Key Events for the Upcoming Week
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting were released on Thursday, with hawk-dove分歧 yet to be resolved.
At 02:00 on Thursday (August 20), Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting. At the July meeting,Federal Open Market Committeethe Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
However, these minutes are essentially "lagging material." Since the conclusion of the July meeting, U.S. economic data has generally weakened: non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, the year-on-year CPI growth rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, the PPI remained flat month-on-month, and retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.6%. These data points collectively diminish the necessity for an immediate rate hike in September, making "continued observation" the current baseline market expectation.
If the minutes indicate that support for a rate hike is largely confined to the three dissenters, and if Friday's PMI figures continue to cool, expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in September will be further reinforced. This could put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while potentially providing support for technology growth stocks and gold. Conversely, if the minutes reveal that more officials are nearing support for a rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may rise again, even amidst recent weak data.
Progress made on "shipping route plan" for the Strait of Hormuz, but navigation has not yet resumed; oil prices face two-way risks
U.S.-Iran tensions will remain the largest unscheduled risk next week. According to foreign media reports, Iran and Oman appear to be gradually reaching an agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides having agreed on shipping routes through this critical waterway. A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that finalizing a "shipping map" is part of a broader agreement to manage shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz.
Next week, focus should be placed on four key signals: whether Iran and Oman officially issue a joint statement; whether the United States proposes reciprocal conditions for lifting the blockade; whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the U.S. military adjust their maritime operations; and whether the number of crude oil tankers and shipping volumes show consecutive days of improvement.
If a joint statement is issued and the United States simultaneously signals the lifting of the blockade, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices is expected to decline. If the two sides fail to compromise or if another vessel attack occurs in the strait, oil prices still face the risk of a second surge, and defensive assets such as gold may also find support. Changes in oil prices will, in turn, affect U.S. inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Seoul AI Summit to be held from August 19 to 21
The 2026 Seoul AI Summit & Expo will be held from August 19 to 21. The conference brings together $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ (Google DeepMind / Google Cloud),$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$(Microsoft Research),$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, LG AI Research, and other global technology leaders.
Hong Kong stocks face a super earnings week! Alibaba, Kuaishou, Baidu, Xiaomi Group, Pop Mart, and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable all take the stage.
Entering the second half of August, the Hong Kong stock earnings season reaches its peak. Market focus will expand beyond internet giants to include consumption, optical communications, semiconductors, telecommunications, finance, non-ferrous metals, and US-listed consumer retail sectors. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ 、 $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ 、 $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $POP MART (09992.HK)$ 、$YOFC (06869.HK)$、$ZJ INNOLIGHT (03308.HK)$、$GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$A batch of star companies will make a collective appearance.
Among them,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$It will announce its Q1 FY2027 earnings report on August 20, Beijing time. This marks another complete quarterly report following Alibaba's restructuring into four major business segments. The market's core focus lies on the resilience of domestic e-commerce GMV and revenue growth, as well as whether the Cloud Intelligence Group can accelerate its AI-driven growth. How intelligent upgrades, supported by large AI models and Tongyi Qianwen, translate into advertising efficiency, merchant operations, and consumer experience will be a key window for evaluating Alibaba's 'AI + Cloud + Consumption' strategy. Positive signals from revenue and user ecosystem metrics would further bolster market confidence in the long-term value of tech leaders.
Hang Seng Index semi-annual review results released; CICC predicts Zhipu and MINIMAX likely to be included in the index.
Hang Seng Indexes Company announced that it will release the results of the Hang Seng Indexes Series review for the second quarter of 2026 after trading hours on Friday, August 21, 2026. According to the announcement, changes to the constituents of the first group and second group of indices in the Hang Seng Indexes Series will take effect on Monday, September 7, 2026, and Monday, September 14, 2026, respectively.
Based on the quantitative adjustment methodology of the Hang Seng Index and validated against historical rebalancing logic, CICC calculated that$ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259.HK)$、 $Z.AI (02513.HK)$ 、$MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$Eight stocks, including [names omitted], meet the inclusion criteria and rank among the top potential candidates.
Key earnings calendar for the new week
Monday (August 17)
Keywords: China's July industrial value-added, retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed asset investment data; South Korean stock market holiday; Geely Auto and Shanghai Fudan University Microelectronics earnings
Regarding economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential property sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities at 9:30. At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. Additionally, data on China's year-on-year total retail sales of consumer goods and year-on-year industrial value-added for enterprises above designated size in July will be released.
Regarding earnings,$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ 、 $SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385.HK)$ and other companies will announce their financial reports.
Regarding market closures, the Korea Exchange in Seoul will be closed for one day due to the compensatory holiday for Liberation Day.
Tuesday (August 18)
Keywords: Xiaomi Group/Baidu/GigaDevice earnings
Regarding earnings,$CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$、 $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ and other companies will release their financial reports on that day.
Wednesday (August 19)
Keywords: Seoul AI Summit, Hong Kong Exchange/Kuaishou/Hengrui Pharma earnings
Regarding financial events, the 2026 Seoul AI Summit & Exhibition will be held from August 19 to 21.
Regarding earnings, $HKEX (00388.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ 、 $HENGRUI PHARMA (01276.HK)$ 、$SICC (02631.HK)$、$KINGSOFT CLOUD (03896.HK)$ and other companies will release their financial reports.
Thursday (August 20)
Keywords: FOMC meeting minutes, China LPR, Alibaba/Pop Mart/NetEase earnings
Regarding economic data, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) as of August 20 will be released at 9:00; the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 will be released at 20:30.
In terms of economic events, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 02:00.
Regarding earnings, $POP MART (09992.HK)$ 、 $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ 、$NTES (09999.HK)$、$Walmart (WMT.US)$ and other companies will release their financial reports.
Friday, August 21
Keywords: Hang Seng Index review results; earnings of Zhongji Innolight, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Ke Holdings, and Zijin Mining
In terms of economic events, Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of the second quarter 2026 review of the Hang Seng Index Series.
Regarding earnings,$ZTE (00763.HK)$、 $ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ 、 $ZJ INNOLIGHT (03308.HK)$ 、 $YOFC (06869.HK)$ 、 $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ and other companies will announce their financial reports.
Wishing fellow investors a successful week ahead!
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Edited by Jeffy