
A powerful 7.1-magnitude earthquake in Japan’s Kumamoto Prefecture briefly raised concerns about disruptions to the semiconductor supply chain. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ stated that personnel evacuation at its local JASM facility has been completed, and both the main factory building and expansion projects remain undamaged. Production has now resumed in phases, with only certain construction activities temporarily halted as a precaution against aftershocks. At this stage, the actual impact of the earthquake on Taiwan Semiconductor’s production and the global semiconductor supply chain is expected to be limited.
Vertiv Holdings Reports Q2 Fiscal 2026 Revenue of $3.274 Billion, Up 24% Year-over-Year
Liquid Cooling Concept Company$Vertiv Holdings(VRT.US)$ In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, total revenue amounted to $3.274 billion, representing a 24% year-over-year increase. Diluted earnings per share stood at $1.27 (compared to $0.83 in the prior period), up 53% year-over-year. Net income reached $498 million, a 54% year-over-year increase. For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company provided net sales guidance of $3.65 billion to $3.85 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance of $1.77 to $1.83. Giordano Albertazzi, CEO of Vertiv, stated: ‘Demand for artificial intelligence and general-purpose computing continues to intensify. With each technological advancement, deployment becomes increasingly complex and infrastructure-intensive. Our deep understanding of how power and thermal infrastructure must scale enables us to move at the pace our customers require. Delivering this velocity demands both foresight and operational precision—and Vertiv excels in both innovation leadership and executional scalability. As we expand globally, our robust pipeline gives us confidence to raise our guidance and reinforces our conviction in sustained strong performance this year and beyond.’
SoFi Technologies fell in pre-market trading, reporting second-quarter fiscal year 2026 revenue of $1.219 billion, up 43% year-over-year.
$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ Total revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 was $1.219 billion, an increase of 43% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.12 (compared to $0.08 in the prior-year period), up 50%. Net income was $157 million, an increase of 61% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income was $160 million, up 65% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.12 (compared to $0.08 in the prior-year period). Anthony Noto, Chief Executive Officer of SoFi, stated: "2026 is shaping up to be a defining year, and our second-quarter results mark a clear inflection point for SoFi. Despite ongoing market uncertainty, our business model continues to demonstrate resilience. Our membership grew 35% year-over-year, and we added a record 2.2 million new products, representing 42% growth."
Procter & Gamble reported fourth-quarter fiscal year 2026 revenue of $21.203 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Procter & Gamble (PG.US) Total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 was $21.203 billion, an increase of 2% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share were $1.26 (compared to $1.48 in the prior-year period), down 15% year-over-year. Net income was $3.044 billion, down 16% year-over-year. Shailesh Jejurikar, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated: "Fiscal year 2026 was a foundational year, during which we continued to deliver sales and profit growth and return significant cash to shareholders despite an exceptionally challenging geopolitical and economic environment. In fiscal year 2027, even amid ongoing volatility, we expect to make progress on these key metrics."
A major U.S. power and energy infrastructure company NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) will invest $100 billion together with asset management firm Brookfield to develop a data center campus in Kentucky.
GlobalFoundries receives $300 million support from the U.S. Department of Commerce to accelerate silicon photonics R&D for AI infrastructure
$GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)$ On July 29, it announced that it has signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce to accelerate the development of next-generation silicon photonics technology. Under the agreement, the Department of Commerce is expected to provide GlobalFoundries with $300 million in funding to advance R&D in advanced optical materials, wafer technologies, and advanced packaging to support next-generation optical interconnect technologies required by AI and high-performance computing data centers. As part of the agreement, the Department of Commerce will also receive approximately 1% equity ownership in GlobalFoundries, enabling U.S. taxpayers to share in the company’s future growth. GlobalFoundries stated it will accelerate the scale-up of silicon photonics manufacturing at its existing facilities in Malta, New York, and Burlington, Vermont.
