① SpaceX will release its first earnings report since going public this week, with analysts expecting revenue of $6.88 billion and a significantly narrowed net loss compared to the previous quarter; ② The market is also watching whether Elon Musk addresses rumors of a potential merger with Tesla, along with updates on Starlink subscriber growth, Starship test flight progress, and AI development prospects; ③ Approximately 20% of SpaceX’s restricted shares will become eligible for trading on August 6.
Reuters, August 3 (Editor: Liu Wei) — SpaceX will release its second-quarter earnings report after U.S. market hours on Tuesday, marking the company’s first financial disclosure since its initial public offering in June.
As of last Friday, SpaceX’s share price had fallen below $110, reaching its lowest level since the IPO. This makes the upcoming earnings report critically important for investors.
The market anticipates that this report will lift the veil on key aspects of the company’s operations—beyond financial figures and performance metrics, it is expected to provide detailed insights into SpaceX’s accelerated launch schedule, growth in Starlink satellite services, and advancements in artificial intelligence technologies. Additionally, analysts and investors are awaiting an update from Elon Musk regarding potential merger discussions between SpaceX and Tesla.
Furthermore, approximately 20% of restricted shares will become tradable on August 6, representing a market value of roughly $116 billion, which is expected to serve as a liquidity stress test for both SpaceX and Nasdaq.
Strong Revenue Growth Expected
Turning to specific operating metrics: according to FactSet data, analysts expect SpaceX’s second-quarter revenue to reach $6.88 billion, with a net loss per share of $0.23.
By comparison, according to its S-1 filing, SpaceX reported revenue of $4.69 billion in the first quarter of this year, with a loss of $1.27 per share.
Analysts expect that the robust growth of SpaceX’s artificial intelligence (AI) business will be the primary driver of sequential quarterly revenue growth. FactSet forecasts that the company’s AI-related revenue will surge from $818 million in the first quarter to $2.18 billion.
Meanwhile, revenue from its launch services segment is projected to increase by nearly 35%, reaching $835 million.
The company's connectivity business (including Starlink and internet services) is expected to generate revenue of $3.83 billion, an increase of 17.5% compared to the first quarter. Starlink accounts for the majority of SpaceX's revenue, contributing approximately $3.3 billion, or roughly 70% of total first-quarter sales.
The Costs of AI and the Space Race
In addition to revenue and profitability figures, Wall Street analysts will closely monitor SpaceX’s cash flow and capital expenditure data, as both its Starship and AI initiatives require substantial funding.
Currently, AI-related spending has become a widespread concern among U.S. tech stocks. To date, the three major U.S. tech giants—Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Meta Platforms, and Amazon—all announced during their second-quarter earnings reports plans to increase capital expenditures this year to invest in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX’s capital expenditures reached $10.1 billion in the first quarter, of which $7.7 billion was related to AI, primarily driven by investments in infrastructure and data center construction. The company is expected to further ramp up its AI spending in the second quarter.
Beyond AI investments, as the space race intensifies, SpaceX is also facing rising costs for rockets and satellites. In the first quarter of this year, the company’s aerospace-related capital expenditures increased by 38% year-over-year to $1.05 billion, primarily due to investments in Starship launch infrastructure.
Capital expenditures related to its connectivity business surged 64% in the first quarter to $1.33 billion, driven primarily by rising costs for satellites and ground equipment as SpaceX expanded its Starlink satellite network.
Overall, analysts anticipate that SpaceX’s total capital expenditures in the second quarter will rise from $10.1 billion in the prior quarter to $12.94 billion. However, free cash flow is expected to improve from negative $9.06 billion to negative $1.1 billion.
At the same time, analysts project that the company’s cash reserves as of the end of this quarter will decline to $89.4 billion.
At the end of June this year, SpaceX raised $25 billion through its inaugural bond issuance to fully repay outstanding bridge loans, thereby strengthening its balance sheet. At that time, SpaceX reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $100 billion.
Starlink operations have attracted significant attention.
SpaceX’s Starlink business accounts for the largest share of the company’s total revenue, making its growth the most closely watched aspect of the business.
The company previously reported in its first-quarter filing that it had reached 10.3 million Starlink subscribers, excluding enterprise and government customers.
SpaceX has already partnered with multiple airlines and telecommunications companies, including United Airlines (UAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Qatar Airways, and T-Mobile. Emirates and British Airways launched their first flights equipped with Starlink Wi-Fi in April, followed by Virgin Atlantic and Southwest Airlines, which introduced the service in May and June, respectively.
Last Thursday, the company announced that the first batch of V3 satellites had successfully deployed their solar arrays and connected to the Starlink network. SpaceX launched this batch of 20 next-generation satellites aboard Starship Test Flight 13 on July 24.
According to data from KeepTrack, SpaceX currently operates more than 9,600 active satellites in low Earth orbit. This number is expected to grow further, as Elon Musk plans to build a mega-constellation comprising up to 100,000 satellites. Additionally, Musk has proposed constructing an orbital data center consisting of one million satellites.
Falcon 9 and Starship launch schedules
According to SpaceX’s official website, the company has completed approximately 90 Falcon 9 launches year-to-date. Analysts will closely track its launch schedule and order backlog to assess market demand. Meanwhile, competition is intensifying from companies such as Rocket Lab.
Earlier this month, reports indicated that SpaceX has begun rejecting requests for Falcon 9 launches scheduled beyond 2028, as the company anticipates transitioning to its Starship vehicle.
This means that details of Starship’s 13th test flight and the latest developments regarding the upcoming 14th test flight will be critically important.
SpaceX ultimately plans for Starship to become a versatile, reusable spacecraft for satellite launches, NASA missions, Mars exploration and colonization, infrastructure and cargo transportation, and commercial tourism.
Earlier this week, Musk posted on social media that if Starship achieves “immediate and full reusability” powered by liquid methane and liquid oxygen, its launch cost to orbit could drop to “well below” $100 per kilogram.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is playing an increasingly significant role in U.S. space defense programs. Last Wednesday, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX contracts worth $1.6 billion related to the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. The company had previously secured approximately $6.45 billion in contracts for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-ATMI) program and the Space Data Network Backbone (SDN Backbone) program.
Greater attention is turning toward xAI.
As leading U.S. AI firms—such as Anthropic and OpenAI—increasingly struggle to achieve profitability, SpaceX’s cost management in its AI operations may also face heightened scrutiny.
In its S-1 filing, SpaceX reported that its AI platform supported 1.3 billion accounts in the first quarter through the Grok AI assistant and the X platform. Over the past 12 months (through March 31), 117 million of X’s 550 million monthly active users utilized Grok’s features.
According to the IPO prospectus, the company also operates two data centers through its Colossus and Colossus II facilities, which had a combined computing capacity of approximately 1 gigawatt (GW) as of the first quarter. The latest financial results released this week will provide clearer revenue details regarding SpaceX’s recent lease agreements with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI.
Tesla merger rumors?
Meanwhile, speculation continues to grow that Musk is considering merging SpaceX with Tesla.
Currently, these two largest companies are collaborating on the construction of a semiconductor fabrication plant and frequently purchase each other's products. For instance, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX purchased $405 million worth of Megapack components from Tesla in the first half of 2026.
According to disclosed documents, Tesla has realized $1 billion in gains from its stake in SpaceX.
Last Friday, reports emerged that Tesla was considering spinning off its China operations, a move seen as paving the way for a potential future merger with SpaceX. Tesla China responded to these reports, calling them “false information.”
During this week’s SpaceX earnings call, the market will be watching closely to see whether Elon Musk himself provides any further clues regarding these reports.