Key Events for the Upcoming Week
After a disappointing nonfarm payroll report, inflation takes center stage—U.S. CPI could determine the Fed’s policy path in September
Following an unexpected decline in U.S. employment in July, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have cooled significantly. According to LSEG data, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike currently stands at approximately 44%, down from levels seen before the jobs report was released. Whether inflation data continues to cool will directly influence this probability.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday. Consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet project that headline CPI year-over-year growth will ease from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, while core CPI year-over-year growth is expected to decline from 2.6% to 2.5%.
If both headline and core CPI come in below expectations, markets may further reduce bets on a September rate hike, potentially exerting downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while growth stocks and gold could benefit. Conversely, if the data shows renewed strength, markets may be forced to reprice tighter monetary policy, posing risks to elevated U.S. equity valuations.
Against the backdrop of weakening nonfarm payrolls, record highs in U.S. equities, and investor sentiment reaching extreme levels of optimism, this CPI release is likely to carry significantly higher market sensitivity than in recent months.
CPI, PPI, and the 'fear-inducing' retail sales data arrive in quick succession, testing cost pressures and consumer resilience
Following the CPI release, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July will be published at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. In June, the final demand PPI declined by 0.3% month-over-month but remained elevated at 5.5% year-over-year. Markets are closely watching whether corporate input costs—particularly for raw materials, energy, and transportation—are being passed through to consumers.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. July retail sales month-over-month figure will be released. Widely regarded as a key gauge of household spending, retail sales data is often dubbed the 'fear-inducing data.' The subsequent release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and its one-year inflation expectations will further illuminate how high interest rates, energy prices, and slowing job growth are affecting consumer spending.
These three data releases will address three critical questions: Is inflation continuing to ease? Are business cost pressures abating? And can U.S. consumer spending remain resilient despite cooling labor market conditions? A combination of cooling inflation and stable consumption would support the ongoing soft-landing trade in U.S. equities; however, if inflation remains hot while consumption weakens, stagflation concerns could resurface.
Tencent and JD.com lead a wave of U.S.-listed Chinese company earnings, with AI investment and profit realization taking center stage
$Tencent (00700.HK)$ Will release its second-quarter results on Wednesday and hold an earnings conference call at 20:00 Beijing time. The market will closely monitor domestic and overseas gaming revenue, advertising monetization on Channels, fintech business performance, as well as updates on AI-related capital expenditures and progress on HunYuan models, Yuanbao, and WeChat AI features.
$JD.com-SW (09618.HK)$ Will announce its second-quarter and interim results on Thursday, with the earnings call scheduled for 20:00. JD Logistics, JD Health, and JD Industrial will also simultaneously disclose their results. In addition to retail revenue and margins, the market will focus on the impact of investments in new businesses such as instant retail on profitability, as well as external customer growth in the logistics segment.
In the semiconductor sector, $SMIC (00981.HK)$ 、 $Huahong Hongli (01347.HK)$ will report results on Thursday. Key focal points include wafer capacity utilization, average selling prices, capital expenditures, demand for mature-node processes, and progress in domestic substitution. Lenovo Group and China Mobile will also release earnings on the same day, offering insights into the demand trends for AI servers, AI PCs, and cloud computing services.
AI infrastructure giants deliver results for three consecutive nights, putting the U.S. tech supply chain under a stress test.
After U.S. market hours on Tuesday, $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ and $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ will be the first to report earnings. CoreWeave previously disclosed a revenue backlog approaching $100 billion; the market will scrutinize data center ramp-up progress, power resource availability, capital expenditures, and financing costs. Lumentum, meanwhile, will provide a barometer for demand in 800G and 1.6T optical modules and data center optical communications.
Super Micro Computer previously projected that fourth-quarter revenue would be near the lower end of its guidance range of USD 11 billion to USD 12.5 billion, but new orders have exceeded USD 60 billion. Market attention will focus on the pace of order conversion, delivery capacity, and whether gross margins can meet the updated expectation of 15% to 17%.
