This Friday is the last working day before the recess; if the bill is not passed this week, it will be delayed until September, when the Senate’s agenda will be even more crowded and legislative time harder to secure due to the approaching midterm elections.
Yesterday, the U.S. Senate released its agenda for this week, but the CLARITY Act was not on it at all.
Instead, a procedural vote on another resolution is scheduled. With the Senate set to adjourn on August 7, only 72 hours remain for the bill.
The Senate’s procedural hurdles are extremely cumbersome. First, a motion to end debate must be filed, requiring signatures from 16 senators. Second, the motion requires 60 votes to pass; even if all 53 Republican senators support it, they would still need at least seven Democrats to cross over.
It is precisely these seven senators who have stalled the bill for two months. Third, if the cloture motion passes, an additional 30 hours of debate must occur before a final vote on whether to proceed to consideration of the bill.
If fewer than 16 senators sign the cloture motion by Wednesday (Eastern Time), the bill won’t even get a chance to be voted down. Even if the motion is filed on Wednesday, the earliest possible vote would be Friday—but the adjournment deadline arrives then, leaving no time for actual consideration of the bill itself.
The primary sticking point in the bill remains its ethics provisions. The draft prohibits certain senior officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets before 2029, but Democrats argue that enforcement loopholes are too significant, as existing holdings and family arrangements remain inadequately constrained.
To date, the White House has not issued an official response to the revised draft. The Trump family has profited substantially from crypto assets, further eroding Democratic trust in the legislation.
Additionally, stablecoin rewards remain a contentious issue: banks argue the incentive mechanism resembles deposit interest and could divert funds away from the traditional banking system, while crypto firms contend it shields banks from competition.
The current compromise proposal bans passive interest but permits rewards from trading, staking, and platform activities (which is also why Ethena has performed well recently, as it stands to benefit if the bill passes).
According to Polymarket data, the probability of the bill passing by 2026 has fallen to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and 9 percentage points over the past month. Bets related to this outcome total approximately $3.7 million—down sharply from 74% at the beginning of the year.
Investment firm Bernstein warned that if the Senate fails to advance the bill before adjourning, it could trigger a wave of panic-driven selling in the market, placing further downward pressure on Bitcoin and the broader valuation of crypto assets.
Grayscale had already urged the Senate last week to move swiftly toward a vote, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly called for action as well. Industry representatives have collectively contacted Congress over ten thousand times, yet legislative progress has consistently fallen short of expectations.
This Friday is the last working day before the recess; if the bill is not passed this week, it will be delayed until September, when the Senate’s agenda will be even more crowded and legislative time harder to secure due to the approaching midterm elections.
Democrats have indicated that if a procedural vote can be initiated this week, it would at least provide some hope when Congress reconvenes in September—but that hope is dwindling by the hour.
Of course, if the bill is delayed again this week, market behavior suggests that investors have already largely given up hope. On the contrary, if the low-probability scenario of passage were to materialize, the market reaction could significantly exceed expectations.
Looking back at the introduction of previous crypto-related legislation, none appear to have faced such arduous progress—underscoring the significance of this bill for the industry.