Stephen Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, noted that Waller has expressed a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged. The current voting alignment for the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting stands at 6 votes for holding rates steady against 5 votes for a hike. Governor Powell’s stance remains unclear, potentially making him the decisive vote. With less than two weeks remaining until the meeting, the probability of a rate hike is effectively nearing a 50/50 split, with Powell’s silence serving as a source of uncertainty.
With less than two weeks remaining until the Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest rate meeting, the voting landscape is highly contentious, and Powell’s silence has become the market’s greatest uncertainty.
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, pointed out on social media that beyond the interplay of macroeconomic data, the voting dynamics are becoming a key factor influencing the current policy direction of the Federal Reserve. He wrote:
I have always believed that watching the Federal Reserve now is essentially about counting votes.
As Federal Reserve Governor Waller recently indicated a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged, Bianco summarized the current vote count as: 6 votes for holding steady versus 5 votes for raising rates, with one vote still uncommitted—that of Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
Powell: Deliberately Low-Key, Yet a Critical Variable
Bianco noted that Powell has not made any public remarks since the May press conference, stating that “he wishes to fade from the public eye.”
In Bianco’s view, this strategy has its context: Trump’s continued criticism of the Federal Reserve has raised concerns within the Committee regarding its independence, leading FOMC voting members to increasingly anchor their positions through more explicit public statements.
However, Powell’s silence is now creating uncertainty instead. Bianco wrote:
If everyone votes in line with their public statements, Powell's vote will be decisive.
Probability of a rate hike: effectively 50/50
Bianco’s conclusion is direct and clear:
This is why, with less than two weeks remaining before the meeting, the probability of a rate hike is effectively 50/50.
On August 30, he had previously predicted that the vote on September 16 would end in a 7–5 split, but the direction was uncertain—“I am just unsure whether it will be 7–5 for a hike or 7–5 to hold.”
Currently, with Waller siding with the camp favoring holding rates steady, the hold faction temporarily leads 6–5, but Powell’s vote can still tip the balance, leaving the final outcome undecided.
Bianco believes that Trump’s continued pressure on the Federal Reserve is an important backdrop for understanding the current divergence in voting preferences.
He stated that concerns over independence have led FOMC members to increasingly clarify their positions through public statements rather than relying on internal negotiations to reach consensus. This allows external observers to track policy directions relatively clearly by “counting votes.”
Since 1936, there has never been a 6–6 voting result. The closest instances were the 6–5 splits in 1963, 1964, and 1973. The U.S. Federal Reserve Act contains no provisions for tied votes. He wrote:
Speculatively, this implies maintaining the status quo, as no agreement has been reached, and the Federal Reserve will continue to keep the federal funds rate stable. Of course, they could agree to hold a second (or third) vote until the tie is broken.
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