After market hours on Wednesday, Cisco (CSCO.US), and $Coherent (COHR.US)$ will release earnings reports, validating demand for AI networking equipment and high-speed optical communications; after market hours on Thursday, Applied Materials will set the tone for spending on wafer manufacturing, DRAM, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment.
Year-to-date, $PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$ has risen more than 80%, yet remains down over 15% from its late-June peak. Given elevated trading congestion, even if earnings surpass expectations, the quality of orders, profit margins, and capital expenditure guidance could determine the stock’s price reaction.
Unitree Robotics launches IPO subscription; commercial aerospace, smartphones, and memory sectors all receive positive catalysts
$Unitree Robotics (688836.SH)$ will commence online and offline subscription on the STAR Market on Monday. The offering plans to issue 40,446,400 shares, representing 10% of the post-offering total share capital. Online subscription will be open from 9:30–11:30 and 13:00–15:00, with successful bidders required to settle payments on August 12. As a highly anticipated humanoid robotics company, investor enthusiasm for its IPO may serve as a sentiment indicator for the broader robotics supply chain.
In commercial aerospace, a Notice to Airmen indicates that the temporary launch and recovery window for the Zhuque-3 Y2 reusable rocket is scheduled for approximately 7:40 AM on Tuesday. This mission is expected to again validate vertical recovery of the first stage, though the exact timing remains subject to official confirmation.
At 06:00 Beijing time on Thursday, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ A 'Made by Google' launch event will be held, with the anticipated release of the Pixel 11 series and next-generation wearables. The extent of Gemini integration on mobile devices will be the key highlight.
At 21:00 on the same day, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ an investor day will be held, with market focus on NAND supply-demand dynamics, capital expenditure, the high-bandwidth flash memory roadmap, and long-term margin targets.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates steady, while three major monthly oil market reports are set for release.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 12:30 on Tuesday, followed by a press conference at 13:30. Markets widely expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35%. Key attention will center on whether signs of easing inflation, weakening labor market conditions, and housing sector risks prompt the central bank to signal potential future rate cuts.
The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting at 07:50 on Monday. Market participants will scrutinize the document for insights into policymakers’ views on inflation, the yen, and the pace of future policy normalization.
In energy markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, followed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC monthly oil market reports on Wednesday. Following last week’s sharp decline in oil prices, assessments of global supply-demand balances, production levels, and inventory data in these reports could further influence inflation expectations.
Key earnings calendar for the new week
Earnings reports for the new week in Hong Kong and U.S. markets will be led by leaders in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, internet services, and consumer sectors.
Monday (August 10)
Keywords: Bank of Japan meeting minutes; Eurozone investor sentiment; Rocket Lab earnings report
On the economic data front, at 07:50, Japan’s June trade balance will be released; at 16:30, the Eurozone’s August Sentix Investor Confidence Index will be published.
Regarding key financial events, at 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting, with markets closely watching committee members’ views on inflation risks, the yen, and the timing of potential rate hikes; Unitree Technology will launch online and offline subscription for its STAR Market IPO; $Changxin Technology (688825.SH)$ It has been included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, effective as of that date.
On the earnings front, U.S. stocks:$Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR.US)$will release its earnings report before the market opens;$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$、$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$、$Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$will report earnings after the market closes. Hong Kong-listed stocks$FIT HON TENG(06088.HK)$、$Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd. (03990.HK)$Release financial results.
Tuesday, August 11
Keywords: Lumentum, Super Micro Computer earnings; Japanese equity market closed
On the economic data front, at 18:00, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July will be released; at 20:15, the weekly change in U.S. ADP employment for the week ending July 25 will be published; at 22:00, the annualized total existing home sales for July in the U.S. will be announced, with market expectations at 4.07 million units, compared to the previous reading of 4.09 million units.
On the financial events front, at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, with markets expecting the cash rate to remain at 4.35%; at 13:30, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference.
