① SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report since its IPO on August 4, and Morgan Stanley has warned that the company is approaching its most perilous moment; ② On August 6, shares worth approximately USD 100 billion will become eligible for sale, implying significant selling pressure on the stock; ③ Morgan Stanley believes the current share price significantly undervalues the company's AI business and recommends investors closely monitor the upcoming fourteenth Starship test flight.
Caixin, July 31 (Editor: Ma Lan) $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ will release its first quarterly earnings report since its IPO next Tuesday (August 4). Morgan Stanley stated in a report that the company is approaching its most perilous moment.
SpaceX shares debuted on June 12 at USD 135 per share, surged to as high as USD 225, and briefly reached a market capitalization of USD 3 trillion—surpassing Amazon and Microsoft. However, the stock has since declined to around USD 112, representing a drop of roughly 50% from its peak. Consequently, hesitant investors will be closely scrutinizing the information disclosed in this inaugural earnings report.
Notably, on August 6, approximately 911.5 million shares of SpaceX stock will become unrestricted and enter the market, equivalent to about USD 100 billion in unlocked shares. As a result, SpaceX continues to face substantial selling pressure, which could amplify stock volatility around the time of the earnings release.
Morgan Stanley noted that the most critical aspect of SpaceX’s earnings report will not be the financial figures themselves, but rather management commentary. However, the firm expects SpaceX’s earnings call to resemble Tesla’s approach—offering limited quantitative guidance and focusing primarily on directional updates regarding the Starship project timeline, deployment pace of computing infrastructure, and overall strategic direction for Grok and Cursor models.
Intense selling pressure
Morgan Stanley forecasts SpaceX’s second-quarter revenue at USD 6.75 billion, with an adjusted loss per share of USD 0.35. The firm also projects Starlink will have 12 million subscribers, generating an average monthly revenue per user of USD 65.50.
Morgan Stanley emphasized that investors should watch for any specific details on enterprise-level Starlink deals, a roadmap for horizontally scaling computing capacity to exceed 2 gigawatts by 2027, and joint model development initiatives between SpaceX AI and Cursor. Since the acquisition of Cursor is expected to close later this quarter, it is unlikely that the transaction’s financial impact will be reflected in the Q2 earnings report.
Morgan Stanley has set a price target of USD 300 per share for SpaceX, breaking it down as follows: USD 8 for space operations, USD 128 for connectivity services, USD 12 for X and Grok businesses, and USD 152 for enterprise artificial intelligence. The current share price significantly undervalues SpaceX’s AI business.
The near-term catalyst for the stock is not the earnings report itself, but rather the planned fourteenth Starship flight test, scheduled for late August or early September. A successful recovery of the Starship upper stage during this mission would demonstrate significant progress toward achieving full reusability.
However, prior to this, bearish sentiment was clearly stronger. Morgan Stanley noted that, at recent investor conferences, more than two-thirds of investors were bearish on SpaceX's share price performance through the end of this year. Moreover, early investors whose shares are about to become eligible for sale would not hesitate to sell SpaceX stock at current prices, as they have already achieved returns dozens of times their initial investment.
Editor/KOKO