Global Macro
The Federal Reserve decision arrives tonight! Institutional previews at a glance
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight. Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged, but the policy statement and Chair Waller's remarks at the press conference could still trigger significant asset price volatility. MUFG believes that if the tone of the decision leans hawkish, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could find support; TD Securities warns that if the number of dissenting votes is lower than expected, it may be interpreted as stronger internal consensus, potentially triggering dollar selling. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team notes that 'holding rates steady while delivering a dovish signal' represents the most favorable scenario for equities, with a 28% probability, under which the S&P 500 could rise by 0.5% to 1%; the baseline scenario—no change in rates but maintaining a hawkish stance—carries a 50% probability.
Regarding precious metals, Commerzbank forecasts gold and silver prices to reach $4,500 and $67 per ounce, respectively, by year-end; SIA Wealth Management believes the Fed will not make any major adjustments until as early as September, suggesting gold’s trading range may persist into autumn. ING points out that if U.S. Treasury yields remain low, gold prices could find support, though any hawkish surprise could cap near-term upside potential.
Additionally, Saxo Bank suggests that an unexpected rate hike from the Fed could push the forward rate curve further upward; Goldman Sachs states that even if rates remain unchanged throughout the year, the dollar still faces structural pressures. Sumitomo Mitsui expects hawkish rhetoric could drive USD/JPY toward the 164 level. Overall, market focus tonight will center on the Fed’s projected rate-cut path, internal policy divergence, and Chair Waller’s assessment of inflation and the economic outlook.
Iran launches surprise strike on U.S. military bases in the Middle East; oil prices surge, U.S. stock index futures come under pressure
On July 29, Iran launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on U.S. military installations in the Middle East. U.S. Central Command confirmed all missiles were intercepted. This assault ended a brief ceasefire and immediately triggered sharp global market reactions: international oil prices jumped significantly, and the yield on the UK’s 10-year government bond rose by 1.2 basis points to 4.969%. U.S. stock index futures edged lower, while gold prices fluctuated. Markets are simultaneously awaiting the Fed’s rate decision later today. The sudden escalation in Middle East tensions has reignited concerns about inflation prospects, significantly widening geopolitical risk premiums, with energy stocks benefiting in the short term while technology shares and other risk assets face downward pressure.
JPMorgan: Korea’s leveraged ETF deleveraging wave nears conclusion
JPMorgan stated that the intense deleveraging process in the Korean market since mid-June indicates that forced liquidations of leveraged ETFs have largely been completed, with hedge funds having executed approximately 90% of related actions and leverage ratios now returning to more acceptable levels. In a report, JPMorgan strategists including Mixo Das wrote that, overall, equity positioning in Korea currently appears attractive, supported by low valuations and solid earnings growth momentum. “As the market corrected, assets in these products have declined to approximately $17 billion,” the report noted, adding that the recent surge of capital inflows into leveraged ETFs has markedly slowed in recent days. However, the recent sharp stock price declines could still trigger additional deleveraging in the coming days. Meanwhile, many investors remain cautious amid the risk of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting and high expectations for earnings reports from mega-cap technology firms.
South Korea holds emergency meeting at 17:00 to discuss market stabilization measures
According to informed sources, South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol convened an emergency market meeting at 17:00 Beijing time with heads of the nation’s top financial regulatory agencies. Prior to this, Koo faced intense questioning from lawmakers during a parliamentary session. Amid severe market turmoil, Koo publicly apologized, acknowledging lax oversight in approving high-risk financial products, and stated: “We have prepared a comprehensive market stabilization package and stand ready to implement additional measures immediately if necessary to restore normal market functioning.” On Wednesday, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) extended its losses, plunging nearly 12% intraday—the second consecutive trading day triggering the market circuit breaker. The KOSPI has now fallen roughly 40% from its June peak, officially entering a technical bear market.
Top 20 pre-market trading volume stocks in the U.S.
U.S. Equity Market Macro Calendar Reminder
(All times listed below are in Beijing Time)
22:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories (thousand barrels) for the week ending July 24; EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories (thousand barrels) for the week ending July 24
Next day
02:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision as of July 29
02:30 Monetary Policy Press Conference by Federal Reserve Chair Waller
After-Hours Earnings
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、 $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ 、 $Lam Research (LRCX.US)$ 、 Qualcomm (QCOM.US) 、 $Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$ 、 $Silicon Motion Technology Corp. (SIMO.US)$ 、 $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ 、 Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)
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