On the earnings front, U.S. stocks:$Sea(SE.US)$、Tencent Music (TME.US)will release financial results before market open;$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$、$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$、$Lumentum (LITE.US)$and$CAVA Group (CAVA.US)$will report earnings after the market closes. Hong Kong-listed stocks$China Tower (00788.HK)$、$MMG (01208.HK)$、$Master Kong Holdings (00322.HK)$、$China Literature (00772.HK)$Release financial results.
Markets closed: The Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan is closed for one day due to Mountain Day.
Wednesday, August 12
Key highlights: U.S. July CPI, Tencent, Coherent earnings
Economic data: At 04:30, the API weekly crude oil inventory report for the week ending August 7 will be released; at 14:00, Germany’s final July CPI monthly rate will be published; at 20:30, the highly anticipated U.S. July CPI and core CPI figures will be released, with the headline CPI expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, and core CPI projected to increase 0.20% month-over-month and 2.50% year-over-year; at 22:30, the EIA weekly crude oil inventory report for the week ending August 7 will be released.
Key events: At 00:00, the EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; at 16:00, the IEA publishes its monthly Oil Market Report; the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report release time is yet to be confirmed, typically issued between 18:00 and 21:00.
Earnings announcements: Hong Kong stocks$Tencent (00700.HK)$release results. U.S. stocks$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$、$WeRide (WRD.US)$Pre-market earnings release,$Coherent (COHR.US)$、$Cerebras Systems(CBRS.US)$、 Cisco (CSCO.US), and$Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US)$ will release earnings after the market close.
Thursday, August 13
Key topics: U.S. PPI; Fed officials' speeches; Western Digital Investor Day; SMIC earnings
On the economic data front, at 1:00 AM, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction results will be released; at 2:00 PM, the UK’s preliminary annual GDP growth rate for Q2, along with June industrial production and manufacturing output data, will be published; at 5:00 PM, the eurozone’s month-over-month industrial production for June will be announced; at 8:30 PM, the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 and the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with the PPI month-over-month forecast at 0.20%; at 10:30 PM, the U.S. EIA natural gas inventory report will be issued.
On the financial events front, at 6:00 AM, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ Google will hold its Made by Google product launch event; at 8:15 PM, Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed and a 2026 FOMC voter, will deliver remarks; at 8:40 PM, Tom Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed and a 2027 FOMC voter, will speak on the economic outlook; at 9:00 PM, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ will host an investor day.
On the earnings front, U.S. stocks:$JD.com (JD.US)$、$GDS Holdings (GDS.US)$Pre-market earnings announcements,Applied Materials (AMAT.US)Post-market earnings releases. Hong Kong-listed stocks$China Mobile (00941.HK)$、$SMIC (00981.HK)$、$Lenovo Group (00992.HK)$、$Huahong Hongli (01347.HK)$released their earnings results.
Friday, August 14
Key indicators: U.S. retail sales; University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Eurozone GDP; RBA hearing
On the economic data front, at 14:45, France’s final July CPI month-over-month reading will be released; at 17:00, the Eurozone’s revised year-over-year GDP for Q2, final quarterly employment change, and June trade balance will be published; at 20:30, the U.S. July retail sales month-over-month figure will be released, with a market expectation of 0.30%, compared to the prior reading of 0.20%; at 22:00, the U.S. preliminary one-year inflation expectations for August, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and June business inventories month-over-month will be announced, with the consumer sentiment index expected at 54 versus the prior 55.2.
Regarding key events, at 07:30, RBA Governor Bullock will appear at a hearing. China’s refined oil prices will enter a new adjustment window, with the exact timing yet to be confirmed.
Other notable events include the filing deadline for U.S. institutional 13F holdings reports for Q2. Market participants can use these disclosures to observe changes in allocations by large hedge funds and asset managers across technology, energy, and financial sectors as of end-June. However, note that 13F filings only disclose certain long positions and are subject to a reporting lag of approximately 45 days.
Wishing fellow investors a successful week ahead!
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